american idol *lock*

[GrannyMae]

the last singer standing will have a penis. bet your baby's college fund.

therefore, the play of the week is this:

after eliminations wednesday, purchase two contracts each of all remaining male contestants EXCEPT mario (this purchase should be well under $100).

then, buy 10 contracts of anthony federov. these will probably be dumped before the end, but you should be able to get him for under 5.

finally, if you want to make some money and don't mind having it locked up, short mario. he can't win

future market url
http://wsex.com/market/AMERIDOL-2005.html

contestants url
http://idolonfox.com/contestants/



http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/u/rockband.gifhttp://bestanimations.com/Music/Dancers/Dancer-07.gif http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/u/rockband.gif




mae out

[B00T]

After reading Astro's post I thought of this guy. When he got the ticket to Hollywood I said to my gf "mark my words, this guy is goin to win"

Just echoing the thought of Anthony Federov.

[rusty JEDI]

American Idol lock is selling Anwar Robinson short.

He has no chance.

rJ

[rusty JEDI]

Vazquea has gone from 16-20 to 21-25
Michayla Gordon from 1-3 to 3-5


I could now sell and end this years idol on a profit.

rJ

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
finally, if you want to make some money and don't mind having it locked up, short mario. he can't win

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
finally, if you want to make some money and don't mind having it locked up, short mario. he can't win

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

I am with Astroglide on this one.

rJ

[GrannyMae]

here's the poop.

the entire vaginal field can be scratched (there is a joke in there but i am too tired)

mario can be scratched.

so, you scratch the chalk pick (mario) and are left with the dangling, remaining penises after elimination.

the cost of this 9 man field will likely be approx $40. it is a $100, 1pay. if you invest all your idol wad on that field you would be guaranteed a return of 60 points as long as a non-mario male is the weiner (it will be)

as the top 10 approach, you would dump some of these 9 that have no shot at advancing but are overpriced and either be on a freeroll or roll it into the inevitable winner.

the winner will be apparent in 3 weeks, but this is the only week that there is a betting play like this available.

of course, if you are a tone-deaf canadian it really is a waste to think this deeply. you just have to take my word on it.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/u/djsmile.gif

[lorinda]

No frills bet.

Male winner 8/11 (That's, er -137.5) at Paddy Power.

I know nothing about the show, just thought the bet might save everyone a lot of messing about /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
finally, if you want to make some money and don't mind having it locked up, short mario. he can't win

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

i will sell you up to 5 contracts @ $22 each, but they have to be held to the very end.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]


Male winner 8/11

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i no understand. 8/11 is the bid and ask? what does it pay?

edit: that mean i lay 137.5 to win 100? what is the url lori?

[lorinda]

8/11 is a straight bet.

Bet 11, make 8 profit (return 19).

You can bet on a female winner at even money.

Lori

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
finally, if you want to make some money and don't mind having it locked up, short mario. he can't win

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

i will sell you up to 5 contracts @ $22 each, but they have to be held to the very end.

[/ QUOTE ]


I bought him at $20 yesterday.

rJ

[GrannyMae]

gotcha

found the website. i *really* like that bet. do we know if this place is reputable?

ty ty

[GrannyMae]

I bought him at $20 yesterday

so you can make $1 if you dump now?

selllllllllllllllllllllllll

kidding of course. he will have some upward movement perhaps but can't win so they are worthless for long term. you may be able to ride it up 10 or 20 points tho. hold it until top 10. NO longer imo

[lorinda]

As far as I know they are fine, however I don't know the rules on Americans there (A lot of our stuff has strict quarantine now).

Lori

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
i will sell you up to 5 contracts @ $22 each, but they have to be held to the very end

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm already in starting at 20

[rusty JEDI]

Finally something in the IG worth discussing again.

Tone deaf Canadian. I know you're not talking about me. Is astroglide Canadian?

rJ

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i will sell you up to 5 contracts @ $22 each, but they have to be held to the very end

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm already in starting at 20

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand that. they are $25 now tho. i was letting you load up on the cheap.

ok, don't come whining when they cost you $40 and you are still buying

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/q/bawling.gif

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]


ok, don't come whining when they cost you $40 and you are still buying

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/q/bawling.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


Tell the truth here. Can you say you havent bought some Marios already just with the plan to sell early when he does go up by 10 points?

rJ

[astroglide]

you're failing to point out why mario can be scratched. if it's a guaranteed male win, who are you saying CAN actually win it? the only possibles i can see are mario, david, anwar, travis, and nikko. of those, i don't think any of them are nuking (or even beating) mario in talent/star quality.

david lacks experience, anwar is too old/cheesy, travis has ego/humor that should be off-putting to most of the audience, and nikko needs a personality/style transplant. in terms of winnability, i don't see a weakness in mario. his range isn't exceptional but he can punch what he has and his looks/charisma/stage presence are peerless in the competition. and i even hate that hat thing and the fact that usher is tied with jt for his favorite male pop star.

[rusty JEDI]

2.5 hours after your post Fedorov is up to 5-7 from his original 3-5.

Can this all be zoo buys?

rJ

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as I know they are fine, however I don't know the rules on Americans there (A lot of our stuff has strict quarantine now).

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="green"> Response (Marie Hogan) 22/02/2005 10:24 PM
Dear Granny,

Thank you for your mail.

Unfortunately, due to the gambling laws in the US, we cannot accept any bets from customers registering from the United States using a credit/debit card from an American bank.

We sincerely apologise for this inconvenience.

However, any customer who has an Irish/UK address with a card registered to a UK or Irish bank can continue betting with us.
</font>

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
2.5 hours after your post Fedorov is up to 5-7 from his original 3-5.

Can this all be zoo buys?

rJ

[/ QUOTE ]


5 minutes later Federov is up to 7-9.

Everyone ive bought has gone up except Constantine.I knew he wouldn't after last night, but he will move before hes finished.

So far ive got some Vazquez, Federov, Constantine, and Michayla Gordon

rJ

[jerome baker]

try 7-9

[GrannyMae]

Tell the truth here. Can you say you havent bought some Marios already just with the plan to sell early when he does go up by 10 points?

wayyy too early to manipulate my fellow zoo members
(though i did buy my blondie boy contracts before posting)

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/v/hairraise.gif

i don't know yet who will win, i just know who won't. that list has mario on it.

[GrannyMae]

who are you saying CAN actually win it?

i have it down to 5 possible. 2 of them tanked last night.

no names yet

[astroglide]

completely ruling out the clear favorite at this stage of the game is simply dumb

[rusty JEDI]

AMANDA AVILA 7 10
DAVID BROWN 7 10
ANTHONY FEDEROV 7 9
CARRIE UNDERWOOD 7 9

I dont understand what makes the spread differrent in a futures market. Why a 2 point vs a 3 point buy/sell difference when they have the same sell?

rJ

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
try 7-9

[/ QUOTE ]

oops.

you see this B00T?

now you would only get 9 for $100, not 20. maybe wait till thurs.

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]


So far ive got some Vazquez, Federov, Constantine, and Michayla Gordon

rJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Constantine just went up.

I could now sell every single one of my people individually without a loss.

Tone deaf Canadian? Please.

rJ


p.s. 1 day in...gloating while i can.

[B00T]

Yea I see it, I dont give a rat's ass. If anything I will just dump some more into it.

I dont get impulses like this normally, when I do, I run with it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[astroglide]

i've got

anthony
constantine
lindsey
bo
nikko
nadia
travis
mikalah
carrie
mario

i think anwar, vonzell, amanda, and david are overpriced for right now but i guess we'll find out soon enough. i'm expecting a raise on carrie after tonight's episode, possibly the others because the bottom end will be finally appparent to all.

[BaronVonCP]

Sorry, i'm stupid.

[rusty JEDI]

Only 4 girls in the top 12 right now. There has to be some short term moving in here considering they sing tonight.

Any tips?

rJ

[astroglide]

carrie should improve on talent, lindsey could go up on talent, mikalah and nadia should coast for a while on image alone.

[rusty JEDI]

Seems like what happened is earlier today there were a lot of people that rose up in value with only 1 dropping and that was by 2 points.

After tonights show the market corrected and almost everyone dropped. Federov went from an early 2-4 to 9-11 after a granny endorsement, and now back to 6-8. All that with him not singing a second time.

rJ

[astroglide]

...and my 20 contracts on carrie at 8.3 (partial 8, partial 9) go up to 21. haven't watched the show yet. looks like mikalah botched it though. nadia didn't, and vonzell is back to reality. carrie's the only other one i ramped up on today though, most of them i just got 5. shitload of mario though.

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
...and my 20 contracts on carrie at 8.3 (partial 8, partial 9) go up to 21. haven't watched the show yet. looks like mikalah botched it though. nadia didn't, and vonzell is back to reality. carrie's the only other one i ramped up on today though, most of them i just got 5. shitload of mario though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Carrie was the best "singer" with Vonzell a very close second. Nadia was the best performer.

Voice wise Mikahla was very Cate Blanchett playing Catherine Hepburn in Aviator. Almost Fran Dresherish. Her exuding confidence also turned very annoying. Im sure she can still show value before the end, but will not go as deep as i originally proposed.

After watching tonight i think granny is over playing the boys. The final 6 will likely be 50/50 boys to girls.

rJ

[mike3076]

6881 posts ?
do you even have time to play poker?
or do you work here?
respond ASAP-ty.

[astroglide]

i think the male "field" is strong, but when you get down to specifics there are no "that's a winner..." types other than mario. i think the girls have more room for growth. my biggest concern with mario is that he will "fail to improve" because he's close to the top of his game already and it will impact the votes. i'm not planning on holding ALL my contracts on him (low 3 digits) until close but i expect to ride him past 60. if he doesn't get top 3 something is seriously wrong.

[Hirez]

and that he stole justin gaurini's schtick.

He's the favorite atm, but when has the initial favorite ever won? He'll be out 3rd or 4th probab.y

[rusty JEDI]

I did a bunch of reading tonight on the AI website forum. They have ranking threads all over the place.

Boys

Looks to me that they really like Mario, Anwar, Bo, and Constantine. (I still cant see Anwar making top 6)

Anthony very rarely shows up in anyones top 3.

Girls

There seems to be a lot of people that rank Aloha, Carrie, Nadia, and Vonzell somewhere in their top 3 girls.

Jessica Siera also seems to have a healthy following but i cant remember her performance and had to look up her picture to even have a clue who she was.

They seem to really be in love with Aloha, but im not a big fan and think she just had a good night. Long run she cant keep up with the better singers.

rJ

[astroglide]

fantasia never really had competition last year, so yes, the favorite won

[2ndGoat]

I have watched very little American Idol. Can someone explain why I male is a lock? Is it because of a primarily teenage female voting demographic?

2nd

[GrannyMae]

what does 'short' mean?

hi baron,

it just basically means you are taking the role of the book. you are, in essence, betting that this contestant will lose. however, it requires that you put up much more money that remains tied up until the end (or when you sell) because you have to have funds avail to $100 for every contract you short.

it is like the don't pass line in a home banked craps game where you have to have enough chips to pay the table if a seven comes, and the chips need to be there before the die are rolled.

best time to short is either

1. when someone is selling for at least 20 or so and you don't think there is a chance in the universe they can win. there must be a mortal lock on this outcome
OR
2. someone is selling for $80 and you think there is a very very good chance they will not win.

(risk decreases in shorting as contract price rises)

[GrannyMae]

completely ruling out the clear favorite at this stage of the game is simply dumb

sigh

this is the POWER of this play. to remove the chalk (that has no business priced that high in a field that large) and removing 2 of the other males via elimination tonight, then scratching all the females, allows you to buy the field for a ridiculously low price and then sit back and pray that a long shot wins.

this is the first time i have seen a betting opportunity like this unfold in the idol market. it relies on 2 needed outcomes, and only 2

1. mario does not win
2. no female can win

mario, while talented, is broadway. broadway won't win. he does not have "it"

the females proved last night that the ONLY ONLY threat is in carrie. however, while i predict carrie will top 4, i think she would need a miracle to top 3. if she top 3's, that is the end of the road for her.

making futures plays when the market is this large is crazy. all people should be doing is making small plays like my "buy 2 or 3 ea of all remaining males MINUS mario" after the show tonight. this is a couple of hundred dollar play that is speculative but has the possibility of a nice return for little $$.

mario's $25 buy in a field of 24 stinks of manipulation. there is no way that any talent-based reasoning can justify this price in a field this size.

that being said, here is a couple of plays i made last night at midnight when i could not sleep (i have to get this laptop out of my bedroom or i will be out of cash before the final 12). these are purely speculative

1. i picked up 40 aloha's at $3 buy. i will look to dump these at 15.
2. i picked up 50 judd's at $3 buy because i think he will go far and can't understand why his price is so low.

these are not bets placed with the intentions of holding them for long, but bets that have the potential to see a 12-25 point gain (which will allow me to freeroll my real choice for ultimate winner). these wsex plays for the next 3 weeks are simply business moves and have nothing to do with talent.

one observation i can make by looking at these numbers is that money on vonzell is all wasted $$. she could be going home tonight imo, yet she is the second highest priced female? if vonzell makes it past tonight, i can ASSURE that her current share price is as high as it will ever get.


the only thing i am certain about tonight is that this dude will be packing his bags. he has a great voice but his attitude won't play.


http://www.picturehost.co.uk/free.one/idol%20bye%20bye.JPG


and this lil' lady will probably be gone too (but i am not as confident as i am with scott)

http://www.picturehost.co.uk/free.one/idol%20bye%20bye%20janay.JPG

http://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoticons4u/music/musik33.gif




mae out

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
i picked up 50 judd's at $3 buy because i think he will go far and can't understand why his price is so low

[/ QUOTE ]

his price is so low because he is going to get knocked out quickly unless he pulls something out of his ass. i think that's a bad purchase.

you've been stating everything as if mario cannot win, but your motivation is the spread purchase. "if mario and a girl don't win, you make money." great. that is true, but it doesn't mean in any way that mario isn't going to win. all of the discussions here have been about who has an actual chance to win, not what the ev is of a given strategy. mario is the most likely person to win it. cutting him out for a strategy is fine business. actually saying he can't win is retarded.

[GrannyMae]

Can someone explain why I male is a lock?

i'm glad you asked this.

the answer is that this is just my opinion that i came to after watching some tivo of the audition segments and then the male show monday. it is only my opinion and i sure hope nobody ever buys anything based on my opinion. this is a gambling discussion board and me and canada like to show lube-boy how to make money on singers instead of full houses.

there was not a single male performer last year that can shine the shoes of the worst male this year and the demographics of the show scream for male talent. this year they got it in a big way.

[astroglide]

i made money betting idol last year too but took a couple unnecessary burns. the only piece of advice i took was the weirdo exit interview mentioned from paula the night the show didn't get aired because of some kind of conflict. that was a really good one though.

[GrannyMae]

IIRC, all you did wrong last year was sell 5 hours too early. i had 109 contracts on fantasia and almost dumped half of them pre-show because rJ had me reading the damn idol forums. it was a huge risk to hold them but my avg share price was like $37-ish so i shut down the pc and went for the score. got lucky tho. i still can belive that diana only got 1,000,000 votes less than fantasia. i thought it was not going to be close.

[GrannyMae]

6881 posts ?

yes, which gives me half of cracka's total and 70% of diablo's

do you even have time to play poker?

poker? why should i put my money at risk?

or do you work here?

yes. i pay them $1.93 a month to print my columns and they don't ban my ip. do you think i should re-negotiate?

respond ASAP-.

was that fast enough?

ty

you are very welcome


http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/k/loopy.gif

[SCfuji]

so how much of your 401k are you throwing into this "sure things" mae? =]

[GrannyMae]

mario is the most likely person to win it

http://techhelpers.net/e4u/drink/trink14.gif


i love you

please post this on every message board you visit.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
i still can belive that diana only got 1,000,000 votes less than fantasia. i thought it was not going to be close

[/ QUOTE ]

the degree to which i don't believe that is that i STILL don't believe it. i think it was a ratings decision.

[astroglide]

lost some on george huff basically because i liked the guy. man did that guy have profoundly bad song selection.

[scott8]

So I mis-clicked and then didn't catch it, so I bought 3x the amount I meant to in hillbilly Scott.
Not sure if that means he is a lock to win or be gone tonight. .

[TimTimSalabim]

I'm with Granny here. I don't think Mario has much chance of winning it, he just doesn't have the vocal chops, but he is the perceived favorite right now due to his charisma, so load up on the others.

I thought the women were very strong, as a group. I liked Celena a lot. Oh, and her voice is not bad either. Ok, I guess I'm not the main demographic /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

[revots33]

I have a WSEX question (never used it before)...

Do they take a commission if you win? For example, if I buy 1 contract on Mario for 24, and he wins - do I get $100, or do I get $100 minus some sort of vig like in a sports bet? And what if he gets to $50 and I sell then - do they take a cut out of that as well?

Also, can you "short" a contestant by selling a contract for say $10, and then buying it back when they get the boot and go to zero? Ex: Sell 100 Scott Savols for 2 bucks. Buy them back for zero when he gets voted out. Net $200. Is this possible?

And finally... anyone think it's worth plunking down a big wager on Jamie Foxx to win Best Actor (currently gotta pay 94 to win 100) - as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get?

Hmm this WSEX is gonna spell trouble for me I think... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Glenn]

It's too early to argue about who is going to win (at least in definite terms). At most, we should be talking about the final 6 on each side. There were two very simple plays yesterday that demonstrate what we should be doing now. The first was shorting Vonzell at 16/20 when she had not yet performed live. The second was buying Aloha at 0/2 when she had not yet performed live. Buying Mario now is a terrible play. Even if you like him, there is no way to know anyone has a 1/4 chance of winning with 24 people (most of whom are good) left. Personally, I shorted Mario at 20. I believe he has less than a 1/5 chance of winning. Even if he comes on strong though, there will be good oppoptunities to exit the trade before the end. Since the field is strong, the favorite with say 5 or 6 left should only be worth 30-40. Therefore, if he does come on strong in the next few weeks, there is plenty of time to exit the trade for a small loss.

final 6 men

Mario
Anwar
Bo
Constantine
David
Nikko

5 of the final 6 women

Carrie
Nadia
Vonzell
Sarah
Aloha
??


Gone tonight

Jared
Travis

Janay
Celena

Can we get this thread made into a sticky?

[GrannyMae]

Do they take a commission if you win? For example, if I buy 1 contract on Mario for 24, and he wins - do I get $100, or do I get $100 minus some sort of vig like in a sports bet? And what if he gets to $50 and I sell then - do they take a cut out of that as well?

no juice. it is built in that spread of the bid and ask. you will net $100 clear for all contracts.

Also, can you "short" a contestant by selling a contract for say $10, and then buying it back when they get the boot and go to zero? Ex: Sell 100 Scott Savols for 2 bucks. Buy them back for zero when he gets voted out. Net $200. Is this possible?

i'm not sure if you are interested in buying short or selling short but once a contestant is eliminated, there can no longer be any trading at all. you certainly can cover yourself tho if you have bought short and determined that the contestant you bought short is likely to win. there will also be some spread profit opportunities when it gets down to final 4

And finally... anyone think it's worth plunking down a big wager on Jamie Foxx to win Best Actor (currently gotta pay 94 to win 100) - as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get?

i would not pay $94 on a one pay for ANYTHING, including the sun rising tomorrow. that is an *enormous* risk.

[GrannyMae]

Glenn &lt;---- absolutely one of the idol masterminds. listen carefully to him

however

Gone tonight

Jared
Travis

IMO, both of these have enough talent to win it, but certainly did not perform like that monday. i just don't understand who you think will vote for scott. his voice needed to be like nothing you have ever heard to overcome that punkass attitude. he's got no redeeming qualities at all.

[TimTimSalabim]

Jared and David will be gone tonight, I predict.

[Glenn]

I think Scott will get enough sympathy vote because he is not a pretty man and "his father said he would never make it as a singer" to keep him in another week. I think just about every guy has a ton of singing talent; it will come down to who can mobilize voters.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure if you are interested in buying short or selling short but once a contestant is eliminated, there can no longer be any trading at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still a little confused, and haven't been able to find the answer on the WSEX website. What is the difference between buying and selling short?
And what would happen to my wager if they get eliminated after I short them?

For instance, let's say I think Mario Vazquez is overvalued at $23. I don't think he will win so I want to bet against him. What is the best way to do this?

His sell price is $18. So I place a sell order for $18 (I'm assuming I'd need $100 in my account to cover in case he wins). Now, what happens if he gets voted out tonight (won't happen, but just for arguments sake) and I still own that contract? Have I made/lost any money on this transaction?

[CLC]

I would like to understand this side of the equation better.

Basically I want to know how to bet on someone getting booted off TONIGHT, and how to place/phrase the bet.

Let's say I sell 10 Travis Tuckers for $2 each and he gets booted tonight.

1) How much do I collect?
2) How much do I have to have in my account to cover?
3) Can this even be done?

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
i picked up 50 judd's at $3 buy because i think he will go far and can't understand why his price is so low

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
his price is so low because he is going to get knocked out quickly unless he pulls something out of his ass. i think that's a bad purchase

[/ QUOTE ]

so far so good ^_^

[GrannyMae]

so far so good ^_^

oh stop. sit there with your boring ass chalk crap and cry later when mario is begging for a job sweeping the stage to raise bus fare home.

if you ain't picking up good looking $3 contracts to take shots, you are a pussy. step aside and let the big vagina play.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/bore.gif

[GrannyMae]

Have I made/lost any money on this transaction?

if you shorted an $18 contestant and he is eliminated, you win $18

to CLC: buying short contract(s) on a performer selling at $25 requires you to have $75 in your account for each contract and after the order is executed, these funds will be unavailable until the end of the competition or you trading the contract(s) again

[GrannyMae]

are they talking about blonde boys miracle voice in the idol forums? i see a big trach scar. wasn't he never supposed to speak again? is that getting air play?

[La Brujita]

Can I ask a very basic question? I bought four players before the show and they all advanced. Is my main value from hoping one wins or selling as they move up in price. All are in the 4-6 buy range so no big favorites.

I bought about 40 contracts fwiw.

[astroglide]

i've got $2500 spread around 15 people. none of MINE got voted off tonight! i might have paid $150 just to see your reaction to judd getting nailed, i really liked how smug he was when they were calling up the second line of guys. i said to my gf 'look at that smug [censored]. hey buddy, you're gone too!' and then he was ditched. priceless. made me think of you.

[astroglide]

that just depends on what level of risk you want. most people probably bail before it's over.

[astroglide]

a $25 ask price doesn't translate to "a 25% chance" just because the payout is $100. it's a live market, his value will go up and down a lot just like everyone else's. the values are based on where people are putting their money. but but if you would want to call top 4 a 25% chance, how about a bet that mario won't make it to the top 4? lay me 2:1 and i'll bet big on it. you've got 19 fielders running against him.

[La Brujita]

I figured as much I just put in a few hundred so it won't make me or break me. I suppose you can sell some of the shares on a person and lock in some profit, which I saw you mention above.

This is pretty fun actually.

[GrannyMae]

i've got $2500 spread around 15 people

u are a fukking psycho. this is time for small speculative plays. THERE ARE TWENTY LEFT. there is no way to know how this market will react NOR ample time and exposure for anyone to know who is going to win this.

the REAL money goes down at top 12

jeez, u are a degenerate!!


BTW, the total cost of all the males, minus mario is about 50. put all your cash on that field and pray for a dog to win. guaranteed 100% ROI, possibly much more.



http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/h0/sconf.gif

[GrannyMae]

I bought four players before the show and they all advanced. Is my main value from hoping one wins or selling as they move up in price. All are in the 4-6 buy range so no big favorites.


good poker answer..

it depends

post your positions and we will have a looksee

[GrannyMae]

how about a bet that mario won't make it to the top 4?

nobody would take that bet. he may very well be top 2. he just can't win.

mae out

[La Brujita]

I have 17 Constantine, 10 Anthony, 5 Bo and 10 Lindsey.

I bought Anthony on your rec, but don't love him. I really like Constantine for various reasons, largely because I think he has real talent and they have been hyping him.

Lindsey I like for two reasons, first she is pretty talented, maybe not winner material but good and second she is hot. I think when in doubt looks play a big part.

I am wonder that nobody has discussed race and voting in the thread. Perhaps it is too hot button of an issue.

My Constantines are at 3, I tried to buy more but they could only do a partial sale.

[astroglide]

so lemme get this straight

- you believe he will make top 4
- you think he has a good chance at top 2
- you don't know who else specifically will make it
- you somehow think that it's impossible for him to win

p.s. i'll sell you judd at $22 if you hold until the end.

[47outs]

You Americans are all silly over this American Idol stuff. It's like the new crack.

The thing is you all love the journey but when a winner is chosen everyone all of a sudden hates them!? They get ridiculed and become the brunt of jokes everywhere.

outs

[scott8]

For those that have done this before:
Will all remaining contestants now have their prices rise as their individual odds have increased to win?

[astroglide]

at this stage in the game going from 24 to 20 isn't dramatic, so no. i would expect things to start to creep up after next week's performances and it scales up quickly as the top 12 get run through.

[Glenn]

I honestly dont know what your problem is, we are talking about american idol. Unless you are a quant, I'm sure I can run circles around you in valuing a future, and I am quite versed in quantitative finance. I SIMPLIFIED for illustrative purposes. Sorry I didn't derive some differential equations that model the market.

Anyways, your bet that he will make the top 4 is dumb for 2 reasons. There is an obvious difference between him making the top 4 and winning. Also, you want me to lay you 2:1, which, even if all four finalists had equal chances of winning, would make it a significant loser for me.

You were the one that said Mario was a favorite to win. No one argued with you about him going far. Swing trades are tough, and buying someone at &lt; +400 with 24 people left doesn't look like it has much short term potential to me. You might be right, and if so, you'll win money and I'll lose money. I don't know why any further comparison of genitalia is necessary.

[GrannyMae]

I bought Anthony on your rec

this is not my pick yet. this is simply a choice for profit taking. too early to guess a winner.


any contestant is capable of breaking out and nobody will see it coming.

[astroglide]

there was a short window where anthony popped to 10 or so and i might regret not taking it because i'm not confident that he'll make a mark later. he should take part in a natural upward tick that will happen as the field whittles down though because i don't think his head is immediately on the chopping block.

[astroglide]

what my problem is? i offered a wager to you because you didn't think he had a 25% chance of winning. i think he does. you're turning into an indignant crybaby about it and there was no problem to begin with. i wasn't flaunting some sort of financial genius, but yours is so very impressive and duly noted. i guess there is a problem now but i won't see it anymore because you're ignored. so have a nice life.

[Glenn]

SWEET.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
any contestant is capable of breaking out and nobody will see it coming

[/ QUOTE ]

bold prediction but i guess you have to play it safe after pounding sand on one of your first specific namings. i'm out for blood this year granny!

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
are they talking about blonde boys miracle voice in the idol forums? i see a big trach scar. wasn't he never supposed to speak again? is that getting air play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt see anything about this on the forums. I spent time only in the ones that were giving rankings. I think that the forum rankings give a pretty good idea of the young voters who will call in 100 times in an hour.

I just finished watching the show and im at a huge disadvantage this year. Im at school and unforunately dont have a satelite like at home so i cant get the earlier eastern feeds. With the "live" show being 3 hours later i'm doomed to try and make good choices preshow without any quick sells or buys during performances.

I was very surprised to see Janay stay another week.

How come he doesnt say "Seacrest Out" anymore? Is he too big a star for that now.

rJ

[J_V]

You're a dildo.

[B00T]

Federov is goin far if they hype up his story one more time. When they mentioned his schtick amongst 400 other people its hard to remember. If they do some vignette on him and reitterate that stuff the American public will fall in love with him.

They eventually will take a fairy tale spin on him if he gets to the final 12 or whatever. At that point if they "push" him, he will easily be at the final 4. I think it will all come down to how they choose to market him. Granted this is if his singing is just average from this point forward compared to the group.

I do honestly believe he can deliver a breakout performance a lot more easily than the majority of the field.

One negative thing is I am unsure if the American public can cope with a "Federov" as an "American" Idol.

This guy is a volcano, it's just a question if he erupts in time.

[RollaJ]

Ok Im in. At least itll make watching the show more enjoyable.

5 ANWAR ROBINSON(31249) $13 (He will win if there is justice)
8 NADIA TURNER(31268) $8 (Shell go far on looks and a good performer)
10 AMANDA AVILA(31260) $5 (Shes hot so wont be voted out too early)
2 MIKALAH GORDON(31267) $3 (I had $6 left in the account)

[GrannyMae]

ANWAR ROBINSON(31249) $13

while nobody else here seems to like him, i think this your best play by far on that list.

anwar is awesome and i have been looking at him hard for a while.

the rest of your buys are good for toilet paper

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/i0/kloguck.gif

[GrannyMae]

just found it

<font color="green"> Bucks County's teen "Idol" is safe for now. Which might not be a good thing.

For his first performance for the critical call-in vote episode of "American Idol" on Monday night, Anatoliy "Anthony" Fedorov picked another ballad - Richard Marx's "Hold on to the Night."

The judges called his song choice a safe one for Fedorov, who has shown a preference for love songs in the competition.

"Good. A little boring," Randy Jackson said.

"Safe," Paula Abdul said, adding that Fedorov has great pipes and he should "go for it."

"Dull as dishwater … completely predictable," was Simon Cowell's assessment.

Will America agree? Tune in Wednesday night when the first two guys and two girls are sent home.

Fedorov of Lower Southampton is the first Lower Bucks resident to reach the finals of the popular Fox reality show. Doylestown native Justin Guarini, the first-season runner-up, lost to Kelly Clarkson.

Fedorov, 19, is proving to be a popular early favorite on the show. Before Idol judges revealed Fedorov made the finalist cut last week, his name generated 284 hits on the Google search engine. As of Monday afternoon, the total was 1,550. Fan clubs, Web blogs, Internet chat rooms - there are a lot of people who can't stop talking about this so-called blonde Russian who has been compared to second-season runner-up Clay Aiken. The online auction house eBay is selling 2005 wall calendars featuring Fedorov's photo.

For the next three weeks of Idol competition, the guys perform on Monday and the girls on Tuesday, with callers voting each night. The two Idols with the fewest votes each week are cut until 12 finalists - six guys, six girls - are left. Then the 12 contestants will perform each week with one eliminated every week until the final round.

<font color="red">As a child, Fedorov suffered medical problems and underwent a tracheotomy; doctors told his family he would never speak.</font><font color="green"> His family left Ukraine for the United States 10 years ago. After graduating from Neshaminy in 2003, he attended Bucks County Community College, where until about a month ago he was registered for the spring semester, said college spokeswoman Jean Dolan. A music major, Fedorov remains an active student according to BCCC records. He enrolled at the college in January 2004.



His first semester at BCCC, Fedorov took Voice Minor 3, taught by retired music professor Helen Holcombe. Immediately she recognized his talent, said Holcombe, a professor emeritus.
"He was really pretty good - excellent," Holcombe said. "I asked him what was he doing at the college?"

All about Anthony

What is in your CD player right now?

Marc Anthony

What’s your favorite type of music?

I love Spanish music, things like Spanish ballads and salsa. I also like soul — Stevie Wonder, Peabo Bryson, Michael Bolton.

When did you first start to sing?

Age 6

Do you have any formal singing training?

No

What other talents do you have?

I’m pretty good in sports.

If you don’t make it on “American Idol” what will you do?

Continue to find other ways to break through and also continue to go to college

What are your personal goals in life?

1. Become a successful recording artist.
2. Have a family of my own someday.
3. Help my family out.
4. Find a way to combine a relationship and my career to make it work.

</font>

[RollaJ]

If you read my explanations the only one on that list I feel may win is Robinson. The others Im hoping to trade and feel there is a good chance they make the cut to 12 contestants. I am sure Robinson and Turner will make the cut. I think Avila might because she is hot...... she was a pure gamble and would sell as soon as I could make just a few bucks. The other one was just because I had $6 left and I was able to buy 2 shares....... and while she doesnt sing that well the judges like her

[CLC]

[ QUOTE ]
I had $6 left in the account

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[GrannyMae]

i love constantine AND bo LB. they should make final 6 guys imo. i would keep these positions for now.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
If you read my explanations the only one on that list I feel may win is Robinson. The others Im hoping to trade and feel there is a good chance they make the cut to 12 contestants. I am sure Robinson and Turner will make the cut. I think Avila might because she is hot...... she was a pure gamble and would sell as soon as I could make just a few bucks. The other one was just because I had $6 left and I was able to buy 2 shares....... and while she doesnt sing that well the judges like her

[/ QUOTE ]

comprende..

all i am saying is that while i love nadia, i don't think she has the talent to sustain her into top 10 so you are likely looking at highest contract value as is. i don't think amanda will last long at ALL (hot or not, tho she is VERY hot. Granny can say this since declaring my lesbianism), and if mikalah does not drop the JAP/streisand schtick, she will not play to middle or southern america.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
while i love nadia, i don't think she has the talent to sustain her into top 10 so you are likely looking at highest contract value as is

[/ QUOTE ]
I suck! /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ QUOTE ]
and if mikalah does not drop the JAP/streisand schtick

[/ QUOTE ]

That was sooooo annoying...... but for somereason the judges liked it....... who knows. Time will tell. Worst case scenario I lose $200 /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[La Brujita]

Gran,

I am glad you are back and posting a good bit again. This is pretty fun and I have to say poker changes the way you view these things, a few hundred here or there is not a big deal.

My theory on AI (and I am no expert mind you) is somewhat similar to yours, there is a lot of value in some mid range picks now that we know who has talent and who does not. The thing is the higher priced picks are overvalued because we have seen over the years a lot can change in the next few weeks.

Completely off topic, tilt just set in out of nowhere this morning. Sure I lost a $800 pot with 75% pot equity but heck I busted JJ with TT and AA and KK with a set of sixes. I raised utg eight handed with A-9o and I was like ok time for a break. No more poker today. Funny thing is I am pretty solid at not tilting, it one of my big strengths.

[Back to non poker discussion]

I think the rockers will do pretty well, at this point I am looking for survivors not winners. I really think Lindsey is not a bad bet.

[revots33]

I picked up a few Federovs yesterday. He has a nice voice, but more importantly has a good story and the nice-kid next door quality that carried Clay.

I also have a few Nadia (undervalued compared to Vonzell I think), and a few David Brown (he was one of the best in the auditions but was pretty lousy Monday - think it might've been nerves).

Only bet a little but it makes watching the show with my wife more fun!

[astroglide]

i don't think federov has any 'easy' chance of making the 4. there are much more talented singers/performers in the competition and his female attraction probably cuts off at age 11. basically everybody i know that watches (friends, coworkers, etc) including women are already sick of the throat surgery angle. they're jaded pricks like me but i don't think the story has much steam left in it. aiken was a lovable nerd, federov is young/effeminate/callow and not a true nerd.

[astroglide]

i wouldn't expect many people to doubt that anwar will advance far in the competition. i think nadia is a fine choice, she should make it further as well. anwar can outsing her but she has charisma. it's interesting how unclear the effects of that are so far, we need to knock some more of the chaff out to see where things stand in that department. i would definitely put anwar over her but i think she will advance to the 10.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
and if mikalah does not drop the JAP/streisand schtick, she will not play to middle or southern america.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I live in the NYC area and no one I know can stand this girl either...

scary thing is that every year there's always one "goof" contestant that advances far just because people think it would be funny to see a bad singer win it. Think she might be that person this year. She can't win but her annoying personality gives her a chance to stick around a while.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
ANWAR ROBINSON(31249) $13

while nobody else here seems to like him, i think this your best play by far on that list.

anwar is awesome and i have been looking at him hard for a while.

the rest of your buys are good for toilet paper

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/i0/kloguck.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

as soon at everyone realizes that he looks like the guys from milli vanilli he will be gone the next episode.

mark my word.

Also, the fact that they didn't vote that fat retard off the show last night shocked me. Sick shades tool!

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the fact that they didn't vote that fat retard off the show last night shocked me. Sick shades tool!

[/ QUOTE ]

I was so close to depositing $10,000 so I could short 100 contracts and make $200

[astroglide]

he's definitely losing soon. i know buying runs up the market price pretty quick, so presumably a flurry of shorts will do the same in the inverse direction (probably affecting sell price not buy).

[GrannyMae]

Worst case scenario I lose $200

exactly, these bets should just be for fun. the only action you should be taking now are highly speculative buys just like you did. as you said, it makes the show 100 times more fun to watch. tivo helps too if you have no paitence for the 5 minute comm breaks, buffer 20 minutes.

i lost 150 on judd. i just moved another 200 over and i can assure you that they will all be $3-$6 buys that have little chance.

the only thing i am semi serious on thus far is making some profit off blondie boy and i am at almost 100 contracts collected (tho 22 of those are owned by a fellow poster who piggybacked because he does not have a wsex acct) i don't think blondie boy can win. he can however, easily return 25 points or more profit if the childhood throat problem gets some airplay. this profit will allow me to freeroll my purchase of whomever i think will win it (if not him).

but again, imo, carrie is soooo much better than ANY female at all and i think all money should be on her if you want a female. but it is too early to pick a winner and WAYYY to early to pay 25 for her in a 20 person field.

to put carrie and mario's (over)pricing in perspective, i think only 4 contestants TOTAL ever hit that share price last season, and certainly not before the final 12 were picked.

there is another VERY profitable play imo, and that is buying the male field MINUS mario and scott.

[GrannyMae]

I think the rockers will do pretty well, at this point I am looking for survivors not winners. I really think Lindsey is not a bad bet.

i love the rockers. bo has a voice that is amazing and constantine has that jim morrison thing happening that the chickies will love.

lindsey.. hmm. remember julia dimatto? she looks like her and methinks has the same future as her. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

re: your nice comments on me posting again, i have to admit that i have only been reading the 2 idol threads and a thread here and there. i could not tell you what the hell a brown thumb is and all the other stuff going on here. http://users.pandora.be/eforum/emoticons4u/smoking/rauch11.gif the volume of posts in this forum is out of hand, but i'll catch up next week. how is our friend?? say hello for me, ok?

[GrannyMae]

they're jaded pricks like me

occasional self analysis is good. it is even better when it is 100% accurate.

i did not say anthony would top 4. he may. i just have not seen enough. but i bought him at 5 so he does not need to top 4 for me to make nice scratch.

[GrannyMae]

Well I live in the NYC area and no one I know can stand this girl either...

and i grew up with girls with this personality, but not that strong. it is as if she is attempting parody. i think if she makes final 12 (doubtful), the producers will ring her in very quickly.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
tivo helps too if you have no paitence for the 5 minute comm breaks, buffer 20 minutes.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no way in the world Id watch that show without Tivo.... Or Iron chef america /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[GrannyMae]

Also, the fact that they didn't vote that fat retard off the show last night shocked me.

lol, while i would not classify him that strongly, i would think he was pretty close to bottom 2. he needs to pull off a HUGE performance this week to survive. i was surprised to see him stay but there are so many contestants that it is easy for things like this to happen until it gets down to 12.

[GrannyMae]

There is no way in the world Id watch that show without Tivo

UNFORTUNATELY, of you are going to be doing any 'day trading' later in the season, you have to watch it live. for now tho, tivo is Ok.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way in the world Id watch that show without Tivo

UNFORTUNATELY, of you are going to be doing any 'day trading' later in the season, you have to watch it live. for now tho, tivo is Ok.

[/ QUOTE ]


*Egad* I hadnt even thought of that...... do you actively trade while watching during the show?

[DrNo888]

Can someone explain how this works?

I see that for Carrie under Sell is 20 and under Buy is 35 and the last column is +300.

Does that mean it cost $35 to buy one share and only get $20 to sell?
If I buy one share at $35 and she wins, does that pay $300?

[RollaJ]

Ive never bet these before. Does the market basically not move till the next show now?

[Wahoo91]

I agree with the Federov value play and picked up some last night.

Also picked up some Constantine as every woman I know is in love with him (god knows why, I bet he sucks at poker).

Also picked up Nikko for $3, I think he will get some value in the next couple of episodes, people forget about him becuase he was the very first performer of all 24...

Also picked up some Travis Tucker, he is a smart clean cut guy that has an Idol look. Good value.

I would not touch Anwar at $16 that is full price my friends...

[Wahoo91]

I also am confused by the last column, what does the +316, +535, +3233 mean?

[astroglide]

ball's still in flight, dog. anwar moved down, vonzell moved way down, federov and constantine are up solid, etc. there's much less action between shows but the volume looks pretty decent for a thursday here.

[GrannyMae]

Ive never bet these before. Does the market basically not move till the next show now?

this is an early market, so there will be some movement that is driven *solely* by market activity and not by substance. if someone makes a big buy, the shares will rise but probably level off. as it gets deep into the season, there is very little movement 12 hours after the results show until the next week.

with the current format, next monday the price on most males will rise. then on tuesday, the female prices will go up and put the males back where they were.

on the day of the results show, there will be inexplicable movement due to rumors and due to people with big positions making trades.

when it is down to final 12 and there is only one performance show and one results show, there will be little or no movement (short of a contestant being arrested) between 12 hours after the results show and 5 minutes into the following weeks performance show.

to answer the earlier question, abslolutely there are trades to be made as the show is on air. in season 2, we knew who to buy and sell due to where they were placed on the couch during the results show. they got smart on that and plays like this became uncommon (though there still are a few). the couch position play in season 2 netted me $500 easy.

there is one play that has been consistent and they did not seem to adjust for it this week. the play is that the last performer is likely to be an amazing performance (the producers watch rehersals all week and know who is gonna kick ass each week). so, when the second to last contestants name is announced, the play is to buy the contestant that sings last. there will upward movement in that contestant and most times can be dumped 30 minutes later with a 5 point gain. this play MUST be dumped 30 minutes later because that artifical push will evaporate later that night and the next day.

they are so aware of these things that tip the dramatic hat, that they had seacrest do the most f'd up method to eliminate last night. i will say tho that the look on melinda's face last night was the most extreme reaction i have ever seen. very sad but oddly funny. it is as if she was angry at ryan for divulging the way he did. he totally blindsided her and she had no clue it was coming. priceless

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/4/jawdown.gif

[scott8]

So, what should you do if you are on the West Coast?
Completely scrap the idea of trading during the show on the east coast because even if you get info it will be too late?
Or is there decent info out there, like chat rooms or message boards that I should be reading?
Thanks in advance.
-SC

[revots33]

Pretty sure that is the "money line" - in other words how much you'd win if you bet $100 on the person to win. It's more for comparison purposes than anything else I think. For example if the buy price is 10, the money line would be +900 - if you bought 10 contracts you'd win 90 on each, or a 900 profit.

[GrannyMae]

west coast is distinct disadvatage if you are going to trade during show. only active day trader i know on west coast gets an east coast satellite feed or refreshes the page constantly here

http://forums.prospero.com/foxidol/messages/?start=Start+Reading+&gt;&gt;

[astroglide]

pretty interesting action. federov back on the rise, bo on the rise, nadia coming up strong.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
federov back on the rise

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe the masses arent with me but every time I see him I want to wedgie him. Every time I hear him I wanna puke

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the fact that they didn't vote that fat retard off the show last night shocked me.

lol, while i would not classify him that strongly, i would think he was pretty close to bottom 2. he needs to pull off a HUGE performance this week to survive. i was surprised to see him stay but there are so many contestants that it is easy for things like this to happen until it gets down to 12.

[/ QUOTE ]



Along these lines and the lines of those who hate Micalah. I feel both of these two will make the top 12. The reason being that this is a competition where you vote for who you like. It is not a competition where you vote for who should be gone. This keeps around a lot of weaker people who have a group of niche voters, or those who think its funny to vote for the fat ugly guy.

It will have to get down to less competitors before the above effect can be countered. For now we will continually see those get kicked off who are forgettable, or those who noone neither loves nor hates.

rJ

[RollaJ]

Nadia moves into fourth, 7 bid offered at 10

[astroglide]

i'm wishing i had more than 10 on nadia (priced in at 5.8 per). got 20 carries at 8.3 per though /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[RollaJ]

Y'all gotta remind me to vote earlier next season...... I liked Robinson from the first time I heard him

[Bytestream]

I checked over at FOX's American Idol discussion board, and Constatine (and Bo) dominate the talk and probably 80% supportive. Theres 1 thread about Constantine (started yesterday at 10 am) witha already 2000 replies (to put that in context, from what I can tell, it looks like a thread with 100 replies would be considered very hot).

I increased my Constantine stake by a few $7 shares. It would be a nice score if he won. Considering this is after a mediocore performance, I think theres no way to go but way up from here.

And despite Mario having one of the strongest male perfomances last week he seems to have very few fans and not generating much interest. The judges applauded him and his price responded, but I dont know if "the poeple" give a shiit.

Also there is a poll on the boards in which has Bo has been voted as having the best perfomance last week by a landslide.

[astroglide]

the charismatic/quirky people always take off on the teen forums

[Yeknom58]

Jessica seems to be rated extremely low but I though she was one of the better performers...can someone explain this?

[rusty JEDI]

I am a little surprised at this too considering where she shows up in the AI forum threads.

However my guess is its because she doesnt have her own style. If you dont have your own style or charisma then you have to be THE BEST singer and she is not that.

EDIT....shes also not the prettiest.

rJ

[Yeknom58]

If she can muster up something really solid one week and some of the other girls tank, I think she could coast to the final 12. Some of the other girls are speculative talent wise so this could easily happen. Listen to vonzell or lindsey, two likely top 12'ers, they have voices that could easily break on them and tank allowing a girl like jessica to shine. Jessica just seems so solid that I rank her has my 4-5th best girl. And what's up with Niko being even money with scott and travis??

[astroglide]

i don't understand how nikko's value is so low at all but just on that basis his future doesn't look completely bright to me. maybe a standout perf will get him adjusted correctly but it seems people have it out for him.

[Yeknom58]

"but it seems people have it out for him."

I also belive this is true.

I also think he can have a breakout performance though and a guy like bo or anwar could pick the wrong song and niko could have some upward movement.

[Twentysack]

So after reading this thread i got caught up in the hype of betting on American Idol. My question is: I bought 10 shares of nikko at 3. After reading some of the American Idol board and seeing the lack of support for him, would it be better to take the chance of him getting voted off and losing the 30 or selling for 2 and eating the 10 dollar loss. Thanks in advance.

[astroglide]

i think nikko has a decent chance of improving his standing with another performance

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
So after reading this thread i got caught up in the hype of betting on American Idol. My question is: I bought 10 shares of nikko at 3. After reading some of the American Idol board and seeing the lack of support for him, would it be better to take the chance of him getting voted off and losing the 30 or selling for 2 and eating the 10 dollar loss. Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]


In regards to eating the $10

I guess it depends on what kind of bankroll you have. Not total bankroll including poker but what you have set aside for American Idol fun. You could have a billion dollars but if you have set a hard number for your American Idol fun at $30 then i'd get out and diversify a little. If you have an American Idol fund of $300 then id just leave it for now.

rJ

[Twentysack]

Well my American Idol bankroll is $100 but i'm definately not adverse to risk considering im pretty much writing off this as a loss, so take the chance?

[rusty JEDI]

Id take the chance. I think he has just as much chance as going up a few points in value this week as he does losing value this week.

rJ

[Yeknom58]

Bingo..my thoughts exactly.

[rusty JEDI]

One thing i dont like about Osbourne Smith Jr. now Nikko Smith is that if it got a large enough following that he is the son of Ozzie Smith maybe it could hurt him. Something along the lines of having money already so he doesnt need the contract.

I dont think that will happen, but you never know.

Edit...He doesnt have the talent to win, but that does not mean there isnt value buying him.

rJ