Bubble AK; Need ICM Help

[rrunningriot]

Need some help calculating ICM for this hand. Villain was pretty tight so I would estimate at least 75% that he had a pocket pair. Was calling EV+?


Party Poker $30+$3 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t1055)
Hero (t1800)
SB(Villain) (t1550)
BB (t1520)
UTG (t2075)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="blue">Villian raises to 1450 (All-in) </font> <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>,
Hero...

[UMTerp]

You're getting like 2.5-1 to call with AK here. Of course you do it. And I'd guess his range is a little looser than you suggest - he thinks you're stealing.

[RobGW]

You don't need ICM for this. Its an instacall based on the pot odds.

[kspade]

Hijacking to ask for def on ICM - tried on beginner's board but no answer. Thanks!

[curtains]

very easy call here. Folding is very bad

[The Yugoslavian]

Why aren't you pushing this in the first place? Unless you're trying to goad someone to come over the top you should be allin here.

Since you didn't push I think you should still call. I hope you didn't fold, that would be ugly.

See Dethgrind's ICM tutorial (linked to on the ICM page) and do the ICM calculation for yourself. It's silly to ask the forum to do it for you. At the very least you should post an attempt to do it on your own before getting others to help you.

If you just need help on villian's pushing range here in order to do an 'accurate' ICM calc it would make sense to do one with your own read and then at least one more with a looser range of hands (since 75% pocket pair seems too tight here as it looks like you're merely stealing and not prepared to be allin with your hand).

Yugoslav

[curtains]

IMO most players shouldnt be dealing with the ICM.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

IMO most players shouldnt be dealing with the ICM.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are your main reasons as to why? I'd be curious to know.

Yugoslav
P.S. Did you play in the Amateur Team East? Did your team dominate?

[rrunningriot]

First post so go easy...

I made the mistake of letting the results color my thinking. Villian had JJ and I lost.

The reason I posted this (now) obvious question is for the bubble implications. With a solid chip stack, I wasn't looking to get into a fight. The raise to 600 should have been enough to steal so why go all-in?

Would the answer change if I was 100% positive he had pockets? Sure it's a coin flip and the pot odds are favorable, but do I need to fight that battle? I think so, but someone was trying to convince me otherwise.

[curtains]

Because too many people post plays that are obvious and should be understood due to general poker understanding, and instead rely on this program to magically calculate the results.
I didnt play in AM East, I went as a coach. Chessplayer friend of mine whom I went to high school with(Ben Johnson - approx 2100-2200), just came in 8th in the LA Poker Classic!

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Because too many people post plays that are obvious and should be understood due to general poker understanding, and instead rely on this program to magically calculate the results.


[/ QUOTE ]

ICM is not a program, it is a concept.

But I agree with you that posts like this appear to have the idea that the way to figure this hand is to turn off your brain, put some numbers in a calculator, and get the magic answer. That is wrong-headed and while it may give the man his fish, it won't teach him much about what to do next time and why.

ICM is a tool for learning, not an oracle for answers. It should be used, however, there is a danger for abuse if you approach it with the oracle mindset.

eastbay

[curtains]

Thanks for being more eloquent than me eastbay /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I just see too many questions where if the poster needs to refer to an ICM then they obviously have some major holes in their poker understanding.
It reminds me of chess, where I feel that too many amatuers put way too much value in computers, and use them as shortcuts that end up stunting their overall growth.
If used properly all of these tools are very useful however.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Because too many people post plays that are obvious and should be understood due to general poker understanding, and instead rely on this program to magically calculate the results.
I didnt play in AM East, I went as a coach. Chessplayer friend of mine whom I went to high school with(Ben Johnson - approx 2100-2200), just came in 8th in the LA Poker Classic!

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good. These are similar concerns I have about ICM myself. However, as long as I make sure I'm using it to reinforce or cultivate proper poker thinking, I should be ok.

If I play again, then I might run into Ben (if he plays in the LA area much). Unfortunately I'm a total fish and not planning on getting better so he'd clobber me. The West team I was on could have used a coach - or more accurately I could have - as I couldn't take down two very beatable higher rated players during the weekend.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
First post so go easy...

I made the mistake of letting the results color my thinking. Villian had JJ and I lost.

The reason I posted this (now) obvious question is for the bubble implications. With a solid chip stack, I wasn't looking to get into a fight. The raise to 600 should have been enough to steal so why go all-in?

Would the answer change if I was 100% positive he had pockets? Sure it's a coin flip and the pot odds are favorable, but do I need to fight that battle? I think so, but someone was trying to convince me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for the rude welcoming. Let's try that again:

Welcome to the forum!

Yeah, results oriented thinking doesn't help much in situations like this. AK is a great hand to go to the mat with at this stage of an SNG -- you're almost never behind much and often way ahead (not to mention you'll get free blinds a bunch of the time).

The reason to push is that it carries more weight and you might be able to get a couple of extra hands to fold that would either call or come over the top of you. Plus, if you bet 600 and someone *does* come over the top of you, there are so many chips in the middle that with a 50/30/20 payout structure you should be calling anyway (not to mention that you are *far* from a lock for 3rd place).

What if you were 100% sure he had pockets? Well, you can call anyway (although I'm not sure) even though you're a slight dog. But you'll never be 100% sure of anything in poker. Thinking that you're up against pockets 100% of the time here would be a huge mistake.

You should feel okay with your raise (and then subsequent call - if you did). You should feel better about just open pushing and feel horrible if you folded this.

Yugoslav

[UMTerp]

To expand on that a little bit, a push might fold hands like 44-77. And although it's definitley correct to call a raise from pairs like that at the odds you were getting, you don't really want a call. Your raise to 600 invites hands like that to come over top of you. They don't know that your hand is that good. It looks a lot like an attempted steal from the button to them.

As it turned out, the jacks would've called regardless, but there are a few hands he could've held were a push would've worked to your advantage.

[curtains]

btw I agree with UMTerp, I move allin preflop.

[hitdanutz]

While the pot odds argue for a call or preemptive push, it still comes down to a coin flip for continuing in the tourney, which is a good thing to avoid preflop at 2/5.

You need to either min raise (400) and try to see the flop before committing more chips, or push it harder and go allin. 600 seems like no man's land. I'd opt for min raise, and would then fold the Villain's allin and take my chances with 1400 chips at 3/5. This is the time in tournies where survival to the top 3 supercedes pot odd logic IMHO.

While many of you disagree with this play as too conservative, my ultra tight play with 5 left gives me a high winning percentage over time. I play more aggressive earlier and later than I do with 4-5 players left. Pot odds don't naturally account for the difference in finishing 3rd vs 4th.