ATTN: MTT Gurus - Am I misapplying this concept?

[ThrillFactor]

Empire 15K Guaranteed

480 start
down to 90ish
money at 50th

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: 7th - 50th place money means nothing to me. I play these low buy-in tourneys for a top 6 finish.

ANOTHER VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: Over the last 3 months, with the help of this forum, I have become much more aggressive in both my short-stack play (<10BB) and my 55/45 situations. Unfortunately, I haven't won a damn thing during that time and I'm beginning to wonder if I'm not misapplying those two concepts.

THE SITUATION:

Down to top 20% of the field.
My stack is about 7500
Average is about 5000
Blinds 150/300
I have KQo in the BB, folded to SB (average, unexceptional player) who pushes for about 1400 - 1100 for me to call.
I've got to believe his range of hands here is huge. If I win, I pad my stack even more. If I lose, it doesn't hurt that much. It takes my about 5 seconds to call. He shows J7s, so the read was good, but he wins the hand.

Cards happen, but the question here is should I have been calling here in the first place? Nice healthy stack with a good, but not great, chance to improve it. Call or wait till I can be the aggressor?


AN ORBIT LATER:

I have 6000-6200 chips, average is about 5500 at this point.
Blinds still 150/300
I make it 900 to go from MP with pocket 9s. Player on my immediate left pushes for 3K - folded to me, 2100 to call.
I've been sitting with this guy for 2 hours, and though we can argue the merit of my read if you guys want, I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs. I'm leaning heavily towards 2 overs, so I'm 55/45 to win.

3 months ago I would have laid this down without a second thought and taken my slightly below average stack and gone back to work (hell, 3 months ago I would have limped with the 99 to begin with). Now, I realize that I'm getting greater that 2 to 1 on my call and I'm a small favorite to boot. So I grit my teeth, call even though I've been losing every time I put myself in these situations, see his AKo turned up (read was good), watch the K hit the flop, and am left with a 1/2 average stack.

Cards happen, I know. But the question is, am I applying these concepts at the right times? At the two moments in question, given my good position relative the the rest of the field, am I risking too much with too small a chance of winning? Should I be waiting for the 60/40 hands with 1 - 1.5x the average stack? Should the 55/45s be saved for when I'm short-stacked or have >2x the average?

Am I picking the right spots to make the close gambles?

[Bernas]

The first one is an autocall.

The second one, if that is your read then it is a definite call. You are ahead in all but one of those cases.

[Roman]

dont let results bring you down, both plays are standard.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
dont let results bring you down, both plays are standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are they standard in the sense that if I lose, I'm incrimentally (sp.) losing my ability to utilize the big-stack advantage to accumulate chips?

MLG?

[MLG]

They are both good plays. The first one is an insanely easy call, the second one might be a little tougher, but you made what I believe to be an excellent read and call, it just didnt work out for you.

[schwza]

there's no reason to post the results. no one cares what the board cards were.

both are standard.

[pocketjacks]

Don't get frustrated at all. I had pocket queens last night in the big blind and everyone folded to the small blind who tried to steal my blind. He was at 800 in chips and I was at 2000, He raised me 300 and I took the option and put him all-in. He had J,6 suited and flopped two pair. Looking back at it, it crippled me instead of taking me to almost 1st in chips with 5 4 players left. I cannot even think about that as being the wrong play. Keep reading em well and playing it right, and from that point on the cards will do what they do. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[ThrillFactor]

I realize that I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but I just want to make sure that we're really thinking the situation thru.

1) If I fold I'm left with an essentially average stack. I like to think that I'm an above average player - let's go to work.

2) If I call and win I have a twice average stack and I'm a force to be reconned with. And BTW, I just so happen to be favorite to win the hand.

BUT

3) If I call and lose (which, also BTW, is highly likely) I drop to 1/2 average - 10BB - and I'm going to have to get lucky.



I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

In a ring game with the long term in our favor, the answer is clear cut and there is no debate as long as bank roll considerations are not an issue (which they shouldn't be). In a tourney, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe some small edges should be passed up IF (and only IF) a loss will do significant damage to your stack (insert your own level of significance - 25%, 40%, 50%...)



EDIT: I'm now discussing the second hand only

[sdplayerb]

i believe the first one is an extremely easy call.

the second one, i really don't agree with those range of hands. but if you assume you are right, then you have to call. he had ak, so you also had to be happy to call there.
but, i do think it can be laid down since it really puts you in a precarious position if you lose. the range of hands i'd put him would make the fold pretty plausible.

50/50s are fine when getting 2-1, you just can't be sure you are 50/50.
I also don't like ones that if i lose that I end up in bad shape.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
... i do think it can be laid down since it really puts you in a precarious position if you lose...

I also don't like ones that if i lose that I end up in bad shape.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is the specific issue I'd like to discuss more.

Care to elaborate?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're sure he would cold-call with AA-JJ? the only way you can have any confidence of that whatsoever is if you have seen him cold-call in similar situations a number of times in the past.

there's a difference between a read and a guess/hope.

[mcteecho]

"I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

In a ring game with the long term in our favor, the answer is clear cut and there is no debate as long as bank roll considerations are not an issue (which they shouldn't be). In a tourney, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe some small edges should be passed up IF (and only IF) a loss will do significant damage to your stack (insert your own level of significance - 25%, 40%, 50%...)"

I completely agree with this.

[MLG]

As far as the first hand goes, part of you're edge over the field is the fact that you have to make this call. Its a very small portion of your stack, you are clearly ahead of his range of hands, you got sucked-out on, oh well.

You want to debate the 2nd hand fine. The issue to debate is not whether your should call given your range of hands, rather its how you arrived at your range. Put it this way, if the hand he flipped over was 66 and at the bottom of your range, it never even occurs to you to make this post.

[BAK]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

In a ring game with the long term in our favor, the answer is clear cut and there is no debate as long as bank roll considerations are not an issue (which they shouldn't be). In a tourney, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe some small edges should be passed up IF (and only IF) a loss will do significant damage to your stack (insert your own level of significance - 25%, 40%, 50%...)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to formulate a post that asks this very question. Isn't there a fundimental difference in how you use the information about outs and pot odds, etc. when you are in a tournament, where the result is that when you lose you are out, vs a ring game where the result is you lose some money?

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]

You want to debate the 2nd hand fine. The issue to debate is not whether your should call given your range of hands, rather its how you arrived at your range. Put it this way, if the hand he flipped over was 66 and at the bottom of your range, it never even occurs to you to make this post.

[/ QUOTE ]


OK. Forget my read - that's not the issue. Let's pretend he flashes me the AK. The math says I should call. Period. I will win 55% of the time. Over the long run I should call for slightly less that even money - I have much better than that here.

Problem is we know this is not the long run. This is sudden death. And my question is does the advantage of having a twice average stack if I win outway the disadvantage of having a 1/2 average stack under the very real possiblity of me losing?

Assume I am a slightly above average player.

Please provide reasoning with your answer.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're sure he would cold-call with AA-JJ? the only way you can have any confidence of that whatsoever is if you have seen him cold-call in similar situations a number of times in the past.

there's a difference between a read and a guess/hope.

[/ QUOTE ]


Please, I said I really didn't want to debate the read. And I know that there are certainly no guarantees here. But I assure you I was confident enough in this read to risk my entire stack.

My question from the beginning has been given my stack size compared to the rest of the field, and given that I consider myself to be a slightly better that average player of the remaining field, should I be willing to gamble 1/2 my stack on slightly better than a flip?

Will the benefits of having twice average when I win outway the costs of being left with 1/2 average the 45 out of 100 times that I lose? Remember, I am slightly above average player in this field.

Thoughts?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Please, I said I really didn't want to debate the read

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
and though we can argue the merit of my read if you guys want

[/ QUOTE ]

[MLG]

Ok. so you start the hand with 6000 chips. When you are contemplating the call you have 5100 chips in your stack with 3900 in the middle. You need to call 2100 to win the 3900, just short of 2:1 and leave you with 8000 chips when you win. You know that you have 99, and he has AK.

If you fold here, you are saying that you can increase your stack from 5100 to 8000 with less risk than 50/50. Given that you have less than 20BBs, how will you increase your stack that much with less risk? Simply by raising and having everybody fold? Think about how often that would have to happen for you to win that many chips.

Its a serious question. Give me your plan for winning more chips with less risk.

[Paul2432]

What do you think it means when you say "I am a slightly above average player"?

Here is what I think it means: You can identify profitable situations and take advantage of them, while passing on unprofitable situations. By forgoing profitable situations you are giving up a lot of your advantage as an above average player.

BTW, this topic of whether or not to pass on small edges has been debated extensively on this forum and the single table tournament forum. Greg (Fossilman) has advocated strongly for not passing any edge. You can do a search for some of his posts.

Also try and find a post by eastbay on the single table tournament forum. He has done some computer simulations that show that passing the small edges is a poor strategy, except for perhaps the very smallest edges.

Paul

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think it means when you say "I am a slightly above average player"?

Here is what I think it means: You can identify profitable situations and take advantage of them, while passing on unprofitable situations. By forgoing profitable situations you are giving up a lot of your advantage as an above average player.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

[ThrillFactor]

not to further your point, but I'd have 9000 if i win.

I'm still thinking about the rest.

[MLG]

adding is quite obviously not my strong point /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[ThrillFactor]

Alright, perhaps I'm just letting my recent extended results influence some thought patterns here.

I've read the literature. I've been around this forum for 6 months. I seen some numbers thrown around. And the gist of it all is that in most situations, only an expert player can afford to throw away a 10% edge. I'm certainly not an expert player, so that means I probably need to get my chips in as fast as possible in nearly every mid-tourney 55/45 I stumble into. Of course that doesn't apply very early or around bubble time.

I do understand that nearly everyone who makes the final table in a large MTT has to win 4 or 5 of these close ones to be there. If you're lucky, you lose one only after winning 3. In that case you have enough chips in front of you to weather it. If you're me, then you either lose your first and that's it, or you win 1 or 2 but then lose 2 in a row and that's it again.

Why do these damn things have to be so much fun to play?


It IS just a matter of time before I win my 4 or 5 close ones and you guys are giving me some final table sweat.

Right?

[sdplayerb]

i am willing to give up some chip ev in the midpoint of a tournament to keep a workable stack.
when you get less than around 12-13x you are pretty committed to a hand when you raise, thus you can't really try to steal blinds until you get desparate.
while at like 17x+ or so, if people are playing tight, you can do some stealing and still have the ability to fold if you get caught by another decent size stack.

so i think chips won are worth less than chips lost.
due to this i probably want like 10-20% advantage on my money so i don't get into a more desparate situation where it becomes somewhat of a luck contest.

so from a theoretical perspective, yes my chip stack will be part of my decision process.
i'm not saying you should fold based solely upon this, but if it gets at all close, i will fold if a loss puts me under certain, what i will call, inflection points.

i also think you are too worried about your chips vs everybody else's. i think # of BB is far more important.

SD

[sdplayerb]

if i am getting 2-1 on a 50/50 the only way i'm not calling is when i'm 2nd in chips with 3 people left and the 3rd place guy is just about out.

you just can't give away that kind of edge.
nobody, nobody, is that good.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
THE SITUATION:

Down to top 20% of the field.
My stack is about 7500
Average is about 5000
Blinds 150/300
I have KQo in the BB, folded to SB (average, unexceptional player) who pushes for about 1400 - 1100 for me to call.
I've got to believe his range of hands here is huge. If I win, I pad my stack even more. If I lose, it doesn't hurt that much. It takes my about 5 seconds to call. He shows J7s, so the read was good, but he wins the hand.

Cards happen, but the question here is should I have been calling here in the first place? Nice healthy stack with a good, but not great, chance to improve it. Call or wait till I can be the aggressor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure you should call. Getting about 3-2 pot odds. The SB was desperate and can have a lot of hands you beat. If he happens to have a better hand than you, then you are likely not far behind.


[ QUOTE ]
AN ORBIT LATER:

I have 6000-6200 chips, average is about 5500 at this point.
Blinds still 150/300
I make it 900 to go from MP with pocket 9s. Player on my immediate left pushes for 3K - folded to me, 2100 to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 2-1 pot odds, this would generally be a call. Getting less than 2-1 is where it gets more tricky.


[ QUOTE ]
I've been sitting with this guy for 2 hours, and though we can argue the merit of my read if you guys want, I've got him squarely on TT-66, AK-AJ, or KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case it's an easy call. Even if getting less than 2-1.

[ QUOTE ]
3 months ago I would have laid this down without a second thought and taken my slightly below average stack and gone back to work (hell, 3 months ago I would have limped with the 99 to begin with).

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make a habit of laying down when getting 2-1 or better on an allin, headsup.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I realize that I'm getting greater that 2 to 1 on my call and I'm a small favorite to boot. So I grit my teeth, call even though I've been losing every time I put myself in these situations, see his AKo turned up (read was good), watch the K hit the flop, and am left with a 1/2 average stack.

[/ QUOTE ]


Shallow money poker is a crapshoot.


[ QUOTE ]
Cards happen, I know. But the question is, am I applying these concepts at the right times?

[/ QUOTE ]


You made good calls in both hands. That gives you an edge over a lot of your opponents that fold here.

[ QUOTE ]
At the two moments in question, given my good position relative the the rest of the field, am I risking too much with too small a chance of winning? Should I be waiting for the 60/40 hands with 1 - 1.5x the average stack? Should the 55/45s be saved for when I'm short-stacked or have >2x the average?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the price being offered. Price matters. Being 55/45 dog is not a close gamble when getting 2-1 on your money. Being a 60/40 dog is not a close gamble when getting over 2-1. Being a 60/40 dog getting 3-2 pot odds is a close gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
Am I picking the right spots to make the close gambles?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think either example was a close gamble.

[willie]

-- edit, sorry i didn't see how large this thread had gotten, i typically like to respond and then take a look around and see how others feel, i may elaborate in a bit.


your read was spot on both times

i feel that the first hand is a pretty easy call

the second hand..... it comes down to what you said earlier, you play these things to finish high, and to finish high sometimes you have to gamble.

[ThrillFactor]

.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just wondering if sometimes we don't get too caught up in who's the favorite and pot odds and EV and Sklanski dollars and the mathematically correct plays, to stop and consider what happens to our chances to do well if we lose a particular hands - which we will just slightly less than 1/2 the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a tournament, the math that matters is tournament ev. Away from the big money, tournament ev = pot odds. Closer to the big money, tournament ev = pot odds + other considerations. The impact this has is that near the big money, close gambles in terms of pot odds can become negative tournament ev and hence become a fold. Your second hand was not a close gamble and had positive tourney ev.

EDIT: I think Fossilman has referred to this in the past as
cash ev and chip ev. So in those terms, away from the big money, cash ev = chip ev. etc.