When it's a coin flip.

[Duke]

NLHE tourney - live so you can read what you're up against before making up your mind.

Say you have TT and raise it 1/6 of your stack. Then a very aggressive player pushes in and has you covered. I read him for a pair below tens, but I also gave him possible credit for AK. I figure I'm at LEAST a slight favorite, so after pondering, and figuring that I'll be in excellent chip shape and take a leg out of one of 2 players at my table that I worry about, I call all-in.

Assuming that my reads are always correct, should I be calling all-in on these sorts of plays against players who have me covered?

I don't mind busting out when I know I'm a slight dog but my short stacks warrant it, but if I have a decent sized stack, and see an opportunity to basically be able to coast into the money... I don't know if I should take these shots. Do I need to be a 4-1 favorite every time I push in?

~D

[Bozeman]

If the chance that he has a pair below 10 is higher than the chance he has a pair above 10 (for example, suppose he makes this move with AA-55 + AK+ AQ: you are a big underdog 28%, a big favorite 34%, tied 1%, and a slight favorite 37%), you should be making this call every time, unless the field is absolutely abyssmal. The fact that you are risking 5/6 of your stack to win 12/6 + blinds means if you aren't much of a dog to win, you are +EV on chips, and therefore +EV on money unless this is close to a significant rise in payout.

Craig

BTW, if he has AK or 99-66, you win about .55*.5 + .8*.5 =67.5%, making you a better than 2:1 favorite. This is better than AKs vs. QJo, for example. This kind of advantage doesn't even require reflection.

[ohkanada]

If you read him for a pair below TT or AK then it is an easy call. Of course he could have AA/KK/QQ/JJ as well. The key is to have some idea what type of pairs/big cards would the player push you all-in with. With TT I am wary of calling all-in against a big re-raise against most players since I am normally up against overcards or an overpair.

"Do I need to be a 4-1 favorite every time I push in?"

One wishes they could be a 4-1 favorite everytime. In real life a pair vs overcards is sometimes as good as it gets. In general I would rather be the 1st one raising all-in rather than calling all-in.

Ken Poklitar

[Duke]

But, I'm assuming that my reads are correct, thereby rulig out AA,KK,QQ,JJ. If I can't put a guy on one of those hands pre-flop when he has it, and I don't just muck out of caution because I don't know the player yet, I really have no business playing in these tournaments. Or at least I would have had nothing to post - something along the lines of: I suck at reading hands.

This player would have called with a pair of AA or KK, and then I'd be in "flop a set or muck to any bet" mode. QQ or JJ I would have picked up on and played accordingly (probably a muck).

If he had a pair above TT I would have read him for it.

If this happened in the future, and I was in ok chip shape (I had 12 BB's left even if I muck it to his move) I'd muck. I guess I was a little concerned about playing at a table with Super Mario and Jimmy Tran for a LONG time (hell of a place to end up in a relatively small (in terms of buyin amount) tourney after your table breaks, and this table would not break for a long time) and was antsy about getting a bigger stack in front of me so I wouldn't be as vulnerable to their aggressive play. And I would have crippled Mario, and had like 5x as much in chips as Jimmy, and been the big stack at my table by like 40 percent or so.

On second thought, maybe I -would- do the same thing again.

But maybe I wouldn't.

Thanks for the replies, and maybe I'll pull myself together enough to play in another event sometime.

~D

[Bozeman]

If you know he has either AK or an underpair, you have to call.

If you know he has AK, you can fold.

Craig