Value Bet My Trips on the River?

[spydog]

Villian is 36/5. He is passive postflop and likes to fold before he gets to showdown. If he goes to showdown, he has TPTK.

Easy check-call or easy value bet?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (19 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets or checks?

[QTip]

This is an interesting one. I would like to know what the PFR% of the villain is and if he's tight or loose. If he's loose, I'd value bet here. Since he didn't cap, I would think of something like AQ to put him on. I think if he had AA or QQ, he would have capped PF.

[QTip]

What did i just talk about with the capping PF nonsense...sorry I go this confused with another post...

I would still bet the river and call a raise.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if he had AA or QQ, he would have capped PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can't cap PF because nobody 3-bet him.

[Entity]

What about checkraise/call a 3-bet? Would he play AQs this aggressively?

Rob

[ErrantNight]

are you kidding? you're asking this?

you're afraid of EXACTLY AA enough times to consider slowing down? you shouldn't be.

and given his passive description, i can see you suddenly fearing a monster... but if you felt that strongly about it, why on earth did you cap the turn? which was just fine, i might add.

you could also cap the flop, that would have been aiiiight.

but you should definitely, and easily, bet this river. and not think twice about it.

[QTip]

sorry about that mistake, I was thinking of 2 posts at the same time...

This is a scary one....QQ and AA are a possibility here...hope you won.. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[QTip]

That was my question. Would he play AQ or KK this way?

[ErrantNight]

if he's really that passive i don't want to give him the chance to let this get checked through after my turn cap, do I?

admittedly AQ is his most likely holding that hero beats here, and villain seems to like his hand enough to bet it the rest of the way... I think perhaps the c/r call a 3-bet line might be best, as it would suck to get capped if hero bets/3-bets

[QTip]

I he comes back at you, do you cap?

[ErrantNight]

dude, if my bet gets raised, i can't cap it coming back.

i like entity's c/r, call 3-bet line for this reason...

I also DON'T like it, because if villain has KK (as likely as AA, in fact, MORE likely now that an A is out) he may let this get checked through.

i think they're both close, and i probably bet for value and call a raise and wish I'd had the stones to c/r and call a 3-bet.

if i'm beat, i'm beat. next hand.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
What about checkraise/call a 3-bet? Would he play AQs this aggressively?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

He is passive postflop and I believe he is only likely to 3-bet me on the turn with QQ-AA. Outside chance of AQ, but doubtful.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's really that passive i don't want to give him the chance to let this get checked through after my turn cap, do I?

admittedly AQ is his most likely holding that hero beats here, and villain seems to like his hand enough to bet it the rest of the way... I think perhaps the c/r call a 3-bet line might be best, as it would suck to get capped if hero bets/3-bets

[/ QUOTE ]

I think bet-calling is a viable option as well, since AA and KK were also possible, and they just got there. So we're up against 9 combos of AQ that will bet the river, 6 combos of AA/QQ that will go as many bets as possible, and 6 combos of KK that check behind.

Maybe bet-call is best here. I'm still doing the math, and it's too early.

Rob

[QTip]

That's what I'm saying, I would not cap either...because of that fact, I like betting out and calling a raise. MP2 certainly is not going to fold after all this action. I'd rather pay 2BB to see his hand instead of 3 if he's the winner. Likewise, if I have him beat, I'd rather get 1 bet in and not see this checked through if he has something like KK and is now scare of the river.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What about checkraise/call a 3-bet? Would he play AQs this aggressively?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

He is passive postflop and I believe he is only likely to 3-bet me on the turn with QQ-AA. Outside chance of AQ, but doubtful.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'd 3-bet you on the turn with KK, no?

I bet-call given the reads you've provided. We'll say he has AQ 3 ways, KK 6 ways, and AA/QQ 6 ways. That's 1 bet 6 times you're ahead, 2 bets 6 times you're behind, and 2 bets 3 times you're ahead. Neutral EV overall, but better than the negative EV of check-calling since I think he doesn't bet KK very often on this river.

Rob

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's really that passive i don't want to give him the chance to let this get checked through after my turn cap, do I?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious as to what range of hands you think Villian might have. Remember his PFR is 5% and he plays passively postflop. What hands does he 3-bet me on the turn? And, how would he play the river with these hands if I check? What about if I lead the river against those same hands?

[ErrantNight]

I think if you include AA you've got to include KK in this scenario... and possibly a wildly overplayed AQs... that a singleton A falls on the river decreases the likelihood of AA enough to offset the possibility that i'm now f'ed in the a. i think KK lets it get checked through, an overplayed AQ plays it just like AA at this point and I have no way of telling.

if i was afraid of QQ, why was i capping the turn?

therefore, although I kinda like Entity's c/r the line, the more we discuss this, the more I'm inclined to bet out and call a raise.

[Entity]

As long as he never bets KK on the river, and he plays AQ this aggressively ~33% of the time, and he plays KK this aggressively on the turn, then I think a bet-call is best.

Bet-calling earns you 0BB. Whoop.

Check-calling loses you 3BB (bets AQ 3 ways, bets AA/QQ 6 ways, never bets KK).

Check-raising and calling a 3-bet earns 9BB from AQ, 0BB from KK, and loses 18BB to AA/QQ. It's definitely not the right line for this situation and this opponent.

The numbers can be skewed based on how your opponent will play KK and QQ, obviously.

Rob

[Fat Nicky]

I think to say villain has AQ is undervaluing his hand. He's a passive player that likes to go to showdown, after her 3-bets the turn, I eliminated that from his possbile holdings.

That said, I'd still bet the river because most passive players will check w/KK but still payoff a bet. I'm also calling a raise of course.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

without doing any of the math, i'm bet/callign this river, simply because if this river has to go 3 bets you're likely losing agaisnt a passive player, plain and simple.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think to say villain has AQ is undervaluing his hand. He's a passive player that likes to go to showdown, after her 3-bets the turn, I eliminated that from his possbile holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's 98% safe to eliminate AQ when he 3-bet the turn. I did.

Therefore, I felt I had a 50/50 chance of being ahead on the river. I gain 1 bet by betting and getting called by KK. I lose 2 bets by betting and getting raised by QQ or AA. If I check I lose 1 bet to QQ or AA and nothing to KK. If he has AQ, he will bet the river if I check, but he may not raise the river if I lead. So, I think that is a wash.

This is probably as close to a 0 EV situation that you can get.

I don't have large testicles, but if I did I would bet-fold this river. While seemingly risky, I think it yields the most EV longterm.

[ErrantNight]

that read would hafta be hella right to consider folding there...

[crunchy1]

Villian is fairly loose and somewhat aggressive PF - how has the possiblity of villian holding 88 not entered the discussion??

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is fairly loose and somewhat aggressive PF - how has the possiblity of villian holding 88 not entered the discussion??

[/ QUOTE ]

5% PFR is not aggressive preflop.

Rob

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villian is fairly loose and somewhat aggressive PF - how has the possiblity of villian holding 88 not entered the discussion??

[/ QUOTE ]

5% PFR is not aggressive preflop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct - which is why I said somewhat aggressive. It's tough to say - without knowing how many hands Hero has on villian. I just wouldn't discount what seems to be an average player raising two limpers with a middle pocket pair.

My point is: what is he giving you this much action on the turn with? My experience is that passive post-flop players won't be as aggressive on the turn as villian was here - yet the majority of the discussion is revolving around his big pocket pair. If it's any big pocket pair it's probably QQ.

As far as the value bet on the river - IMO, the way the hand was played - this is a check/call situation. I think your decision would've been easier had you capped the flop and lead the turn. It just seems to me that a passive post-flop player giving this much post-flop action has a pretty big hand.