Dumping the OESD

[private joker]

Another hand I just remembered from the Hustler 4/8 session. I've got 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif in the (big) blind. 2 limpers, aggressive button raises (he raises light, and especially light on the button). I call, limpers call. 4 to the flop for 8 small bets. (Getting 7:1 this was marginal but I figured I could see a flop).

Flop is T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to the button, who bets. I call, EP calls, MP folds. 3 to the turn for 5.5 big bets.

Turn is 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Now the unimaginative EP (a passive straight-forward old man) comes alive and bets out the turn. Button calls. I fold...

[Brainwalter]

Looks like a no-brainer. Obviously the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif aren't outs, and there's a very good chance you don't have any.

Even if your 6 other straight outs are good (and I would estimate this chance way less than 50% given EP's player description), you're getting about breakeven pot odds to hit it.

Pretty clear fold imo.

Other streets are ok.

Edit: Looking again, I'd like the flop call more if there was a club. you're getting 9:1 immediately. 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif might not be an out and if it is, it leaves you vulnerable to redraws. It's close, but I think you should probably fold the flop.

[jason_t]

I don't get the flop call. You have a gutshot, but the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif may not be good. Please explain.

[Brainwalter]

If the others fold though, 6's and 8's start to look like very possible outs against overaggressive button.

[sthief09]

that's fine. you only have 4 outs anyway and you could be drawing dead. and your preflop call isn't marginal

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
that's fine. you only have 4 outs anyway and you could be drawing dead. and your preflop call isn't marginal

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 4? I count 3 non-spade 4s, and 3 non-spade 9s. That's at least six. (If, as you say, I'm not drawing dead already).

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
aggressive button raises (he raises light, and especially light on the button).

[/ QUOTE ]

me? or that dude from goodfellas?

btw, i now change my verdict of marginal to good fold, after you point out who it was that made the turn bet. there is no way that old dude was bluffing into a field.

[bernie]

Given your position to the bettor, I'd fold this flop.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
If the others fold though, 6's and 8's start to look like very possible outs against overaggressive button.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, why not then raise instead of call?

b

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Another hand I just remembered from the Hustler 4/8 session. I've got 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif in the (big) blind. 2 limpers, aggressive button raises (he raises light, and especially light on the button). I call, limpers call. 4 to the flop for 8 small bets. (Getting 7:1 this was marginal but I figured I could see a flop).

Flop is T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to the button, who bets. I call, EP calls, MP folds. 3 to the turn for 5.5 big bets.

Turn is 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Now the unimaginative EP (a passive straight-forward old man) comes alive and bets out the turn. Button calls. I fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you fold the flop, as the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is as dirty as (insert whimsical remark here.)

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your position to the bettor, I'd fold this flop.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

because of the c/r potential by the other players, or on the general principle of not drawing to a gutshot when the board is 2-flushed?

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
aggressive button raises (he raises light, and especially light on the button).

[/ QUOTE ]

me? or that dude from goodfellas?

btw, i now change my verdict of marginal to good fold, after you point out who it was that made the turn bet. there is no way that old dude was bluffing into a field.

[/ QUOTE ]

The eyebrows guy. You weren't in this hand. Remember how Goodfellas was always either cold-calling raises or raising himself? I think he had a superstition that every street had to have two bets in it either way.

And yeah, for those who weren't there that old guy was playing pretty straight forward, and was not going to check raise at all. He sucked out on Gaming Mouse's Queens earlier with runner runner straight and had a super-easy opportunity to checkraise the river but came alive and bet out. GM looked at the board, sighed, and made his crying call.

[private joker]

Also, I'm not convinced that on the flop the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif was that dirty of an out. No one had shown any interest in the hand at all -- checking to the preflop raiser on an ugly flop. I was getting immediate odds for a gutshot (if both limpers called) and the chances were the PFR was on some sort of a made hand or overcards, not a spade draw.

If anything, the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif on the turn would have just made me have to play defense with my straight, hoping no one hit a 4th spade on the river.

[xxxxx]

In addition to the flush problems with the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, the other 9s aren't 100% clean either. A) You are not drawing to the nuts straight. You will be beaten by J8. B) An eight or 6 could come, forcing you to split. Or a Q or J could give someone a higher straight. C) The board could pair giving someone a fullhouse.

These aren't very likely events, but you aren't being paid to take the risk.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
C) The board could pair giving someone a fullhouse.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not convinced somebody has already hit a set or two pair. You're really looking for monsters under the bed here -- do you always fold gutshots if it's not to the stone cold nuts? Straights can ALWAYS be counterfeited by running flushes or the board pairing. Do you never draw to them?

[xxxxx]

If I'm a 10:1 dog to fill a gutshot straight and the pot is offerring 10:1, yeah I always fold them. There is always the risk of a runner runner flush etc. If the pot is offering 14:1, I'll play them. Yeah, I'm pointing out all the monsters under the bed. Because there are monsters and you are not being paid to fight them.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
because of the c/r potential by the other players,

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one reason. Another is I'd like to have the aggressor on my left, so that when I hit my draw, I can then c/r and collect 2 double bets so I can easier hit my implied odds+ overlay (for redraws) for my hand. It's tough to collect that when you're in this position. Unless you bet out, many call, then the button raises if he raises. The bet will look strange with a seemingly blank hitting the board.


[ QUOTE ]
or on the general principle of not drawing to a gutshot when the board is 2-flushed?

[/ QUOTE ]

The principle depends on pot size, # of opponents and position to the likely turn bettor. Also be careful if opponents are tight turn players. Ones who will likely call the flop, but fold to the turn bet alot.

3 outs you need about 14-1 + implieds for the overlay. You can get that if the guy is on your left. The flop will get you about 11-1 if you close the action. If you hit, you can collect 4-6 extra bets on the turn (checking to the bettor who bets and gets at least 1 caller. Each bet on the turn counts as 2), then c/r to get 4-6 more. You can make some razor thin calls in this spot.

b

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

3 outs you need about 14-1 + implieds for the overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

bernie,

thanks for the excellent discussion. how are getting 3 outs tho?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Straights can ALWAYS be counterfeited by running flushes or the board pairing. Do you never draw to them?

[/ QUOTE ]

When a flush draw is possible on the flop, it should be considered as a likely possibility when factoring outs and overlays to redraws. You can't give the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif full 'out' status. I tend to round down, which is a bit tighter look at it.

I do agree that you don't have to be drawing to the nuts. Especially when your cards are midrange. The higher your cards, the more you will want to be drawing to the nuts.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm a 10:1 dog to fill a gutshot straight and the pot is offerring 10:1, yeah I always fold them

[/ QUOTE ]

You're also not taking into account your implied odds should you hit your hand. You could be getting 18/20-1 on your call factoring that in. Would you still fold?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
how are getting 3 outs tho?

[/ QUOTE ]

3 nines. I discount the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif to make my call tighter given the situation with the redraw. Not saying the spade will for sure make a flush, but just in case. To me, rather than making it a partial out, discounting it can make up for the redraw to the flush, higher str8 or if someone already has a 9. For me, knowing I can cover 3 outs, I can make a much more confident play than playing a guessing game over 1/2 or 1 out.

b

[xxxxx]

[ QUOTE ]
You're also not taking into account your implied odds should you hit your hand. You could be getting 18/20-1 on your call factoring that in. Would you still fold?


[/ QUOTE ]

You want to be sure you really have implied odds before you call on that basis. Say that five people see the turn. Two of them have bottom pair and are going to fold the river unimproved. One guy is on a flush draw and another has a higher gutshot draw and you are giving them implied odds when they hit. The last guy has TPTK and he's the only bet you'll collect on the river when you hit.

I understand the concept of implied odds. But let's make sure it isn't an excuse for loose calls.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to be sure you really have implied odds before you call on that basis.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really not that tough to figure your likely (range of) implied odds if you know your opponents a little bit.

[ QUOTE ]
Say that five people see the turn. Two of them have bottom pair and are going to fold the river unimproved. One guy is on a flush draw and another has a higher gutshot draw and you are giving them implied odds when they hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually in these cases, you're not seeing the river if you don't improve on the turn. (you remember the type of hand we're talking about?) When you do improve, you check, into the bettor, who then bets. Everyone who calls is giving you your implied odds and 'effectively' going to get shelled on their effective odds to redraw when you raise, while you collect addtional implied odds on their calls of your raise. This more than makes up for the 1 bet they may collect from you on the river if they redraw on you.

[ QUOTE ]
The last guy has TPTK and he's the only bet you'll collect on the river when you hit

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, we're talking about the turn. He's not the only bet you'll collect when you hit your hand.

[ QUOTE ]
But let's make sure it isn't an excuse for loose calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's make sure it also isn't an excuse for overtight folds.

b

[sthief09]

I'm a mess right now

[xxxxx]

Bernie, we both value this hand as worth 3 outs and requiring 14:1 to draw. We aren't far apart.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
we both value this hand as worth 3 outs and requiring 14:1 to draw. We aren't far apart.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note also in my original response that I'd have folded on the flop.

b