Step 5 (Hand 2)

[hansarnic]

#Game No : 1621649950
***** Hand History for Game 1621649950 *****
NL Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:9740294 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, February 20, 18:16:36 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 #983423 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 7: Hansarnic ( $680 )
Seat 9: DIKREALBIG ( $1040 )
Seat 10: holehog ( $6880 )
Seat 8: pairofdeuces ( $980 )
Seat 3: Gamboholic_ ( $420 )
Trny:9740294 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
There is no Small Blind in this hand as the Big Blind of the previous hand left the table.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hansarnic [ 7d 7c ]
pairofdeuces is all-In [980]
DIKREALBIG folds.
holehog folds.
Gamboholic_ is all-In [420]
Hansarnic.....?

[curtains]

I would call. Decent chances that you are dominated, as the Button can wait to see if you bust this hand, yet they ahve decided to put their last 410 in. However as long as you dont come in last place this hand, you will get at least 4th place. Your help may be needed to bust the allin player.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

I would call. Decent chances that you are dominated, as the Button can wait to see if you bust this hand, yet they ahve decided to put their last 410 in. However as long as you dont come in last place this hand, you will get at least 4th place. Your help may be needed to bust the allin player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite true. If short-stack wins & I come second then we're still 5-handed (though pairofdeuces is all-in on his BB next hand).

[kamrann]

Damn this is a nasty spot. First off, if that was the result, being PartyPoker, it looks like pairofdeuces is going to get to skip his BB because the button will (stupidly) jump to you. You'll have 520 and so could force him all-in before you on the following round, assuming the blinds don't go up, but it's still not a very nice spot to be in, and you'd be completely giving up any chance of better than 4th.

Anyway, back to the actual hand. My first impression was, gambo has a very big hand. But not so sure. He has no fold equity left, knows he's the first to be forced all-in, and so could conceivably be taking this opportunity to simply get his chips in against only one opponent - two have folded and he can't figure that you are likely to want to call. If you think there's a chance this may be his thinking, call.

But, if we assume he has found a big hand, it's not very likely your 77 is going to help busting him. The only cases in which it will help are: he has a smaller pair, UTG has overs and misses; or they both have overs and miss, short stack has the better overs and wins; or you hit a set - highly unlikely. Basically, it's not really a great hand to help bust someone if we assume there are two decent hands out, which looks likely. Better off with two relative high cards.

It's tough. I think I'd lean to calling, mostly due to the extra value of having a chance at 1st if you win, and still having a chance of getting into the money if you don't.

[TheAmp]

Very interesting position.

I must admit my first impression was fold, but after analyzing the different scenarios, I am convinced it is an easy call.

If you fold, you are left with 380 chips. Gamboholic called all his chips in the bubble (4 prize structure), therefore Gamboholic should be favorite against pairofdeuces here. If Gamboholic wins this hand you are a big favorite to finish out of the money. Even if Gamboholic loses this hand, you can't hope for much more than fourth place.

Now, lets see what happens if you call. The big swing is when you win the hand. In this case, not only are you in the money, but with 1780 chips you have a reasonable shot for the bigger prizes. Even if you don't win, curtains made the point that as long you don't finish with the third best hand, you are still better off than folding.

Now, lets look at a few typical scenarios if you call:

Scenario 1 : Two overcards.

This can occur if both Gamboholic and pairofdeuces have AK, or if pairofdeuces pushed with Ax (x<8) and Gamboholic has AQ or AK.

In this case folding is a disaster.

Scenario 2 : Three overcards.

For example pairofdeuces has AQ or AJ and Gamboholic has AK.
Lets look at the results:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 7d 614944 44.86 752331 54.88 3479 0.25 0.449
Ad Kh 451094 32.91 892844 65.14 26816 1.96 0.338
Qs Ac 277900 20.27 1066038 77.77 26816 1.96 0.212

In this case you are risking very little for a HUGE gain.

Scenario 3 : overpair.

in this case it doesn't make a big difference if both Gamboholic and pairofdeuces have overpairs, or if one has an overpair and the other has AK or AQ. Your winning chances are around 19%.

You are not happy here, but still you have a shot (huge gain), and you might show the second best hand as noted above.

Four overcards is not a reasonable scenario.

The average of these typical scenarios gives a clear answer:
Call.

S.J. Beja

[ZeeJustin]

This is an easy call. Since you are the BB, your pot odds are insane. The top 4 money, so you only bubble if Gamboholic finishes 1/3, pairofdeuces finishes 2/3 AND you finish 3/3. That won't happen very often at all.