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View Full Version : AJs, I'm pretty sure I'm beat...


thesharpie
02-21-2005, 11:39 PM
Hero is UTG with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 handed Pacific .25/.50

Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Blinds call.

Flop is J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 handed) 11 small bets

SB bets, BB calls, hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 reraises, everyone else calls.

I would usually cap it here but I read something about when there are flush and straight draws out there they benifit from the raises on the flop, although I'm sure I would to. Is it worth capping it in spots like this when you know there's flush/straight draws value raising?

Turn is 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 handed) 13 big bets

SB bets, BB calls, Hero /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I'm almost positive someone hit a straight or flush, so I'm drawing dead.

jar
02-22-2005, 04:07 AM
Yes, you should cap the flop. You make money on raises any time you have a "pot equity edge". In other words, if the percentage of the time you win the hand is greater than the percentage of the bets you put in, you're making money.

I'm not folding TPTK getting 13:1, and it'd be >13:1 if you had capped the flop. I call here. If it comes back to me 3bet, then I probably fold.

rmarotti
02-22-2005, 04:10 AM
I think the flop call is fine. I'm raising this turn though.

morberg
02-22-2005, 08:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop call is fine. I'm raising this turn though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, against four opponents? Could you explain why?

RaiNz
02-22-2005, 08:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop call is fine. I'm raising this turn though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you raise this turn? You cannot be confident that you are ahead here. TPTK is not that strong vs 4 opponents on this kind of board. You may already be drawing dead to a straight or flush. I call here and fold to a raise.

Turducken
02-22-2005, 01:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you should cap the flop. You make money on raises any time you have a "pot equity edge". In other words, if the percentage of the time you win the hand is greater than the percentage of the bets you put in, you're making money.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the time it's 3-bet to you, there are four opponents left. So your cap will get called by four more bets, meaning your pot equity must be at least 20% to make capping profitable for value.

Given this flop and the action so far, how much pot equity do you really expect to have? I'm not sure it's much more than 20%. Even if you have the best hand so far, the turn and river would have to miss all four of your opponents.