Set bet on scary board

[thesharpie]

Sorry if it's a little hard to understand, this is my first post and I can't find a hand convertor for Pacific poker so bear with me...

Hero has Q /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button at .25/.50 Pacific.

3 limpers, hero raises, and the 3rd limper somewhere in MP reraises. He'd been playing pretty quality hands so I was worried about aces or kings. Hero capped anyway. Everyone called.

Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 handed)

2 limpers check, the PF check raiser bets, Hero raise, the 2 limpers fold and he calls.

Turn is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 handed)

He checks, hero bet, he calls.

River is 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 handed)

He checks, hero.. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jar]

This is very read dependent for me. I value bet a set on the river on a 4-flush board last time I played the Borgata 6/12; against any other player at the table I wouldn't but this guy was the action. He called with 2 pair.

If you think he'll call without a diamond, bet. If you think he wouldn't, then check behind. Sometimes he'll have it, sometimes he won't.

[morberg]

With no read I would check.

[thesharpie]

I put him on aces, kings, or AK the way he check raised preflop. Some people will do this with crap at this level just to piss you off, but he had been playing pretty good starting hands. By the time it got to the turn I ruled out pocket aces, and unless he's as scared as a mouse he's going to check raise AK. I concluded pocket kings was the most likely, and he was 50/50 to have the nut flush. I ended up getting check raised to the nut flush, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

50% of the time I'm going to make a bet (assuming he even calls with pocket kings), and 50% of the time I'm losing 2 bets, Assuming my read is correct. Bad bet by me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif