AA turn fold [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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milesdyson

02-21-2005, 10:48 PM

Villain is 38/0 after only 37 hands.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

Yeah, he's relatively unknown, but he has a T (or better), right?

AngelicPenguin

02-21-2005, 11:01 PM

I know I'd call down, but that's probably a bad play. J9s I wonder?

memphis57

02-21-2005, 11:25 PM

I dunno. Kind of like the penguin, I'm inclined to believe you because of all your great posts on here, but I can't see myself folding it in similar circumstances. What else besides that stat did you pick up in watching him for 37 hands? Does he never bluff or misjudge his power?

In this case the implied odds are hard to predict with 2 of them still apparently willing to duke it out when you folded. But worst case, it would have cost you 7 bets in a pot of 30ish, or more likely 3 bets in a pot of 15ish. Adding in the chance you could lose anyway even if he didn't have trip 10s, and that you could win anyway even if he did, it looks like you'd have to be around 75% sure he's got you beat. I'd have a hard time being that sure just on one 37-hand stat and his betting here.

skoal2k4

02-21-2005, 11:30 PM

I don't think I could make that fold... I think I call it down /images/graemlins/confused.gif

milesdyson

02-21-2005, 11:42 PM

There wasn't anything else I based this on, aside from maybe his pausing a while before he checked the flop and turn (which I try not to put much thought into).

I personally hate calling down when I feel it's a -EV proposition. Most players realize that other players will call down just about anything. I felt there was no way this guy was check raise bluffing here. It wasn't heads up, there was already a bet and call, and I didn't feel like giving away two more BB.

Stuey

02-21-2005, 11:42 PM

I would call the raise and check/call the river. He could be betting hands like A7 A8 87 JJ QQ. Looks like this guy plays his hand and would not try to think of what you have AA will surprise him often. If he has J9 or a T you are paying him off. But you have 2 outs 22 to 1 odds so the implied odds are good enough to call the raise right? If you want to fold after seeing the river that makes more sence to me. But I call a river bet, I have called before with much weaker hands. /images/graemlins/blush.gif This is my opinion only good chance I am way off.

milesdyson

02-21-2005, 11:49 PM

Assuming I need one of the two remaining Aces to win the hand, I don't have the implied odds to make this call. At most I can make up 8 BB on the river. At the point I would make the call I could safely assume 11.75:1 immediate pot odds. Even if I made the maximum 8 BB (which requires a capped river with both opponents in, ie. it won't happen), the implied odds would be 19.75:1.

skoal2k4

02-21-2005, 11:51 PM

I'm only going off what I read.... YOU'RE the one playing so you have the feel... if it feels -EV for you at that given time, then fold is the right move. But for me... based on what I see in the post... I gotta call down

KaiShin

02-21-2005, 11:54 PM

I think I have to call this down as well.

milesdyson

02-22-2005, 12:15 AM

Here's the full hand...

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, UTG+1 folds.

/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

MP2 kindly shows TT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

KaiShin

02-22-2005, 12:17 AM

Nice fold then /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Shillx

02-22-2005, 12:20 AM

Ni han. The line MP2 took here means "your [censored]" eventhough (should he have a ten) he played this one like a donkey (was it deathdonkey? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif).

Brad

milesdyson

02-22-2005, 12:21 AM

Yeah it's results oriented... but I think more respect has to be given to passive players check raising the field.

Hojglad

02-22-2005, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But you have 2 outs 22 to 1 odds so the implied odds are good enough to call the raise right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not even close. His odds are 1:22 if the raiser has a T. There are nowhere near 22 big bets in the pot.

Stuey

02-22-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No, not even close. His odds are 1:22 if the raiser has a T. There are nowhere near 22 big bets in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure how I messed up figuring this out. Imagine how far off I would be at the table with time ticking! Going to be a longtime before I can fold that hand though. Someday I will do it if I learn everything to look for. Nice post.