Pocket 9s Early in B&M Tourney, Crtique/Help

[MeanGreenTT]

$45 buy-in for 1000 chips. 20 minute rounds starting at 10/15 with 100 people. I recognize 3 people at my table (including Ray who won last night), all solid players.

3 hands into it I'm first to act and I look down at pocket 9s. It's early and I'm out of position but I decide to limp in for 15. 3 other limpers with the SB completing then to the BB who I know, Steve. He raises without hesitation to 135.

Now I know Steve's play pretty well and put him on a pocket pair, most likely a big one 'cause he hates losing with them, he always overbets 'em early instead of extracting maximum value. So for 10% of my stack I could call but I'm an underdog most likely. As much as I hate to toss 'em, I do but luckily there's one caller so we see the Flop. And to my disgust a 9 pops out, had I stayed in, I woulda had the sneaky set.

As it turns out, Steve bet out 600 and his opponent folds. Steve shows AA and I was dead on....can't justify a call hindsight, I still feel it's the right laydown under those cicumstances.

But then again....all I need to do is extract more from him than I'd lose the times I don't make the set....not sure on the exact math, I'm sure someone will set me straight.

I'm almost sure to get most of his chips here, most likely I bust him and double up. So I guess I really should've called as it was only about 10% of my stack.

What's your move? Was my fold correct? Thanks!

[schwza]

you played the hand as i would have.

[runnerunner]

You played it right, you should not call off 10% of your stack with 99 this early in a tournament. 10% of your stack is much too high to call off for set value, especially heads up.

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
You played it right, you should not call off 10% of your stack with 99 this early in a tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know of at least one pro who writes for cardplayer that would disagree with you.

I personally will call up to %10 of my stack with any PP early. You play them for set value though.

[sloth469]

If you put him on an over pair as you say you did, you are getting just about the correct odds to call here for set value. I like a cold call and "no set, no bet" on the flop.

It costs you 10% of your stack now, you flop the set 1 in 8 or 1 in 9 times (I see both figures given regularly)? So when you flop it you take his stack the majority of the time. Everyone as of late has been in favor of pushing small edges early. This definately falls into that category if you ask me.

If I'm wrong please explain why you think so.

-sloth

[ryachris]

I think the fold is by far the best move here if you are confident in your read. there is no reason that if you hit a set you will be paid off. he could hit his, or there could be an overcard to his pair and your set that makes his call harder. you are getting less than 3-1 on your money with a 1-8.5 set chance, and no garentee that is pays if you make.

Trust your read, and thta you will get better hands before you need to gamble this much. Fold

[Elaboration]

Hi MeanGreen,

You can make a case for calling here.

Given your read I think it's safe to assume your buddy plays for his entire stack here, correct? It costs you 125 to see the flop which gives you about 8-1 in relation to his stack. Combine that with the money already in the pot and your estimation of the liklihood that someone else will call as well and the implied odds can easily be justified.

If you think someone else will call, you are risking t125 for a shot at t1200 [135(BB bet)+865(his remaining stack)+75(limps)+125(potential caller)] = 9.6-1

It is total t1075 if everybody folds which = 8.6-1.

Either way you can go for it if you think villian goes bust here, which it seems that he does.

Anybody else agree with this?

Thanks-
E

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm wrong please explain why you think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

first, you're calling off a little over 12% of your stack, not 10. also, one of the limpers could be limp-reraising. you'll flop a set about 1/8.5. but 1/20 of those will be a single-suit flop. assuming you go to the felt against an overpair (and you had better be sure that's going to happen if you call and flop a set), villain will wind up with a higher set about 1/5. if villain has QQ/KK and the flop comes 9Ax, you won't get paid off. i'm sure there are other reasons as well...

[ryachris]

I disagree still,

There is no reason to assume the set is good, probably is, but it possible to hit both, run to a stright or flushamungst other things, and I think the assumption that the friend plays all in is also faulty. What if it comes KK9 2 suited and hero raises to big, or the friend also has a read on Hero?

Ryan

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no reason that if you hit a set you will be paid off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Judging by his description of the opponent it would seem he has a distinct probability of getting paid off.

Regards,
E

[ryachris]

his friend still has outs, and could have a read on Hero, likely yes, but not sure give it 80% reduces those implied odds you were quoting

[Elaboration]

Yes, change some variables and it could definately skew the implied odds. To me, based off the info the original poster gave, I just dont think a call would be criminal. Folding is good too.

Regards,
E

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm sure there are other reasons as well...


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you summed it up pretty well. /images/graemlins/wink.gif The A killing your action seems most probable.

Regards,
E

[MeanGreenTT]

Thanks for the replies y'all, I really appreciate it!!!

And just to note, I made the final table last night, finishing 6th for $170 (a play I'll ask about later) and also made the final table Saturday nite, placing 4th for $280 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I read a lot more than I post but without all the advice here, there's no way I'd play like I am right now, thanks!

[Sedona Homie]

Call it. I personally use 10-15% of stack as the amount of risk willing to take when the implied +EV is your opp. entire stack. You hit the flop with your set, he leads into you, you raise or push If he has AA you will get called AK and he missed he will cut it loose . When you flop a set you can't play like their is a monster behind every door. If you hit your set and he did also your stack disappears it was bad luck thats all. Doyle Brunson says "if you turn a Set in a raised pot it's practically impossible to get away from it. I defy anybody, ANYBODY, to turn a set a get away from it if the pot was raised originally"

[JohnG]

I'd generally want better position relative to the raiser before calling 10% of my stack with 99 here. Though I would probably call if I knew the players behind me were loose and passive. But with typical/unknown players behind me, I'd need JJ before I think I'd call for that price in this actual position.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Call it. I personally use 10-15% of stack as the amount of risk willing to take when the implied +EV is your opp. entire stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than 10% is too much, given all possibilities.