32+3 tricky satellite bubble hand

[adanthar]

The more I think about this hand the less sure I am of what the right line was on any street, so I'm posting it.

32+3 MTT on Full Tilt, but with only 32 people it's more of an SNG forum thing. Top 3 get an entry into their 200K guaranteed, 4-6 get booby prizes. BTW, Full Tilt's SNG and MTT structure is weird: you start with 1500 chips and 15/30 blinds, but the blinds raise incredibly slowly and it takes 2 hours for them to hit 150/300. There is a *lot* of play in these.

Anyway, there are 7 left and the stacks look approximately like this with 100/200 blinds (FT has no hand histories so I'm going from memory):

14K UTG
8K loosish UTG+1
2K MP1
13K CO
1K
7K (me) SB
6K decent BB

UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, I complete my pocket sevens and the BB checks.

The flop comes a very nice 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I check and the BB checks; UTG+1 bets out 500 into the 800 pot. MP1 folds, I decide to see how much she likes her hand and CR to 1400 (in retrospect, I don't like this much), BB folds and UTG+1 calls relatively quickly.

The turn is a 3, giving me the nuts because she doesn't have quads and if she does I'll river them. I bet out 1400 into the pot of 3600. She turbocalls. At this point I'm 80% sure she has the flush draw.

The river is the beautiful T /images/graemlins/heart.gif. If I want to try to fold my way in I need her whole stack. What's my line?

[Bigwig]

Hmm. I'll often check these hands with deeper stacks because a lot of bluffs will come from people trying to take advantage of position, and I think you can get more chips this way. But, the pot is large now that I might lead out a bet of 12-1500, trying to show some weakness, but almost for sure getting some more action.

[Hagrid]

I would bet about a third of the pot, that way they are raising you all in instead of you checking, them betting about as much as they think you will call and you reraising them all in.

Outcome is proably the same either way (you get all their chips) but betting a little here seems to give people more confidence. The flush is not the nuts and they might not have the nut flush so doing it this way seems to gives them less to worry about.

By the way, you played the hand perfect IMO on all previous streets.

[Seadood228]

With stacks that big in relation to the blinds, there are several right ways to play this hand on every street.

Preflop

You could raise here if the table is playing tight, but I prefer checking because a) the structure is slow and b) you have a hand that you don't mind taking a flop with. I'd rather raise with rags in this spot than 77.

Flop - IMO a small lead would have been better here, but there's nothing wrong with checkraising. If you lead small, MANY hands will have odds to call, hands that are practically drawing dead. A flush draw will most likely raise, allowing you to put in a monster reraise.

If you checkraise, I think you need to destroy your opponents odds of drawing to a flush. The C/r was a little small IMO.

Turn -

I LOVE the turn bet. Many players want to give the free card and allow their opponent to catch up. What they fail to realize is that a draw or even top pair will call a small bet getting those odds. Well done.

River -

This street depends so much on your read, and since you've read your opponent for a flush draw, it makes your decision a little easier. I think a lot of it depends on how you've read your opponents play until now. If you assume your opponent is on a flush draw, I think it's safe to assume they probably have overcards as well. If they did have a FD+OC on the flop, then it wasn't played that aggressively, leading me to believe that you won't get too much by checking in this spot. A flush will probably bet cautiously, and may even check. If you checkraise, I really think a lot of good players will fold a flush there.

I think your best best is to lay out a small defensive sized bet and hope they have put you on a weaker hand. If your opponent has made their flush, they will at least call, and possibly raise if they sense weakness. I think doing this will more than likely net you no less than checking the river.

[Sidekick]

I actually like your line all the way through the turn.

By the river there are only 2 hands that have you beat and if UTG+1 has pocket 33 or TT you are going to lose your whole stack anyways so your line doesn't really matter.

On the river I would bet out about 1600 (1/4 of the pot if I have things figured right). With this bet if UTG+1 isn't on the flush draw but has a strong hand they probably at least call your bet. If UTG+1 is on the flush draw and made the flush then this bet should look weak enough to encourage them to come over the top for the remainder of his/her chips. If UTG+1 has had the straight from the flop then the 1600 bet looks weak enough to encourage them to call when if you check after having check/raised and led out the betting the prior two rounds might have them only check behind you.

I don't like checking here because it's possible that villain isn't on the flush draw and it's a scare card to them and they might just check down behind you if you check. If they have a smaller flush draw or even the made straight villain might fold rather than call if you go all-in with the flush landing on the river.

Overall I like the 1/4 sized pot bet because it looks weak enough to encourage a call if villain has a weaker hand and looks weak enough to get villain to come over the top if villain hit the flush, has the straight or even a weaker full house.

I will be interested in seeing any other opinions. Hope this helps some.

[Allinlife]

You must lead on this flop. You get action from overpairs, 2 pair even semibluff nut flush draws. Check raising will often scare away your opponents and if it gets checked around, you're screwed.

[adanthar]

Part I:

A raise might've been arguable PF on the button, but out of position I'd rather just call. Plus, to fold in I need to stack somebody/hit a set. Winning 1K won't help me (much).

[ QUOTE ]
You must lead on this flop. You get action from overpairs, 2 pair even semibluff nut flush draws. Check raising will often scare away your opponents and if it gets checked around, you're screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it gets checked around, I have top set on a 753 board that probably missed everyone. Unless the BB has a 6 or a 4 and hits his gutshot I don't mind free cards. Along those same lines, if I go for the CR 1400 is fine - I want 88 to call. No need to put everyone else on the one hand that's dangerous.

Do I need to play top set that strong, though? The last thing I want anyone to do is fold that 88 or even a 65...hmm. I still don't know if I'd rather CR, check/call, or make a weak bet. It's a tough one.

The turn, I think, is the unquestionably correct part. I'm not overbetting this pot for any reason and that's the only bet that makes it correct for her to draw or semibluff raise.

Here's my two big problems on the river:

1)I have 4K left and she has 5K left. The pot's 6400. This isn't as big of a deal on Full Tilt because no one there has any clue about pot odds, but it's an issue.

2)What happens if I'm wrong about her flush draw?

So, with that in mind, who does what on the river?

[adanthar]

bump

[IvyGrizzly]

I'd personally bet around 2k. It's small enough that even on a scary board a lot of players will call with two pair, or by some odd chance trips. The immediate call on the turn probably indicates a draw, and not only that but the player thinks that draw will be the best hand if/when it hits. Betting about 1/3 of the pot lets a weak hand that doesn't want to lay down call you, and in most cases the flush will probably come back over the top. I don't know how much credit to give players in this game.

That's my thought process, anyway. I know you said you wanted the whole stack, but this line can give you a nice 2k boost instead of nothing from check-check or push-fold.

[Irieguy]

I don't mind your line at all. I didn't like the C/R on the flop at first, but after thinking about it some more, I think it's fine. I would usually lead at the flop and then C/R the turn because that's usually the betting rhythm that allows big money to get into the pot with a set assuming the turn doesn't bring the flush card. Once you fill up on the turn, I would probably do what you did.

I also like Sidekick's analysis. I like his river bet for the reasons he mentioned.

Irieguy

[jah0550]

Personally, I would bet about 1300-1500 on the river as a value bet. If the villian has a flush, they might not come over the top of you, but you can extract another thousand or so chips away from her, as she will most definately call.
BTW, I can't believe that it takes 2 hours to get the blinds t300. What is your hourly? I like their structure for a multi maybe, but for SNGs I'd still stick to Party. Hourly rate is easily 3x better there.

[adanthar]

My thoughts on the river went like this: "OK, if she made her flush and I bet 2K, is she calling or raising? If I check, she'll bet. How much?" followed by "If I'm wrong and she has an overpair/A7/nothing at all and puts me on a 7, how do I get the most out of this?"

So I went ahead...and checked. She thought, put me all in, and her A5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif was no good. But in retrospect (and the primary reason I posted it) I should've bet here. I'm just not sure if betting 1500 of a 4K stack would've set off any alarms.

It's pretty rare that I don't have a firm grip on a satellite hand.

PS: The blinds go 15/30 -> 20/40 -> 25/50 -> 30/60 -> 40/80 -> 50/100 -> 60/120 -> 80/160 -> 100/200 -> 120/240 -> 150/300. No, I'm not kidding. SNG's are incredibly weak tight with lots of stealing, but they take so long that the MTT's are the only really viable part of the site. Kinda fun, though.