secret to paradise?

Ive talked to a lot of people about paraidse poker and I seem to hear one thing over and over again. Everyone seems to have gone a temendous run right after they bought in, and then, thinking that they would be able to keep winning at this rate, they dont cash out until they have given most of it back and more. Has anyone else found this to be true? If so wouldnt it be wise for everyone who is new to the system to buy in and take advantage of the way this site is set up?

[Uston]

More players will play their first hand of internet poker on Paradise than on any other site. I have no proof of this other than the fact that they are the biggest site and advertise the most.

The speed of the games will cause fluctuations that you'd never see in live games.

You're much less likely to hear from the players who lose their initial buy-in quickly. You're also less likely to hear from players who had normal results distributions during their initial weeks of online play. You're also less likely to hear from players who have a clue about standard deviation.

Most players are losing players. Of course, over the short term, losing players can win. If they're extremely loose, they can win a lot. It's also a virtual certainty they will lose their winnings, and then some, if their game doesn't improve.

My first four days at Paradise were three years ago and they were ridiculous. I won around $1,300 playing 3/6 and 5/10, always playing only one table at a time. My next four days I gave back about $600. I will always be more willing to attribute the loss to bad play than a dishonest site.

The people that you are talking to are idiots.

I bring this up because the first time I played on paradise poker, I played for about 12 hours straight, and at the end of the night I was up approximately 5000 dollars. After about a week, I had given about 3/4 of that back. I have talked with a few people who have very similar stories.

[chris downs]

My experience doesn't match.

But I do see what you describe in B&M casinos all the time. Bad player goes on rush and accumulates lots of chips. But as the hours drag on, the wininnings are given back, then goes the buy in, then goes another buy in. Bad player then says something along the lines of "I should have cashed out when I was ahead".

I initially lost $4300 at paradise before winning anything.

[Tom D]

You wrote, "The speed of the games will cause fluctuations that you'd never see in live games."

That is incorrect.

You wrote, "You're much less likely to hear from the players who lose their initial buy-in quickly. You're also less likely to hear from players who had normal results distributions during their initial weeks of online play. You're also less likely to hear from players who have a clue about standard deviation."

None of these statements is true.

Tom D

Further to Tom D's insightful rebuttal, I'm curious to know how he came to those results.

My guess is that Paradise can deal 4-5 times more hands per hour then any real cardroom. Meaning, if you see 40 hands in an hour in a regular cardroom you're seeing anywhere from 150-200 hands in an hour at Paradise. Result, more hands equals bigger swings.

As for which player you're going to hear from more....well, judging from this forum alone people are more likely to tell you about their bad beat versus a hand they took down with pocket A's.

[Tom D]

You wrote, “Result, more hands equals bigger swings.”

That is incorrect, the same as it was when Uston wrote it.

You wrote, “Further to Tom D's insightful rebuttal, I'm curious to know how he came to those results.”

Why are you asking me how I came to my conclusions? Your first question should have been how Uston came to his conclusions. My post wasn't really a rebuttal; I just hit the ball back into his court.

Uston wrote, “You're much less likely to hear from the players who lose their initial buy-in quickly.”

How does he know that, how is it relevant to anything, and which side is it an argument for?

Uston also wrote, “You're also less likely to hear from players who had normal results distributions during their initial weeks of online play.”

I have the same questions for that statement as for the one above, but I’m amused that Uston concedes that results are abnormal sometimes.

Uston wrote, “You're also less likely to hear from players who have a clue about standard deviation.”

That I find particularly amusing, and it’s probably true, but not in the way Uston thinks. When he states that, “The speed of the games will cause fluctuations that you'd never see in live games”, he conclusively demonstrates that it is he who has no clue about standard deviation. Apparently, neither do you and a lot of other posters who think the speed = fluctuation argument has merit.

I appreciate irony.

Tom D

[Daithi]

Bought in for $60 and within two days turned it into $400 at low-limit holdem. I was playing well and don't think I was being handed good cards by PP. I was just outplaying my competitors.

A week later I'm down to $100. Obviously PP is cheating me and giving my winning cards to some other new player.

Just kidding. The reality is that I wasn't playing as well as I should have been. I've identified a weakness in my game and I'm fixing it.