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View Full Version : Checking handhistory against probability


Peter-23
02-21-2005, 05:36 AM
Does anyone know some software that compare the outcome of my game, i.e my handhistorys, against statistical probability.

Pokertracker and Pokeroffice does not do this. I would like to know how Im doing against mean value. I know most of the game is dependent on opposition but there are things that are independent of opposition. For example:

AA dealt 4% of the time against mean value X%
All non pair pocketcards made at least pair when flop seen X% vs mean X%.
How many flushboard seen X% vs mean X%.

And so on.


I have two objectives.

First
I want to know where am at. I mean, am I just having a bad streak of cards or am I a poor player. If Im a poor player this would help me better my game.

Second
There are many complaints about how cards are dealt and if the house, just slightly, deal cards to build rake or try to favour new players so they continue to play. Almost every serious player claim that foul play in this maner is very unlikely. Perhaps this is so and I acctually think that it probably is. But anyway is it really? I mean has anyone checked? Is it really so wrong for a player to ask about this? It's only claims and statements by people and organisations with some degree of power, not prof or at least verifiable data.


In regard to my first objective the point is that I want to se that a losing session was bad because I was dealt cards below mean value. Also I want to have confirmed that my game fluctuate around a mean value overall.

For example, when I get these kind of streaks,

AA 18% win rate for 20 times dealt in a row. (This is just a subset of cause have 75% overall).
At least board pair when flop seen: 16% over 1000 consecutive hands dealt.
JJ when made trip on the flop down 5 times in a row.

Then I want to have it confirmd as an abnormality. I would not really blame anyone to think that a streak like this is more than that! But I don't know !!!. Of cause its tecnically possible and these is just SUBSETs, overall its not this bad but anyway, is this probable in practice ??? If I were to get some abnormalitys on the up side as well then I think its empirically proven to be so.

In any case, I want to be as sure as possable but mostly I what to know that the cards dealt in my games fluctuate around the mean value not some other value!


In regard to the second objective I would think that if the cards really is dealt randomly then why am I so quickly dissmissed? Where is the problem? If they are fair then there is nothing to hide right? Lets check then and be done with it !!!

The only "prof" I has ever seen is statements that says how unlikely it would be or some kind of written document from some company who state independency and that they have investigated and claim that everything is fair.

But this is just statements, there is nothing about how that investigation were done and no data avaliable for verification.

THIS IN ITSELF IMPLIES FOUL PLAY doesn't it ???


I believe that the foudation of any game of poker is the game between players and the five card hands. So why am I a moron when I want to asure myself that this is also a fact online?

Some kind of software, preferably open licence so it could be verified would help very much.

If there is none I hope some pokersites take this on and fund one. It would definetly be in their own interest if they are to make their claims and statements about fairness believable.

Peter
PS. Sorry for my poor english.