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View Full Version : Read based allin bluff - should I have just folded?


parre
02-21-2005, 05:18 AM
5-10 SEK live game at my local card club. I have around 1100, villain has me covered. Villain is semi-drunk and not too tight. A few hands earlier, I bluffed villain out of a big pot on an Axxx-board after calling the flop and check-raising allin when he bet half pot on the turn because of a strong read that he was weak (I was right - he folded KK). After that I doubled him up w/ JT vs JK on a Jxx twoflush board when I re-raised all-in when he was shortstacked.

I get J9s and raise preflop (we are 6-handed, and I like a lot of raising and splashing around because I felt I could outplay my opponents postflop.

The flop comes A97r. I bet half pot, 75. Villain re-raises to 300 after some thinking, groaning and talking. I have a feeling that he is either on a bluff or has a weak ace which he will let go if I re-raise. I don't think he'd be willing to call off all off almost his whole stack with something like AT or AJ when faced with a large re-reraise. Even though my image is loose-maniacal, I rarely put in the third raise on a pure bluff - the third raise is usually put in in order to double up on someone who thinks I'm bluffing.

Should I push based on my strong read?

ninjaunderwear
02-21-2005, 06:08 AM
First off, funny that you mentioned that "Villain is semi-drunk" and even funnier that it actually makes a difference. Secondly, if there's a chance he's got an ace, you've got to be pretty damn sure he's going to fold his ace AFTER having called your pre-flop raise and then hitting an ace. Not sure what he would be doing calling a pre-flop raise with an ace-rag or ace-paint if he was going to fold after hits the flop.

It looks like one of those win a little or lose alot situations, and I think in the long run, you'd lose more money with a play like that then you'd win.

parre
02-21-2005, 07:54 AM
He said after the hand that he put me on AK or maybe AQ, so he probably would fold A-paint to a third raise.