TT on the bubble

[dfscott]

Big stack had been min-raising a lot of hands on the bubble, but not every single one (probably about 3/4 of them). He'd been lucky as hell, but also seemed to be a decent player. He'd also been calling most re-raises.

Also, UTG had been playing ultra-tight (as had I) and had almost been blinded away before the big stack had doubled him up with AA about 2 hands before this one.

SB seemed fairly loose and was mixing it up with the big stack, so a lot of chips were going back and forth between them.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1270)
Hero (t770)
UTG (t660)
Button (t5300)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ???

[ChrisV]

Call and bet allin most flops. This is superior to reraising preflop because he'll definitely call - but you are going to need a real disaster flop to not go allin here. You'll need at least AKx, KQx or say Axx three of a suit you don't have.

[sng-sam]

Push or fold. You &amp; UTG are both sweating the bubble. If you fold UTG is in BB for 100 and only has 560 left. It's possible he could do your dirty work for you after all with your chipstack you are likely only gunning for 3rd. So folding here puts the heat on UTG for next hand. or.....Push. You likely will be called but you have a great 4 handed pushing hand. If Button is as loose as you say you may double up ensureing your place in the money. I would fold. but I have no balls.

Rick

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and bet allin most flops. This is superior to reraising preflop because he'll definitely call - but you are going to need a real disaster flop to not go allin here. You'll need at least AKx, KQx or say Axx three of a suit you don't have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the idea of calling and pushing. I pushed, and the flop came:

Q/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

If I hadn't pushed pre-flop, easy push here, right?

[The Armchair]

I think I would have pushed preflop here. I don't know if that's the right move, but I feel like that is what I would have done.

The problem is that the button has excellent odds here. Pot is 500 plus your 460 raise, so he's getting about 2:1. It's hard for him not to call. So, stop-and-go (call preflop/push the flop) may be better -- if he doesn't think he has a 33% shot to win after the flop comes down, you may get a fold.

But even that, I think, is unlikely. He gets some added equity by eliminating you, and therefore, regardless of the flop, I'd expect a call to your push or an all-in to your check. Can you call if the board comes down AJx or three babies to a suit other than yours? It's a hard decision, admittedly. Folding a would-be winner here is a catastrophe. Therefore, push pre-flop.

[curtains]

I don't like calling and pushing on the flop here, I feel like TT is too strong a hand, and that in general you are only going to fold hands with one overcard on the flop.
Meanwhile the 500 extra chips could come in handy the majority of the times you win those hands.
Also I think the button will fold sometimes (although i wouldnt count on it)
Bascially your hand is just way too strong 4 handed, it doesnt feel like the right time to try anything fancy.

[Gramps]

If the 2nd place stack was way ahead of you, I might be a little more protective of 3rd and be more inclined to go along with the call and see what develops on the flop strategy, but TT is a huge favorite against the button's described range of hands (like 70% or so), and winning an all-in puts you in 2nd chip position (with a sizeable lead on 4th).

You described UTG as playing not to lose at all costs, so...unless SB mixes it up and gets knocked out first (and even previously reckless players often wise up on the bubble with two shorter stacks), it's going to be a fold off contest, in which you have a slight edge on UTG but not huge. Thus, even the times you make top-3 you may be left with next to nothing, taking 1st completely out of the equation, and sometimes losing much of a shot at 2nd. Playing not to lose here isn't the way to go IMO.

I say push preflop and live with the consequences. What advantage do you gain by just calling PF and then pushing on the flop? Maybe it's a scary flop (a couple of overcards, etc.), and you get away. Well...the button is raising pretty much any two cards, so that means you also "get away" oftentimes when you're still way ahead. At least one overcard is going to come &gt; 2/3 of the time.

Now, if your strategy is to push most flops (i.e. even when an overcard or two is present), what happens? If the button doesn't have shat, he probably folds and keeps the extra 570 chips you could have gotten in preflop. If he's ahead, he's going to call still - your call PF and push on flop ain't knocking out a better hand on the flop (he's loose and has great pot odds). Maybe he'll call sometimes with a pair smaller then tens and pay you off still without many outs, but he probably would have put the 570 in PF anyhow if you'd pushed. Those 570 chips are very, very valuable in the bubble situation described - both to lock up at least 3rd, and to have a good shot at 2nd.

Given that the button is raising about 3/4 of his hands, it's going to be impossible to know if the flop hit him or not. More times than not you won't flop trips or all undercards. The vast majority of the time you call PF and push the flop, that flop pushing will only fold out hands you want to call, and get called by hands you're beat by. Most of the hands you'd want to call the flop push (but don't) would have donated another 570 to a PF push. When you're beat on the flop, you'll have no way of knowing it and won't be able to use some magical poker skill/intuition to "outplay/outthink" your opponent from there.

Get your chips in PF. If you get called and lose, oh well, sh-t happens. TT is a damn fine hand (better than AK) against the button's probable range of hands.

[dfscott]

Thanks, all, for the advice. I pushed pre-flop and caught him with Q8s. Unfortunately, he hit the Q on the flop but I'd gotten my money in when I was ahead, so I can't complain.