Rough luck with AA [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

bighomage

02-21-2005, 01:06 AM

In my first 5000 or so hands of playing at .5/1 on Party, I have had AA 23 times with a net profit of $2.87, or $.12 a hand. I know that the sample size is small, but as overpowering as AA is, this is feeling a little ridicuous. I think somebody with down syndrome could win more money with AA over this stretch than I have. Does this seem weird to anybody who's played a lot, or just a normal streak of bad luck that I'm going to have to put up with? Overall, I've been running well, so I'm not too put off by it, I just thought it was a little odd.

Greg J

02-21-2005, 01:10 AM

That is odd, esp when much of a player's profit comes from this hand alone. It's a statistical fluke. It will even out.

milesdyson

02-21-2005, 01:11 AM

Obviously small sample. Remember, AA is a single pair and rarely improves.

My friend with down syndrome is at 3.76 BB/hand with AA over 56 hands, for whatever that's worth.

toss

02-21-2005, 01:11 AM

It is sample size. Its nearly impossible to not win any $$ with AA unless you play it really passively.

gvibes

02-21-2005, 02:41 AM

I was going to post about how KK was a loser for me after 30 hands, but then the following two hands played out on two different tables, at the same time...

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 (poster) checks, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls $0.27 (All-In).

Final Pot: 16.52 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh Kd (flush, ace high).
MP2 has 2h 4d (flush, ace high).
CO has 7c 7s (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 16.52 BB. 

---------------------------

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (9 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Button raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kc Ks (flush, ace high).
Button has 9c Ad (two pair, aces and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.50 BB. 

Pretty sweet, huh?

EDIT: My flop call in the second hand was a little thin, it looks like... I think that I thought I had a bd straight draw too, for some reason. Villain was passive, and I'm pretty sure wouldn't raise without an ace.

NAU_Player

02-21-2005, 02:54 AM

That is a pretty bad run man. After 6750 hands I've had AA 30 times with a net profit of $155. Have you posted some of your hands for critique? I found that my first couple of times I was either too agressive when I has clearly beaten, or not agressive enough when I was ahead.

Part of the problem I've had with hands like KK and QQ is that after a run like the one you seem to be having, I start playing scared. Which is, obviously, the worst thing you can do. I would just suggest looking at old hands, and evaluating the way you play them.

Good Luck!

stillbr

02-21-2005, 03:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In my first 5000 or so hands of playing at .5/1 on Party, I have had AA 23 times with a net profit of $2.87, or $.12 a hand. I know that the sample size is small, but as overpowering as AA is, this is feeling a little ridicuous. I think somebody with down syndrome could win more money with AA over this stretch than I have. Does this seem weird to anybody who's played a lot, or just a normal streak of bad luck that I'm going to have to put up with? Overall, I've been running well, so I'm not too put off by it, I just thought it was a little odd.

[/ QUOTE ]

id be willing to bet your slowplaying your AA when the flop comes down and looks very favorable for you--trying to get an extra big bet on the turn. This is a mistake-- Play your aces faster. That said im sure your seeing the bad end of varience.

Bulbarainey

02-21-2005, 04:30 AM

my AA is 6.47 Avg/Hand... but my KK is losing... -0.97....anyone having similiar results?

Francis

02-21-2005, 05:15 AM

When I started playing 6 months ago, I thought AA was the tits. I'd slow play them, trying to get "maximum" value from them..

It took about 7000 hands to realize getting tricky w/them is a mistake. Now I jam the pot PF, attack like hell if the flop is ragged, and slow way down when it looks scary. At .5/1, if people continue to call you by at the river, they probably have a set or at least 2 pair...

Play your AA's hard, and be happy when you win the blinds. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

radek2166

02-21-2005, 05:36 AM

Better Question is win%. Mines 80% after 50k hands

TwoShedsJackson

02-21-2005, 05:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
. At .5/1, if people continue to call you by at the river, they probably have a set or at least 2 pair...

[/ QUOTE ]

Errr, no. They also call with mid pair, busted flushes and straights and sweet fuck all.

SeeWillie

02-21-2005, 12:13 PM

Liten to Francis and stillbr. The way to look at AA is as a consistent winner of modest pots that add up over the long run. The profit from AA comes from its consistency, NOT from the size of the pots. Play fast and protect your overpair.

DavidC

02-21-2005, 12:17 PM

You're right that it's a statistical anomyly (wow, I hope I spelled that correctly).

I think I'm a lot higher than that: maybe 2.5 BB/hand or so.

Once you play 45000 more hands, it should perk up. That being said, you might want to post some of these AA hands, to make sure you got as much value as you could out of them.

Good luck in the future, bro.

--Dave.

Edit: After reading about the down syndrome kid with 3.76 bb/100, I went to PT and actually checked it: I've got 3.78 over 8500 hands. IN YOUR FACE, DOWNY!

donkeyradish

02-21-2005, 12:26 PM

At 0.5/1 on Party I won with AA the last 21 times in a row... which is pretty odd (but in a pleasant sort of way). Only around 70% over all hands though so ... there must have been some lean periods.

Altaslim

02-21-2005, 12:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think somebody with down syndrome could win more money with AA over this stretch than I have.

[/ QUOTE ]

My sister has Down Syndrome and I don't appreciate your use of it here. How about something more appropriate like, "I think even a bigger [censored] than me could win more money with AA over this stretch than I have."

DavidC

02-21-2005, 12:48 PM

Arg.

Hate to admit it, but you're right.

My comment was in poor taste.

--Dave.

Uppercut

02-21-2005, 12:50 PM

My luck with AA has also been lousy. I recntly lost to T3o when a 4 flush hit the board, and to K5o when a 4 straight hit the board. For the first eleven months of recording my play, I was averaging under 1 BB each time I played AA. It barely cracked my Top 10 hands. (Not as bad as your results, but still subpar.) Then in January, everything changed. My AA starting holding up unimproved and I ended up earning as much money in that one month with AA as I did in the previous eleven combined. Of course, now in February, I cannot seem to win anymore, but I still don't think I will start folding the hand preflop. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Altaslim

02-21-2005, 12:53 PM

FWIW, I've gotten AA 175 times and am winning with it 84.62% of the time.

Without seeing any specific hands I think your results are a combination of bad postflop luck and a tendency/desire to slowplay them to generate more action. Interesting though that many times when I come out firing with AA I eliminate players who might draw out/get lucky so I guess one is a function of the other.

Another option could be to look at how you protect this hand beyond raising preflop. Specifically, do you take advantage of opportunities to c/r. I've found this to be very effective when I can pull it off.

bighomage

02-21-2005, 01:04 PM

Contrary to what it may seem, I've been doing anything but slowplaying aces. My aggression factor after the flop has been about 3.30 after 5k hands, and my play with aces has been anything but slow. Also interesting to note, my best hand is KK which I've also had about the same number of times (22), with a net average of $5 per pot. So, I think I'm playing my big pairs all right, and I've actually managed to lay down the aces when I'm clearly beat. So, this run seems even more surprising considering I've made money with my other big pocket pairs (QQ and TT are also in my top 5).

bighomage

02-21-2005, 01:07 PM

I apologize. I realize the comment was in bad taste.

flopwell

02-21-2005, 01:15 PM

that sounds like you are losing to the "any Ace" holders

OilMan

02-21-2005, 01:27 PM

Sample size is too small. You could easily win $20 the very next time you get pocket aces. This would move you from $0.12/hand to almost $1.00/hand after 23 hands.

Absolution

02-21-2005, 01:59 PM

One of the most satisfying plays for me is to spike trips with a big pair, have all these chasers call you down to the river with backdoor flushes and what not and then the river gives them their draw, but also pairs the board. Having chasers come alive on the river when you have the nuts - so...good.

A little off topic I know. Anyway:

- sample size too slow
- look for check-raise opportunities