Ace-Magnets Flop Decision - with a poll!

[Redd]

Pacific Poker $0.05/$0.10 (10 Handed)

Hero is cutoff with K/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop comes A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 Players, 15.5SB). <font color="red">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero...

So I really can't protect very well here, and the pot is pretty freakin' big. I've seen BB play draws and made hands fairly aggressively, but not so much that he didn't at least catch a piece of the flop here.

[yellowjack]

I don't understand how 3 of 4 people said to call. At least someone out there has got to have an ace, and you're reduced to 2 outs right? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nick Royale]

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I've seen BB play draws and made hands fairly aggressively, but not so much that he didn't at least catch a piece of the flop here.

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"catch a piece of the flop". Would that mean a made hand like pair of aces/aces up? Or would he also bet a flush/OESD?

[Redd]

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I've seen BB play draws and made hands fairly aggressively, but not so much that he didn't at least catch a piece of the flop here.

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"catch a piece of the flop". Would that mean a made hand like pair of aces/aces up? Or would he also bet a flush/OESD?

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Yes and yes. I'm trying to say that he's a reasonably aggressive player, but not a complete lag. He'd likely bet any ace, any two clubs, or possibly a two or a four if his radio just put on some rage music. But he wouldn't bet KT no clubs.

Redd

[Nick Royale]

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I don't understand how 3 of 4 people said to call. At least someone out there has got to have an ace, and you're reduced to 2 outs right?

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I voted call. No one needs to have an ace. If someone does you're getting 19.5:1 on a 1:22 draw. With the implied odds of a set it's a call. I would really like to hold the K/images/graemlins/club.gif, but it's still a call IMO.

[hate]

Although the pot's huge, and you've got the outs to look for your set, I voted to fold because you don't have the K/images/graemlins/club.gif. You've got no other draws, you can't get out whatever trash gutshots those morons might be sitting on.

[tytygoodnuts]

I voted raise, but after reading some responses and thinking about it I would call instead. 19.5:1 plus closing the action is good stuff against your average .05/.10 player. Folding is a huge mistake. (Sorry hate, me and you don't seem to agree much.)

[Nick Royale]

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Although the pot's huge, and you've got the outs to look for your set, I voted to fold because you don't have the K/images/graemlins/club.gif.

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It would be nice to have the K/images/graemlins/club.gif.

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You've got no other draws, you can't get out whatever trash gutshots those morons might be sitting on.

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You shouldn't fear the gut-shots.

I think you're neglecting the possibility you're ahead here. I've seen no action on the flop that tells me I'm behind 100%. Without calculating I would say you're ahead at very least 10% of the time. Did I mention the pot is hugh?

[Redd]

The evolution of the results thus far has been interesting - just went from 3/3/3 to 3/3/5 for raising. Hopefully the close results mean that I posted an interesting hand. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[hate]

No problem. I just see myself improving to second best hand way too many times with a field that big, if I improve at all, which is going to happen rarely. Sitting on the K/images/graemlins/club.gif, it's an easier call, not only because I'll have a pretty good chance of winning with 4-flush outs, but also because any K I hit is clean.

[Nick Royale]

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The evolution of the results thus far has been interesting - just went from 3/3/3 to 3/3/5 for raising.

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That's intressting. I would really like someone of the raiser to give their ideas. I'm not saying they're wrong, but I can't see that much use of a raise here.

[Hojglad]

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The evolution of the results thus far has been interesting - just went from 3/3/3 to 3/3/5 for raising.

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That's intressting. I would really like someone of the raiser to give their ideas. I'm not saying they're wrong, but I can't see that much use of a raise here.

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Probably because they've been conditioned to believe that calling is "weak-tight." /images/graemlins/smile.gif I don't see much utility in a raise here either. We are most likely raising a better hand. However, the guy might not like his kicker. This could result in a free card. But uh, we're drawing to 2 outs. Someone's probably got an ace. I'd say call and fold the turn unimproved.

[hate]

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You shouldn't fear the gut-shots.


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I completely agree, but with a field this big and as loose as I assume a limit this low to be, not being able to limit the field is a big problem to me. Ok, with 2 or 3 people in the game, I've got a better chance of being ahead, and I can penalize gutshots.

In random cards, we've got a 44% chance somebody else has an A for the current players. Aces are played more prevalently, I don't know how to quantify that. No chances to limit the field, and we've got a perhaps dirty K. I'm still leaning towards fold, but I'm really not sure now. Perhaps I might call and fold on the turn UI, but I don't think this is showdown-worthy.

[milesdyson]

Raising sucks here. I voted call because I don't mind seeing the K/images/graemlins/club.gif on the turn against such a huge field.

If the K/images/graemlins/club.gif hits on the turn, BB bets, they all call, we raise for value with our full house draw (plus the fact that we're ahead a decent amount of times with a set of kings, anyway).

[Shillx]

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The evolution of the results thus far has been interesting - just went from 3/3/3 to 3/3/5 for raising.

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That's intressting. I would really like someone of the raiser to give their ideas. I'm not saying they're wrong, but I can't see that much use of a raise here.

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Folding is wrong. Raising is silly. Calling is far and away the best option here. We can re-evaluate on the turn, but we will be taking this one to a showdown a good % of the time.

Brad

[btspider]

i call.

[Nick Royale]

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In random cards, we've got a 44% chance somebody else has an A for the current players. Aces are played more prevalently, I don't know how to quantify that. No chances to limit the field, and we've got a perhaps dirty K. I'm still leaning towards fold, but I'm really not sure now. Perhaps I might call and fold on the turn UI, but I don't think this is showdown-worthy.

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If the flop agressor bets the turn we might have to consider folding (although I'll probably not fold the turn for 1BB). But if nobody holds an ace we will often be checked to on the turn in which case we should bet. And if checked to a player on my right who bets, I'm probably raising to get it limit the field and take a free showdown. This will happen quite often IMO.

[Redd]

Thanks to everyone for their input. Another interesting evolution of the poll: as soon as Shillx and btspider gave their opinions, the vote shifted in favor of call. I'll white out the results below, for the curious:

<font color="white">I called here. Turn and river were bricks, and I did end up showing it down. Villain had A9o, and one of the callers had AJo. I guess that's why they call them ace magnets.</font>

Redd

[MelchyBeau]

Ok, I'm not very good, so you need to take my advice with caution.

I think raising might be good here, It could allow you to get a free card, if you think he might be scared. If he reraises you could have the information you need to fold.

also do you think he can fold to a raise?

I'm not so egotistical to not be able to accept me being wrong. So I'd like to hear why my idea is wrong if it is.

Melch

[Redd]

I think one of the problems with raising is that villain would likely 3-bet a decent ace or two clubs. If you're getting 3-bet with hands that beat you and hands that don't, then you won't get any information for your SB, and it's not a clear fold if villain 3-bets it.

[OilMan]

I would call here and plan on folding to any action on the turn. I'm pretty sure you would no longer have odds to draw to a bigger turn bet (if your K did not come).

However, the decision to call or fold is very close. I don't think either would be a bad play.

Even if the K of clubs came on the turn and gave somebody a flush, you will still have 10 outs for the full house. With the curent pot size, you will definitely have great pot odds for that draw.

[Entity]

The only option I really hate here is raising.