Turn bet is it correct?

[Swiss Cheese]

Game is short handed (5 players). I dont have much info on blinds except they are predictable. Player to my right is tight and sommewhat aggressive, but has been running poorly of late...confidence is shaken.

called all the way to BB who raises..this means Big pair or AK even in shorthanded game. player to my right and I call with my j-4d, sb and bb call.

Flop is 4h-8d-9dSb checks BB bets utg(player on my right) calls I raise. Sb mucks BB calls Utg calls 3 players.

Turn is a blank 2s or somthing along those lines. checked to me do I bet? BB has AK I am 99% sure but the UTG player has me beat with a 9 or a 7. I am very sure on the read on the players. I am sure the Utg has only 1 pair and a medium kicker which may be a J. I am not counting on the J as an out, even though it may be.

I would like to know who bets and who checks. and for what reason would you do both.


Thanks in advance..results in a separate post...not that it matters but I will finish the hand.


Swiss Cheese

[Swiss Cheese]

I bet the turn and BB folds UTG calls. Thew river brings 6d Checked I bet he pays off. I never seen the hand but know I was beat till I rivered the flush.

Thanks for information

Swiss Cheese

[Kevin J]

If you know you're beat AND your opponent is not likely to fold, you have very little reason to bet. IMO-

[Swiss Cheese]

There is no value in the draw? If my read is wrong and he is on a draw also the bet on the turn which may get the BB to fold? I think you are correct just playing devils advocate.

Swiss Cheese

Swiss Cheese,

Given your analysis, checking is the correct play here. You have at most 14 outs if the remaining Jacks are good outs. Even with an optimistic 14 outs you need at least 3 opponents to justify a bet here. I'm also assuming that you won't be able to push UTG off of his hand by betting (which sounds reasonable given your description).

-- Manzanita

[Boris]

Of course you bet. There are a gazillion draws on the board. There is a decent chance you sucked out with your piece of cheese.

Would you check and then call a bet on the river? I don't think your hand is nearly good enough for that play.

[Boris]

"BB has AK I am 99% sure but the UTG player has me beat with a 9 or a 7. I am very sure on the read on the players."

With that flop and the action you describe, I don't know how you can be so sure of your read on UTG. I'm always "very sure" of my read after the fact. But with that flop I don't think you can narrow down UTG holdings very much. In any event, the way you described the betting I'd be more inclined to think UTG doesn't yet have a pair.

Preflop J4s on the button shorthanded is an iffy call to begin with. Your play on the flop is fine.
I will raise virtually everytime. If you are that sure of your read on the turn then why bet? Sure
your draw has some value, but you are an underdog. Knocking the big blind accomplishes little
because you are pretty sure he has a big Ace. Unless you improve your hand you will lose in a
showdown so why put more money voluntarily in the pot. Let's say you check and on the river
the big blind now decides to bluff at the pot, you will now possibly trap UTG and you will get
a chance to raise.

Bruce

[Kevin J]

I believe in drawing as cheaply as possible unless the bets you plan on collecting exceed the odds of your draw.

"I am very sure on the read on the players."

I'm also assuming this statement is correct.