Lay down TPTK with monster draw?

[IgorSmiles]

1/2 game and I've got about $600. I'm in mid pos and look down to see A /images/graemlins/spade.gif/K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Guy who has me covered opens for $15 I call and so does a late player who has about $500. I consider popping it up but decide to take a flop as I have position on the raiser.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Original raiser bets out $20. Again, I think about popping it but smooth call figuring I'm in front and this guy is just following up his preflop raise with a flop bet. I'll hammer him on the turn. 3rd player folds. Turn is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif:. He bets $50, I raise to $100, he quickly says "all in."

Thougths?

[DrPublo]

Raise the flop. Find out if you're ahead, and if so, don't give KK or JJ or something a chance to hit. Also by making a play for the pot here you may be able to take a timid player off AK.

Given that you didn't raise the flop, don't raise the turn. The turn is a great card for you, but even so you don't want to face a reraise, and certainly not one for all your chips. Now that he pushed you have to do some complicated mental math about the times you're behind vs the times you're ahead as well as your chances of catching up. Given the action I think it's safe to assume he has AQ or better. Thus best case scenario you have 15 outs, worst case 8 flush outs (because if he has a set, the 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is no good). In terms of a weighted average of his holdings you can probably give yourself 11-12 outs.

Doing the math, there should be $285 in the pot before he pushes. His push covers you for $465. So you're getting 730:465 or about 3:2 here, and thus it's a fold. That's unfortunate because your hand has lots of ways to improve but the money is too deep. You can adjust your outs a little bit for the percentage of the time he also has AK and you're freerolling him, but given the action two pair at a minimum seems likely.

Hope it worked out.

The Doc

[wontons]

By the way i read the post after you made that mini-reraise didn't it feel wrong ...i would put this raise on either a set..or 2 pair but by how deeps the stacks are i would def be thinking set..and yes its a clear fold...i say learn from it.

[brucey]

You are easily behind here on the turn and he is giving you a cheap draw. I would of flat called the turn to see the river and take it from there. By minimum raising the turn you have to fold if he pushes all in unless you feel like gambling to hit your flush.

[IgorSmiles]

If I smooth called the turn bet, and missed, how much should I be willing to pay off on the river? I admit, raising the flop is generally the play here because I'd have a better idea as to what he was holding, but I assumed I was ahead.

Brucey, how are you so sure that I'm behind on the turn? He raised preflp and bet the flop, I never defined my hand so he could be betting with anything. Once I mini reraised and he played back...well now both hands have been defined, but up to that point it didnt seem so obvious to me.