My pushing/folding analysis program

[eastbay]

is not yet released but I have created a website and forum for people who are interested.

I really don't want to spam the forums about this as there will be a commercial element to this progam if it works out as well as I expect it could. But I hope it's fair game to give a pointer to the website, as quite a few people have shown interest in the screenshots I've been showing recently.

Come on over, give your ideas/suggestions, and look for the release announcements.

http://sitngo-analyzer.com

eastbay

[imported_bingobazza]

eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo,

I don't think so, but I definitely considered how wise it would be for my bankroll to release something like this.

When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

I think this is similar (on a much smaller scope, of course - this tool is pretty darn specialized). Yes, the players who are willing to learn can use this tool to really ramp them up in these things, just like a newbie who reads and studies HPFAP. I have little doubt about that. But I also think that too many players just aren't willing to do that. They just wanna play for fun and all this thinking or reviewing hands stuff is not for them.

I'm not worried... yet. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

eastbay

[lorinda]

I think you're right Eastbay.

It's one thing to have a program that says "EV of raising with XX given that opponent calls with YY-ZZ", it's still a skill to know what the opponent is likely to call with and then interpret the data accurately.

I think that many of the more experienced players already do this instinctively to a degree.

Your reply to my 'guesses' a few days ago about one hand was quite revealing.

Lori

[ilya]

Thanks eastbay.

I don't think this program will kill SnGs. Rather, I think it'll help players who are serious about improving do so more quickly, as they'll be able to spend more time thinking and less time merely doing tedious calculations. Plus, it's not like this program makes it possible to do anything that a patient person with access to a calculator can't already do.

I know I'll be getting it.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brunson said the same thing about Super System and there are threads in the Zoo worrying about too many people saying "brown trout" at the tables and leading people to these forums.

At the end of the day, people who want to learn will find tools to do it and those that don't, won't use them even if they're served up on a silver platter.

[1C5]

Cool! I checked out the webpage. Looks very neat.

One question. How useful will this prgram be in cases where we have no read on one of the players? Sometimes common for 4+ tablers. Is there a range to plug in that an "average" player might call with late in the game?

[Mr_Gordon]

I agree I don't think this is going to kill sng's. It seems to me that sng's are sort of the avant-garde of online poker. I think the majority of people that play them are just giving it a try to get away from the grind. This is especially evident now that PokerProphecy is available. Countless times I see peoples stats and they have played 2 or 3 sng's at every level. For all of the fish sng's are as far from the norm of poker as you can get. MTT's are all that is seen on T.V. and cash games are usually all that they have been exposed to at home. Even on twoplustwo there are a number of posts by long term posters asking: Are these "things" really profitable? So I think that the only people that this will effect are the ones that are actively pursuing this information to begin with. That being said I do think it will be an excellent asset for the people that do use it.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Cool! I checked out the webpage. Looks very neat.

One question. How useful will this prgram be in cases where we have no read on one of the players? Sometimes common for 4+ tablers. Is there a range to plug in that an "average" player might call with late in the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There is a default "average" calling standard. At this moment this is 77+, AT+, but I'm open to a better default. There are also one-click presets for "tight", "loose", and "maniac" (you can customize each of these to your liking). Or, if you want to get more detailed, you can enter any specific range of hands you want.

This program may also teach you that it is important to have some clue about what you might be called be before you make your move. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

eastbay

[TheAmp]

Hi eastbay,

Looks great.

It's Funny how some people react to new idea's. Fear is so common. Don't you people know by now that fish will always swim in the sea? if it's not SNG poker, you will be able to beat them some place else. Don't worry, this learning tool, or poker prophecy (or whatever else) is not likely change anything. If it will, be optimistic.

I love it. And I salute inventors.

How is the EV calculated?

Is it based on party poker prize structure?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I love it. And I salute inventors.


How is the EV calculated?

Is it based on party poker prize structure?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

The $EV is based on the ICM method which has been discussed here at length. It considers all the stacks and the prize structure that you select. By default, this is the Party Poker structure, but you will be able to select from the common sites' structures, or define your own.

There are no "secrets" in this program. I will be writing up the methods used in detail at some point and posting them on the web site. The value of the program is in saving you the trouble of going through all the calculations by hand.

eastbay

[danng721]

This program will seriously kick ass.

I'm wondering how hard it would be to calculate the EV of someone raising you, but not all in - as in, the EV of reraising all in or the EV of folding.

For example:
Blinds 100/200
You're in BB with A7
Button min-raises you, you have him on a range.
What is the EV of re-raising all in, or folding?

Or calling, if that's possible to calculate with some assumptions?

I would seriously pay for this tool, or at least donate. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lorinda]

As you're about I'll ask here.

Is this a stand alone tool? I can't use any other spreadsheets and the suchlike posted here because they all involve owning other programs, I'd just like to know if I can own this with the most basic of Windows packages.

Lori

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This program will seriously kick ass.

I'm wondering how hard it would be to calculate the EV of someone raising you, but not all in - as in, the EV of reraising all in or the EV of folding.

For example:
Blinds 100/200
You're in BB with A7
Button min-raises you, you have him on a range.
What is the EV of re-raising all in, or folding?

Or calling, if that's possible to calculate with some assumptions?

I would seriously pay for this tool, or at least donate. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

I mentioned somewhere on the website that more calculators are planned - this is the first one to do after open-push and call all-in. Allowing a limper or raiser behind.

Since this involves a good deal more information, I didn't want to clutter up the open-push calculator with all of that and make it look too confusing. So I plan on having a separate calculator for the limper/raiser case.

I also have a great idea for a v2 of this program that will handle all of these different cases in a single interface. But v1 is too close to being ready and too useful as-is to not finish it ASAP before moving onto that.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
As you're about I'll ask here.

Is this a stand alone tool? I can't use any other spreadsheets and the suchlike posted here because they all involve owning other programs, I'd just like to know if I can own this with the most basic of Windows packages.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Lori,

It is a fully standalone windows app that should run on Win95 or better.

eastbay

[FishBurger]

Awesome tool! Do you have any plans to incorporate this program with another program that tracks the other players at the table and automatically determines if they are loose or tight?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Awesome tool! Do you have any plans to incorporate this program with another program that tracks the other players at the table and automatically determines if they are loose or tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in immediate future, no.

Note that this is intended more as a review/learning tool than a real-time game aid at present. There's a discussion on my forum about the sticky issues surrounding going that route of real-time analysis.

eastbay

[IvyGrizzly]

So is it just a simple number-crunching Vbasic program? I had considered tinkering around with something similar but didn't have the motivation to trudge through everything.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
So is it just a simple number-crunching Vbasic program? I had considered tinkering around with something similar but didn't have the motivation to trudge through everything.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not written in Vbasic.

I think if you tried to write it you might drop the "just" and "simple", but yes, it is an analysis, aka number crunching, program.

Of course, every program is in some sense "just number crunching." That's what programs do.

eastbay

[IvyGrizzly]

[ QUOTE ]

I think if you tried to write it you might drop the "just" and "simple", but yes, it is an analysis, aka number crunching, program.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, when you take all of the issues into account it probably becomes a lot more complicated. How long is a simulation taking on your beta?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think if you tried to write it you might drop the "just" and "simple", but yes, it is an analysis, aka number crunching, program.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, when you take all of the issues into account it probably becomes a lot more complicated. How long is a simulation taking on your beta?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is essentially instantaneous when the number of players is 6 or less. For 10 players, it takes a ~10 seconds on my 1 GHz machine, since the ICM method generates a full combinatoric tree of finish possibilities.

But generally this tool shines for shorthanded play anyway, so I don't consider that much of a problem.

eastbay

[imported_bingobazza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo,

I don't think so, but I definitely considered how wise it would be for my bankroll to release something like this.

When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

I think this is similar (on a much smaller scope, of course - this tool is pretty darn specialized). Yes, the players who are willing to learn can use this tool to really ramp them up in these things, just like a newbie who reads and studies HPFAP. I have little doubt about that. But I also think that too many players just aren't willing to do that. They just wanna play for fun and all this thinking or reviewing hands stuff is not for them.

I'm not worried... yet. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay

Im kinda apprehensive about posting this, as its only my third post, and lots of very clever people have already rubbished my post...but I feel strongly that I should clarify my thoughts from my initial post. I really hope that you prove me wrong.

1) A lot of our +EV, but not all of it, comes from people who make plays that are incorrect based on c and $(EV)

2)This this tool is likely to lessen the gap between those that currently understand and apply these concetps well, and those that dont, but who will use this tool in the future.

3)I agree with your stance above absolutely for the lower buy in levels. The population of players there is so lazy and uninformed generally (except 2+2ers ofcourse). The uninformed here will largely remain so.

4)However, the playing population is much different at higher limits, $215 and up. At the higher levels, opponents are MUCH more likely to know about this forum, and hence this tool, and Im sure a clever bloke like you will have a marketing strategy will target the rest!

5) To quote JASucker - Even a small % increase in players playing with the correct strategy will mean that the games become very difficult to beat. (as enigmatic as JAsucker is, I think he is referring to this type if strategy adjustment by poor players)

I think that some posters have underestimated the impact and the penetration rate of this tool at higher limits (or maybe im overestimating the penetration rate?). At high limits, there are several implications;

a) You will HAVE to have this, or be disadvantaged as a reult.
b) If everyone has it, there will be no change...provided everyone has the same proportion of +ev from taking advantage of their opponents poor (ev) plays. This is unlikely to be true in reality.
c) If around 40%-60% of players have it, that 40-60% will, overtime make up the entire REGULAR population of players at that level FOR A PERIOD as the others will slowly bleed to death or get this tool. If this is the case, there will be less +ev for the players who previously played correctly, in the way that Tiger Woods forced other players to work harder to catch up with him a few years back, and now no longer dominates. The good players will then look for contrarian strategies which are currently unknown to counter this game change. The tool may then becomes less important when the contrarian strategies become the norm for the good players.
d) If around 10% of players have it, they will increase their EV by making more better decisions faster.

I really hope D is the case, but I suspect that C may be the case over time. Maybe Im giving players at higher limits too much credit? Time will tell...depending on the penetration rate. I can't imagine a good player knowing about this and not having it. So it could come down to your marketing.

Bingobazza

PS - I think you alluded to a good point - this is much more specialised than HPFAP - thats why its impact on the specialised SNG world COULD be large...but make little or no difference to the general poker playing population outside SNGs. I wonder what Strassa, Gigabet, JAsucker and other high buy in players will think of this, cos what do I know, I love bingo.

[imported_bingobazza]

eastbay

I forgot to say a couple of very important things:

Firstly, thankyou every much for doing this...it really is a great piece of kit and I will definitely be using it every day when its ready.

Secondly, evolution generally isnt a bad thing for the species, but it can be for the individual if he was highly evolved to begin with and others are now evolving at a faster rate than him, even though they cannot evolve past him.


Bingobazza

[FishBurger]

I've been playing SnGs for almost two years now and this will be the first piece of helper software I buy. I haven't purchased pokertracker because it looks too clunky and I doubt that it would have a direct impact on my bottom line. Eastbay's software looks very easy to use and it will almost assuredly have a direct impact on my bottom line.

I plan on using it to help me kill the 20s and I can't imagine players at higher levels not having it (or something like it).

[splashpot]

Any guess on a release date? Or price?

[raptor517]

in the 109s, when i push, i get called by crap as bad as A3, 22, K7, Q8, etc. its terrible. i would lower the average at LEAST to A7 or so.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Any guess on a release date? Or price?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have finalized some details on my forum. See top post in this thread for a link.

eastbay

[Mr_Gordon]

bump

[curtains]

Anyone who thinks that programs like this will kill sit and gos are completely insane. Everytime a new program comes out you get about 10 posts about how its going to destroy the game, like pokerprophecy, pokeroffice, pokertracker, this and etc etc etc.