Kill Pot

[TylerD]

$5/10 with Full Kill at the Mirage. The game is filled (and I mean filled) with locals, I'm also the youngest in the game by about 20 years. As you can imagine the game is tight, but also passive, especially post flop.

I have AcQcT4 in the BB, Kill is posted UTG. 4 callers to me and I complete for an extra $5.

Flop is AQT with 2 spades, it gets checked around. Turn is 8s. Anyone bet here? (It was checked around). River is a low card. What now?

Too passive?

[Bosyn]

I would say you have to check. You have no chance at the low and are dead to J9, KJ, AA, QQ, TT, 88. The chances of noone having one of those hands is slim

[BradleyT]

You think you're playing hold em or something?

[TylerD]

I know no-one has shown any strength so far.

[BradleyT]

You might consider betting the flop to drive out backdoor lows. On the turn you pretty much have to shut down though.

Anything above an 8 that doesn't improve you makes a straight very likely. Anything 8 or below puts a low draw out there. Any spade puts spades out there. There isn't a whole lot of turn cards you want to see besides AQT.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is AQT with 2 spades, it gets checked around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tyler - I would have bet the flop. You have flopped three pairs and by betting this flop, I think you get a better idea of what you're up against.

Opportunities often only come once in a hand, and you have to seize them when they occur.

William Shakespeare wasn't writing about poker, but he phrased the concept beautifully with:
"There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries."

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is 8s. Anyone bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. When you don't bet the flop, the opportunity is lost. Someone who might have folded a non-nut spade draw, will now probably chase with the non-nut made spade flush.

(It was checked around). River is a low card. What now?

Too late to bet. And having not bet the flop, you have no idea where you stand in the hand. I think you're forced to check. If UTG bets and everybody else folds, I'd call. For most (but not necessarily all) other choices, I'd tend to fold.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Moneyline]

I have played in this game before and IMO it's not as tight as it looks... but the players are every bit as grumpy as they look /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. On the weekends it can actually get really loose. Anyway...

5 handed I would probably play it the same way as you until the river. I would want to bet to drive out low flushes. I'm sure you would have heard from a straight or a high flush by now, but a low flush might be lurking around that you would want to drive out.

[Moneyline]

After reading Buzz's post I think he's right that a bet is best on the flop... You'll get the backdoor lows and other wacky draws out by betting.

[BradleyT]

What about my post? I said it first /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Moneyline]

Yes, but Buzz was much more eloquent... and I read his post first. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Buzz]

Brad - You did say it first. And I read your reply before making mine.

But my first thought upon reading Tyler's post, and before reading yours, was that he should have bet the flop. Thus we came upon the idea independently.

I considered seconding your post, but had already more or less decided to reply directly to Tyler's, and had my response half formulated in my mind.

There was a recent post, probably on the other games forum, regarding how to play flopped two pairs. I didn't reply to that post because the topic is such a broad one. There are top two, top and bottom two, and bottom two. Then within each of these categories there are subdivisions. For example, top two when you are in middle position and have limped with
K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and the flop is
K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
is obviously quite different from top two when you have checked from the unraised big blind with
Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the flop is
8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I think in a full loose game, you play flopped two pairs primarily as a drawing hand. You're drawing for a full house or quads. Hopefully, you have other draws as well.

In addition to the differences in cards, differences in position and opponents are important.

For example, where the game is usually very loose before the flop but then usually very tight after the flop, you can sometimes drop most of your opponents with a bet, especially from early position. And if that's the case, then I think you generally play your flopped top two pairs fast, rather than as a drawing hand.

In Tyler's post, there are three flopped pairs, which is obviously better than two flopped pairs, because he has six outs instead of four. In addition, there is only one low card (the ace) on the flop. Depending a bit on the exact cards involved, savvy Omaha-8 opponents probably won't draw to low with only one low card on the flop - and savvy Omaha-8 opponents probably won't draw to a flush without the nut flush draw. Finally, savvy Omaha-8 opponents probably won't draw to a full house with flopped bottom set, depending, and maybe not with flopped middle set, depending.

I've played in that $5-$10 game at the Mirage myself. As I recall, the players seemed to mostly be local regulars who probably play almost daily. (They seemed to know each other and that was my impression at the time).

There are no guarantees in Omaha-8, but if you have opponents who know the game, as sounds like the case here, I think it behooves you to play your flopped three pairs (with only one low card) fast. And in that case, damn the simulations, two pairs on the river (if it even goes that far) may not be such a bad hand.

In this particular case, with a flop of AQT, the immediate danger is that an opponent may hold KJXX. Actually, when you bet from the big blind, I think you're representing KJXX.

How often will an opponent be dealt two specific ranks of cards when you have no cards of either rank?

In a ten handed game, I think it's more likely than not, by probably about 55/45, something like that. (In a nine handed game, I think it's closer to 51/49 or 50/50). Doesn't matter what the exact liklihood is, just that it's roughly a coin flip.

If the table is tight pre-flop, then everybody who gets dealt KJXX won't see the flop. In a live game, after a flop of AQT, sometimes you can pick up a tell from an unsophisticated opponent who folded KJXX, (but that doesn't guarantee another player at the table wasn't also dealt KJXX).

At any rate, when you bet a flop of AQT into a family pot at a full table, without either a king or a jack in your own hand, about half the time you'll run up against at least one Broadway. To a savvy opponent, assuming you have some credibility (and maybe even if you don't), your bet should look a lot as though you very well might have the Broadway yourself. Note that it's six or seven times more likely, something like that, an opponent has an exact two ranks of cards in Omaha-8 than in Texas hold 'em. (Over six times as likely because an opponent could have KKJX, KJJX, or KKJJ as well as just KJXX).

So you bet, not so much to chase out the low draws as to see what happens after you bet. Will someone raise? If so, what does that mean? Will someone call? If so, what does that mean? The answers to these questions (and others) depend on your opponents and your interaction with them. You make the bet as the first step in figuring out the puzzle.

That's how I see it.

Buzz

[BradleyT]

You want to dodge 4 kings, 4 jacks, 4 nines, 4 eights, 5 spades twice.

Of course you have some fold equity when you bet out and no one calls, as long as that happens 1/5 times you gain. And of course you'll fill up on your 6 outs about 1/4th of the time too.

So betting out isn't out of the question, I just don't think it makes a lot of difference either way.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to dodge 4 kings, 4 jacks, 4 nines, 4 eights, 5 spades twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bradley - Interesting way to look at it. However, an ace high straight (a Broadway) is already possible - and at a loose nine or ten player table is roughly a coin flip. In other words, you should expect that about half the time an opponent will already have an ace high straight.

[ QUOTE ]
So betting out isn't out of the question, I just don't think it makes a lot of difference either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting makes a huge difference. Many opponents who need kings, jacks, nines or eights (except spades) will fold to a bet - and many opponents with less than the nut spade flush draw will also fold. In addition, many opponents with back-door low draws will fold to a bet.

However, betting shouldn't realistically get rid of anybody who already has (1) the ace high straight, (2) the top set, or probably (3) the nut flush draw.

Depends somewhat on your opponents, but in the simplest sense, you bet just to find out if any of the locals in that $5-$10 game at the Mirage holds one of those three types of hands.

Sometimes your opponents will fool you, but those who know the game will generally get out of the way to a bet without one of the afore mentioned hands. There are a few other possibilities especially if the person betting is clueless or given to excessive bluffing.

But without betting, and if nobody else bets, the range of hands UTG, for example, could hold is greatly expanded. UTG might have a baby spade flush draw, a hand UTG might well have folded to a bet - but without the bet, UTG still is playing the baby flush draw. Or UTG might have a hand that needs a king, jack, nine, or eight. Or UTG might have something else. Without the bet, you can't tell.

You can't tell what fools, or clueless opponents (Mr. Magoos) have if you do bet. And there might be a couple of those in that $5-$10 game at the Mirage. But some, if not most, of those locals play Omaha-8 almost every day, and for hours per session. For the most part they know the game.

Buzz

[TylerD]

In retrospect I agree with betting out and I would have definately done so if my position was better. I agree about the turn and river as well. Basically I squandered my opportunity on the flop.

It got checked around on the river and as the dealer split the pot (I got the high) he said "Who didn't bet there hand then?" "Me."

[chaos]

You could have replied,
"Who's not getting a tip for commenting on my play while in the box?"

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
You could have replied,
"Who's not getting a tip for commenting on my play while in the box?"

[/ QUOTE ]

nh sir.

[obi---one]

Bet the flop, most people will fear the nuts, if you are raised you are losing. take one off and fold if no improvement. better to fold small flushes and even ten ten with these tight ass vegas nut pedalers. oh yeah i fold the river if played like you did