Bad play or bad luck? Three hand analysis within 8 hands of each other [Archive]

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cigarzfan

02-20-2005, 01:11 PM

Hand 1:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO caps, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (32 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (8 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (22 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (27 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 31 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Kc Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
UTG has 8h Jh (one pair, jacks).
MP1 has 5d 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: MP1 wins 31 BB. 

Five hands later... (Hand Two)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs Kh (one pair, kings).
CO has Ac Qc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: CO wins 10 BB. 

Three hands later... (Hand Three)

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (13 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds.

River: (12 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG+2 caps, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has 9c Kc (flush, king high).
MP3 has Ac 3c (flush, ace high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 21 BB.

memphis57

02-20-2005, 01:30 PM

I don't see any major problems, this is just chumming the fishes. They wouldn't play that way if they didn't win some of the time. Play those hands the same way 100 times each and you'll win a lot of money.

On hand 2, I might raise KQ preflop, but that makes no difference here as AQs isn't going to fold.

On hand 3, I might check/call the river when the 3-flush came out to save one BB (or check/fold in this case when they start raising each other). But when he doesn't have the flush you'll lose one BB often enough that it's probably a wash over the long run.

I think your main problem is you forgot to sacrifice a chicken to the poker gods this week, to have 3 hands like that come up in 8 deals.

VTDuffman

02-20-2005, 01:46 PM

The only problem I can see is that you bet with made draws on the river...

Except for that first hand, I don't know what that guy with the set of 5s was thinking. The second hand, it's obvious that someone was comming along to the ride. I usually check/call here, because he's probably not going to call a bet with a weaker hand, but he will raise you with the made draw. Ditto when the flush card comes out against that 3rd hand, someone's drawing there...you have to check that river.

GrunchCan

02-20-2005, 02:08 PM

Hand 2, raise pf. Openlimping is pretty bad.

Otherwise, if these hands get to you, you may need to work on your suceptibility to going on tilt. This is going to happen in poker. You have to be able to take it.

cigarzfan

02-20-2005, 02:29 PM

Thanks for ideas on river bets. I believe you all are right. With made hands, I'll check river.

Believe me, I wish I knew what I could do to turn my luck around. Unfortunately I have very very bad luck at tables. Fish routinely hit their river cards against me. It's most frustrating when they do it heads up with odds stacked against them.

Honestly, I don't know what to do. I win with AA only about 60% of time. My four flush flops hit about 1 in 5 times vs. mathematical 1 in 1.9. My pocket pairs hit 1 in about 15 vs. mathematical 1 in 9. This is over 20K hands.

This is why I'm posting hands to see what else I can do.

cigarzfan

02-20-2005, 02:31 PM

I don't really go on tilt. I play hands same whether going bad or running good.

After these hands, I left the table to take some time to myself.

btspider

02-20-2005, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really go on tilt. I play hands same whether going bad or running good.

After these hands, I left the table to take some time to myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh, that's tilty. if its a profitable table and you want to play, the beats shouldn't make you want to leave.

that openlimp of KQ is horrendous.

GrunchCan

02-20-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I win with AA only about 60% of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what's the problem? If your AA wins 60% of all multiway pots, I'd say your'e running hot.

GrunchCan

02-20-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if its a profitable table and you want to play, the beats shouldn't make you want to leave.

[/ QUOTE ]

They should make you want to stay!

topspin

02-20-2005, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only problem I can see is that you bet with made draws on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

To check the river in any of these hands instead of betting would be horrible. Especially hand 3 if you're not betting because you fear a runner-runner flush.

hate

02-20-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only problem I can see is that you bet with made draws on the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely disagree with this on hand 3. This is the foundation of weak-tight right there, and I have to admit, I've fallen into the same trap more often than not at 1/2 ring because bad suckouts have been hitting me. Seeing a backdoor flush as a draw and then meekly playing it when it runner runners is why you don't get the full value from hands. You play strongly when it makes sense, and as often as possible. This is an easy bet and call 1 back. Stop playing so goddamn meekly.

chunk

02-20-2005, 04:52 PM

This is good luck.

32sb preflop to your AA.
Back door straight chasers.
Back door flush chasers.

allow your bankroll to worry about the swings and be thankful when these situations arise.
+EV is always +EV, no matter what happens on the turn/river.

3 in a row sucks, but worse happens.

DeathDonkey

02-20-2005, 05:07 PM

Noooooo. Bet those rivers. Yeah, the openlimp with KQo is just painful. I win AA almost 70% of the time so yeah, that sucks a little. But I don't know how your calculating your hitting a flush when you flop a 4 flush because just roughly guessing, the level of difference between your claimed results and the expected results is big. I think your calculating this wrong somewhere.

Just noticed you said four flush flops hit about 1/5 vs 1 in 1.9. Its not 1 in 1.9, its 1.9:1, which is 1/2.9.

Besides the bad limp in hand 2, these are not the type of hands you want to post. Just because you lose a hand does not mean you played it wrong!!! I bet if I looked at 20 hands you took a flop with in a row I would find multiple mistakes, even when you win. Try to find hands where the decisions were tough, not where you lost on the river.

-DeathDonkey

Shillx

02-20-2005, 05:12 PM

I'm pretty sure that hands like #1 are the worst for the tilt factor. The ones where you get sucked out on, whatever. When you fully believe that your hand is good and that you are going to drag a huge pot only to see that someone with a monster underplayed his hand is the most frustrating thing imo. I just seem to goto into shock when it happens.

Brad

DMBFan23

02-20-2005, 05:26 PM

I'd rather raise the turn than the flop in hand 1.

DeathDonkey

02-20-2005, 05:27 PM

When this happens to me live I am speechless for like the next 5 hands. I know exactly what you mean. You are mentally stacking your chips and whoops what happened here??

-DeathDonkey

HollywoodDB

02-20-2005, 05:52 PM

I don't know much. But, I do know you are very LUCKY the guy with the 5's doesn't like to bet his sets.