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View Full Version : ok to fold this turn with an overpair?


Fat_Cat
02-20-2005, 08:15 AM
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Am I leaving cash on the table here? I figured there was a probability he was raising a flushdraw on the flop, but with the turn checkraise, I'm often drawing to 2 outs. No? Am I weak tight in this spot?

memphis57
02-20-2005, 09:52 AM
Do you have a read on UTG? Without a very stong read, I think you have to call down. Only 2 more bets lets you see a decision at over 5:1 odds, which means you'd have to be more than 83% sure here that you're going to lose. Without a read I'd put it at 50-50 at best.

Also, you got slightly more than 2 outs, just to be tchnical. If he's got a set of 2s or 3s and another 9 hits the board, you win the hand. I guess that's worth like 0.03 extra outs /images/graemlins/smile.gif