Protecting a second best hand... why?

[SlantNGo]

This is one concept I struggled with while reading SSH. I'm generalizing here, but in many situations, with a marginal hand and a large pot, and a likely raiser to your left, you should bet out, hoping the guy to your left raises, in order to fold hands that were getting correct odds to call a single bet.

I understand doing this with a strong hand likely to be best, but my initial impression about doing this with a marginal hand was... if I don't have the best hand, why am I trying to fold out others to go heads up vs. a better hand? The best hand's equity jumps much more than my hand's, so isn't this -EV?

Now in the middle of reading TOP and I'm thinking that you're making a -EV move from a present standpoint (i.e. not considering the size of the pot) in order to increase our pot equity. When our absolute equity gain is greater than the present EV loss, protecting our possibly second-best hand is +EV. Is this reasoning correct?

[Shillx]

Let's say for example that you have AJ UTG and raise. 4 people coldcall and the BB makes it 3-bets. Everyone calls and you take a look at a J62 flop. The BB bets out, should you raise? Well the answer is usually yes but not always.

If the PF3-bettor will only bet hands that beat yours on the flop, you should just call. If he will bet no matter what, you should raise. So the idea behind protecting a 2nd best hand is that you sometimes might have the best hand too. If you know that your hand isn't good, there is little value to raising unless you might be able to knock out another hand that could beat you if you overtake the PFR. For example...

Let's say that you have JT and the PFR shows you that he has KK. If the flop comes J92 it might be correct to raise. Let's say that someone behind you shows you that she is holding 87. In this spot, you get 3 more outs when you raise, so you should raise if buying those 3 outs is worth putting in extra bets. So the moral of the story is...buying outs in big pots is key because spending a bet now is worth it if your EV goes up by 3 bets. Buying extra outs in small points is for the most part pointless. The money you invest trying to increase your equity costs you more then you make up.

Brad

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say for example that you have AJ UTG and raise. 4 people coldcall and the BB makes it 3-bets. Everyone calls and you take a look at a J62 flop. The BB bets out, should you raise? Well the answer is usually yes but not always.

If the PF3-bettor will only bet hands that beat yours on the flop, you should just call. If he will bet no matter what, you should raise. So the idea behind protecting a 2nd best hand is that you sometimes might have the best hand too. If you know that your hand isn't good, there is little value to raising unless you might be able to knock out another hand that could beat you if you overtake the PFR. For example...

Let's say that you have JT and the PFR shows you that he has KK. If the flop comes J92 it might be correct to raise. Let's say that someone behind you shows you that she is holding 87. In this spot, you get 3 more outs when you raise, so you should raise if buying those 3 outs is worth putting in extra bets. So the moral of the story is...buying outs in big pots is key because spending a bet now is worth it if your EV goes up by 3 bets. Buying extra outs in small points is for the most part pointless. The money you invest trying to increase your equity costs you more then you make up.

Brad

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what he said

[SlantNGo]

So in your second example, you need a very good read to know that you will buy yourself extra outs... so generally, don't do it and play it as a drawing hand? I realize that with overcards it's quite important... i.e. if you have AK, it's quite likely someone has K2 or A2, and you might be able to fold them and buy yourself 2 more outs.

[toss]

Where can I buy your book? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[tytygoodnuts]

No, you don't need a great read at all. If you have TPTK you should raise just to protect your hand from everyone else and a lot of the time you will have the bettor beat too.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
So in your second example, you need a very good read to know that you will buy yourself extra outs... so generally, don't do it and play it as a drawing hand? I realize that with overcards it's quite important... i.e. if you have AK, it's quite likely someone has K2 or A2, and you might be able to fold them and buy yourself 2 more outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you buy 2 outs you're buying ~8% of the pot (assuming you'll go to the river). So by investing 1 extra SB in a pot of 15SB (on the flop) you're buying 1.2SB (0.08*15). Since there will be more money in the pot on the river you're buying more than that, though. That's +EV. But sometimes the outs you thought you were buying are not good and sometimes you'll fail because the hands you wanted to fold didn't. And sometimes you'll be reraised and end up paying 2SB or more.

To me it seems that the pot have to be awfully big to make buying outs correct. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[SlantNGo]

Of course you always protect your hand when it's strong and the pot is big. But when it's marginal and your hand is quite possibly second best... that's when I think you need an accurate read to know that protecting buys you extra outs.

[ QUOTE ]
No, you don't need a great read at all. If you have TPTK you should raise just to protect your hand from everyone else and a lot of the time you will have the bettor beat too.

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[SlantNGo]

Isn't it possible that protecting a second-best hand can be +EV even if it doesn't buy you any additional outs? i.e. say that villain holds bottom 26 on a J92 flop, Hero holds AJ, and you know the other villian holds KK. That 26 has 5 outs to outdraw Hero (call it ~18% equity). By folding him, that 18% equity is split up between the other villian and Hero. Other villian, being ahead, probably takes 75% of that, i.e a 14% jump in equity, and Hero takes a 4% jump in equity.

Assuming that you know you're behind, is it possible that this jump in equity alone, although not buying you any outs, but getting rid of an opponent with outs, can make protecting with the second-best hand +EV? Or is the necessary pot size too big for this to be reasonable?

[toss]

Sometimes raising to buy outs yield a seemingly miniscule increase in your chance of winning, but its important in the long run. Thats why we have to push our hands aggressively in the right places.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that you know you're behind, is it possible that this jump in equity alone, although not buying you any outs, but getting rid of an opponent with outs, can make protecting with the second-best hand +EV? Or is the necessary pot size too big for this to be reasonable?

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How often will you outdraw the K's at the same time 62 does it? Only on very rare occassions. If you hit a J on the turn, 62 will have no redraws. If you hit an A, 62 will only have 2 outs. By raising with the 2nd best hand here you're only helping the K's, 62 isn't a threat to you.

[Shillx]

This is incorrect. In the example you gave, the hero's equity jumps by about .7% if someone folds 62. We want to keep him in the pot if we know we are behind. The only way he can be a threat is if the turn/river come running A and 2. This way we will outdraw the guy with KK but the guy with 62 will make trips to outdraw us. This will happen exactly .7% of the time. Keep him around to pad the pot.

Brad