A3s hand, or how I learned to stop worrying and love the suckout

[Harv72b]

The table in general is playing very tight, after losing our fish about an orbit and a half prior. I'm sticking it out to cover the last few hands to my goal for the night when this one comes along. I've only got a few hands on CO but he has seemed like a solid player.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: 9.66 BB, between CO and Hero.</font>

Comments on all streets are welcome, including PF. This is not a normal steal attempt for me, but given the way the table had been playing it seemed worth a shot. After the 3-bet I almost just folded right there, but decided to see if I could flop a couple spades first...am I better off just folding here after my steal attempt fizzles?

[The-Matador]

This hand is profoundly uninteresting.

You flopped a nut flush. Want a cookie?

[Harv72b]

I thought you morphed into a professional wrestler? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nick C]

Preflop, CO could be 3-betting a little light, if he suspects a semi-steal, but I think most likely you're up against a better ace or a pair. Still, I would call that 3-bet, getting 6:1.

I don't know what to make of CO's flop check. I would suspect he flopped a monster, and maybe he does in fact have a set, but maybe in fact he has something like J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif and figures he's probably drawing. Or maybe he has a set and is either slowplaying, figuring you probably don't have a spade, or is waiting for a non-spade turn before springing into action (edit: which I guess he could also be doing with something like, say, AKo).

Anyway, I wonder if leading the flop or leading the turn, hoping to get raised, would be good.

But you did win a decent pot with the approach you took.

[The-Matador]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought you morphed into a professional wrestler? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

What?

No, I've been many things, but not a pro wrassler.

[Reef]

no way can you even think about folding preflop getting better than 4 1/2 to 1.

[Wired Jokers]

When first in, raising A,3 suited two off the button in a tight game should be standard. Folding to a three-bet would be atrocious.

I would have bet the turn, hoping CO raises.

Otherwise, this hand plays itself.

[nothumb]

Against a solid and pretty aggressive player, I might bet the flop and go for a turn checkraise. But I think you played it fine.

NT

[sthief09]

how'd you know it was a wrassler and not a wrestler if you have no idea what he's talking about?

[sthief09]

what are you putting him on after he checks through the flop? it seems that he's not very interested in the hand. he's probably not slowplaying, because that's not a good slowplaying board if you don't have the nuts, and it's safe to say he didn't flop the nuts. so I think way too often he's going to fold to your check-raise. it seems you got pretty lucky here, as he probably didn't believe you, or maybe he had JT. So if I'm right, what's logically the best way to get the most money from this guy? IMO it's check calling the turn and betting the river. your bet looks like BS and he should be calling with a wide range of hands. also, if he caught something, like red JT for a straight, there's a good chance he'll raise you, a lot better than if you check-raise. that lets you gain a bet.

stuff like this is why shorthanded play is fun. you get to be creative

[sthief09]

and you shouldn't fold preflop after open raising so close to the button. occasionally, I will fold an EP raise against the right player (ex, I raised K8o from MP at a really tight live table the other day, a really passive guy 3-bet me, and I just mucked). it's not like this guy's range is AA-QQ and AK. against a LP raise, it's much wider. getting over 6-1 for 3 cards and a sooted and kinda connected hand with an A is an easy call. it's a crappy situation but it's so cheap to see a flop

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]

I would have bet the turn, hoping CO raises.


[/ QUOTE ]

when he checks the flop on a 3-flush (ie scary) board and you know he doesn't have the nuts, what makes you think he'll raise the turn?

[krishanleong]

Postflop play here is really really bad. I think you need to bet the flop here. But since you didn't on to the turn.

Why are you cring the turn? Most of the time, this turn bet will be a stab and he will fold instantly. It screams a monster. You might actually get a set to clam up here with that move.

You need to lead the turn. Leading the turn doesn't look like anything. He may raise with A-high, AK, a naked spade. And then you can 3-bet. Most people won't fold on a street if they have already put two bets in. If he had a set you missed at least 1.5 BB.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

I think he'll raise the turn also. A turn lead looks like a stab. He might slowplay TPTK this way to make sure another spade doesn't fall on the turn. It's kinda like waiting until the turn to raise except this would be a horrible misapplication.

If you don't lead the turn, your line of check-call bet is the best.

Krishan

[sthief09]

betting the turn is also an option, but I think pretty damn often he's done with this hand on the flop, and I'd like to coax him into taking a stab on the turn. if he wants to raise, he can still do it on the river when you bet. sometimes you lose a bet when it's a /images/graemlins/spade.gif but that's only about 1 in 6 times. I think getting him to take a stab with a hand he otherwise would've folded outweighs that.

I'm really having a hard time putting him on a hand. if he completely missed the flop, he should've bet. he doesn't have the nuts, and it's a scary board for a set or smaller flush to slowplay on. it seems like he has a weak draw that he wants to see through. maybe AT or JT with no spades. if he has JT his turn play makes sense. JJ or TT also makes a bit of sense.

[krishanleong]

I'll play top set like this and if the board didn't have straight possiblities I'd play AK no spade like this.

Krishan

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll play top set like this and if the board didn't have straight possiblities I'd play AK no spade like this.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


that's pretty obviously a bad way to play that hand. if he has a small spade, make him make a mistake by folding. if he won't fold, at least don't give him a free card. those hands are vulnerable. giving a free card in that spot is incredibly stupid

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

that's pretty obviously a bad way to play that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just nonstandard.

Assumptions:

He won't fold a small spade.
He'll stab with a spade on the turn if I show weakness on the flop.
70% he stab with a spade. 30% I'll have him drawing near dead.

Checking the flop and raising the turn extracts the most from naked spades and induces bluffs from hands drawing dead.

If the assumption that a player will NEVER fold a spade, I think my play is pretty sound.

Krishan

[me454555]

How bout betting out on the turn? He's almost gotta call b/c he showed so much weakness on the flop and he's telling you hes got a decent hand by the pf 3 bet. You might even get raise if you bet into him on the turn.

[sthief09]

regardless of whether he "would" call, giving laying him 7-1 is a lot better than laying him 7-0. there is definitely a small chance the PFR will fold a small spade with a K and Q on the board. you have to bet there

[krishanleong]

Who cares if I'm give him 7-0 if I plan on ravaging his predictable butt on the turn? Bayesian my line and your line. See how much we win/lose if a spade comes on the turn, spade comes on the river, no spade comes.

If you are arguing that someone will fold a small spade, I accept that argument. I'm not sure if they will or not since I don't get to see mucked hands. But if you operate under the assumption that they won't fold a spade, I like my line.

Krishan

[Harv72b]

As soon as I posted this hand, I saw the way I should have played it:

Bet the flop and call a raise. If he raises the flop, check/raise the turn; if he calls the flop bet, bet the turn &amp; hope I get a chance to 3-bet.

CO showed KK for the flopped top set, so as usual, all my slowplay did was cost me bets. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Nate tha' Great]

He wants me to bet into him on the turn so that's what I'd do.

The only players who check this flop with any regularity are super weak-tighties and super thinking LAGs. The LAG will check because he figures that he'll have about the same folding equity on the turn as he would on the flop (i.e. you think he's representing a monster and you check it to him twice) but if you have a hand that you like reasonably well it might behoove him to try and get to showdown cheaply from the flop onward.

Neither of these player types are all that common at this limit and for most everyone else this check means they have a very strong hand - particularly here J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T: spade: or a set. It's simply not logical for most players to check this flop because it's one on which they should have fairly good folding equity even if they've missed completely - I don't think A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif calls a bet here, for example. So I go ahead and bet-3bet the turn.