my early tightening lessons continue

[morgan180]

what d'ya think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t750)
Hero (t800)
UTG (t915)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t785)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t750)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to t35</font>, MP1 calls t35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t35, CO calls t35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t25, <font color="#666666"><font color="red">hero folds</font>.

[lacky]

You are getting 10 to 1 odds to see the flop with the 13th or so best starting hand in holdem and YOU complete the the betting. For 20 chips you are guarunteed seeing the flop. I think a fold here is awful.

Steve

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 10 to 1 odds to see the flop with the 13th or so best starting hand in holdem and YOU complete the the betting. For 20 chips you are guarunteed seeing the flop. I think a fold here is awful.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was that AQo doesn't play well 5-handed out of position after the flop in the first level of a SNG.

[ZebraAss]

it does when you flop top 2

[lacky]

at those odds with no risk of further betting, see the flop. If it's perfect, AQQ, QQ10, AQ5, Q72, you can check raise, if you dont like it you can check and fold.

[Mikey2k4]

Just don't get married to it. AQo is a good hand - pre-flop against a few players.

What if it's checked to you and the flop is all rags? You may be able to take the pot right there. Although actually an Axx flop has a better chance of winning it for you.

Also, you might hit your miracle KJT flop and take out guys right then and there. For 35, you shouldn't throw away your solid hands. And what's this about not having position?

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
And what's this about not having position?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in the BB.

[Bigwig]

I think folding for this much is bad. That's what I think.

[Insty]

Good fold. There will be plenty of better spots to get your money in.

To all those who think wasting 20 on this hand is good, why not just push and win it all now?

[SuitedSixes]

Agreed. Good fold.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold. There will be plenty of better spots to get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think calling for 1/40 of your stack can really be called getting your money in. Will there be a better use for those 20 chips than getting 9 to 1 odds closing the betting with a hand like AQ?

[ QUOTE ]
To all those who think wasting 20 on this hand is good, why not just push and win it all now?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what this means. How is pushing anything like calling for 20 chips? How are you wasting chips? are you wasting chips when you call on the button with a small pair after a few people have limped in? Risking small portions of your stack due to favorable pot odds is not wasting anything.

If you're not comfortable playing this hand post-flop, you can play it as you would a speculative hand, continuing only if you flop a monster.

This is not the same as limping with any two cards trying to flop two pair. You are closing the action, you've got great pot odds, and most likely excellent implied odds given the action before you. You're not playing AQ for it's hand value here (and you shouldn't, because it's probably not the best hand out there in this situation). Think of the hands you're likely to be against, and think of the flops you'd like to see. The 1 time out of 20 that the flop hits you really hard, you are probably taking someone's stack. When you do flop a monster, you only need to get 200 more chips to make it a positive play.


Playing tight early is smart, but not to the point where you're shying away from +EV situations that require little investment. Folding here is almost certainly throwing away chips in the long run.

Regards,
Steve

[tomdemaine]

Although when you do flop top two pair you run into a lot of trouble against one of the other guys pair of queens. Then that 20 chips has cost you your whole stack or most of it.

[lacky]

So how is doing nothing till the blind are 100 and you push your last 800 chips with 99 a sure thing? If you are looking for sure things deposit in a bank because poker doesn't offer any. You take chances when the odds are in your favor, thats all you can do. If you avoid the situations that are in your favor in the first 3 rounds you are missing lots of opertunities.

Steve

[ChrisV]

Call. Your odds are gigantic.

Be inclined to check/fold non ideal flops - e.g. Axx, Qxx. You are playing here largely for the potential of a flop like AQx or QQx. Sometimes you will be able to contest the pot on an Axx or Qxx flop, but if you have a bad feeling about it, don't be afraid to fold.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Although when you do flop top two pair you run into a lot of trouble against one of the other guys pair of queens. Then that 20 chips has cost you your whole stack or most of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but if someone does have pocket queens or pocket aces, the odds of the case card and your other pair card hitting the flop are extremely low. When it does happen it's a trainwreck but you can't play fearing that a freak situation like that is going to occur. If you flop top two pair or better, you're ahead the vast majority of the time.

Regards,
Steve

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Although when you do flop top two pair you run into a lot of trouble against one of the other guys pair of queens. Then that 20 chips has cost you your whole stack or most of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1325:1

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Although when you do flop top two pair you run into a lot of trouble against one of the other guys pair of queens. Then that 20 chips has cost you your whole stack or most of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1325:1

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding, talk about Monsters under the bed Syndrome.

[hyde]

Dear gnat's ass, /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
I'd take a look. And I'm a bit of a GA myself.

fwiw

[MarkL444]

IMO, whether or not you should call this bet depends on how capable you are from getting away from an ace on the flop.

[lorinda]

IMO, whether or not you should call this bet depends on how capable you are from getting away from an ace on the flop.

I agree with this entirely.

Lori

[gr8vertical]

I'll call 20 more everytime with that hand and see a flop. But then again, I think I could toss it even if I hit the flop somehow if I sensed I was losing...

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]

This is not the same as limping with any two cards trying to flop two pair. You are closing the action, you've got great pot odds, and most likely excellent implied odds given the action before you. You're not playing AQ for it's hand value here (and you shouldn't, because it's probably not the best hand out there in this situation). Think of the hands you're likely to be against, and think of the flops you'd like to see. The 1 time out of 20 that the flop hits you really hard, you are probably taking someone's stack. When you do flop a monster, you only need to get 200 more chips to make it a positive play.


[/ QUOTE ]

What flop are you going to be happy seeing here?
Now calculate the odds of those flops occuring. I'm sure you'll find it's much more than 1 in 20.
How is this any different from playing any two and hoping to flop a monster?

[ QUOTE ]

Playing tight early is smart, but not to the point where you're shying away from +EV situations that require little investment. Folding here is almost certainly throwing away chips in the long run.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but I don't think this is one of those spots. I think you are going to have to lay this hand down far more often than you seem to think.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
What flop are you going to be happy seeing here?
Now calculate the odds of those flops occuring. I'm sure you'll find it's much more than 1 in 20.
How is this any different from playing any two and hoping to flop a monster?

[/ QUOTE ]

A)Sometimes a lone ace or a lone Q will be enough, and a decent player can tell when that will be (ie, you autocheck any flop and CR only if you smell weakness);

B)Calling any two means you need to hit 2 pair when the other guy hits an ace or has an overpair, where AK and sometimes Ax will still give you their stack if you flop 2 pair+;

C)With the effective position I have here I would call any suited two gapper or better in this spot.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was that AQo doesn't play well 5-handed out of position after the flop in the first level of a SNG.

[/ QUOTE ]

That hand plays fine.

The real question is how does the person connected to that hand play.

[DrPhysic]

Morgan,
Lacky is exactly right. You have the pot odds to call this.

AQ is a power hand. It is not a monster. The test of this hand is not can you play it pre-flop. The test is whether you play well enough post flop to handle it. You have to carefully evaluate the betting and odds post flop and be able to press when ahead or dump it when losing.

Doc

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Your odds are gigantic.

Be inclined to check/fold non ideal flops - e.g. Axx, Qxx. You are playing here largely for the potential of a flop like AQx or QQx. Sometimes you will be able to contest the pot on an Axx or Qxx flop, but if you have a bad feeling about it, don't be afraid to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone Smart said something to the effect of, "Pot odds are like filters on cigarettes. They just provide justification for people to do things that they know are bad for them."

If Axx and Qxx are non-ideal flops, then this is exactly why this hand needs to be thrown away. If you are advocating holding on for an AQx, QQx or KJT, then why not play 85 against a raise, out of position and hope for a 85x, 885, or 967 flop?

With AQo you are going to:
Flop 4 aces or 4 queens .01% of the time
Flop a full house .09% of the time
Flop three to the flush 4.38% of the time
Flop a straight of KJT .32% of the time
Flop a three of a kind 1.35% of the time
Flop two pair 2.02% of the time.

But flop the non-ideal Axx or Qxx 32.43% of the time.

Muck it.

[microbet]

It's a marginal hand, because I fold Ace Ten for sure and probably Ace Jack offsuit, but I won't fold Ace Queen here until I can figure out how to get dealt AA, KK or AK a little more often.

[DaffyDuck]

[ QUOTE ]

With AQo you are going to:
Flop 4 aces or 4 queens .01% of the time
Flop a full house .09% of the time
Flop three to the flush 4.38% of the time
Flop a straight of KJT .32% of the time
Flop a three of a kind 1.35% of the time
Flop two pair 2.02% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

These add up to 8.17%. So you're 12:1 assuming you fold everything but these hands. Sprinkle in the occasional Axx, Qxx flop that works for you and your odds keep going down.

He is betting 20 to win 190. So he is gettin 9.5 to 1 without considering any implied odds.

He's closing the betting.

This call is a no brainer (unless I reraise /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

Bob

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

With AQo you are going to:
Flop 4 aces or 4 queens .01% of the time
Flop a full house .09% of the time
Flop three to the flush 4.38% of the time
Flop a straight of KJT .32% of the time
Flop a three of a kind 1.35% of the time
Flop two pair 2.02% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

These add up to 8.17%. So you're 12:1 assuming you fold everything but these hands. Sprinkle in the occasional Axx, Qxx flop that works for you and your odds keep going down.

He is betting 20 to win 190. So he is gettin 9.5 to 1 without considering any implied odds.

He's closing the betting.

This call is a no brainer (unless I reraise /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

Bob

[/ QUOTE ]

Of those 8.17%, how many is he behind AA, AK, KK, QQ or a made set? All of which are very likely coming from a pre-flop raiser. Your best hope is that he's raising with KQ.

[onthebutton]

You are essentially folding AQo here to a one bet raise.

A one bet raise.

I'd think about reraising here. How can you put anyone else on a big pair with only a one bet raise in front of you? Against a small pair, you are in a race and have to see the flop.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Of those 8.17%, how many is he behind AA, AK, KK, QQ or a made set? All of which are very likely coming from a pre-flop raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hardly ever. Those hands are incredibly unlikely, even from a preflop raiser, on the kind of flops I'm after. I'm not sure I count three to the flush as a desired flop, by the way.

With direct odds it's almost worth it given the potential of Axx and Qxx flops. Implied odds are gigantic. Folding here implies an unhealthy wish to avoid postflop confrontation.

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd think about reraising here.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't think I'm reraising AQo from the big blind. I think the main reason I fold is I have position RIGHT NOW, but after the flop I'll be FIRST TO ACT on every betting round.

SO lets say I call...

The board comes Qxx, my action?
The board comes Axx, my action?
The board comes xxx, my action?

And the pot is sizeable now - so any bet is going to be a decent chunk of my stack.

Thanks for the rigorous debate on this one - I am learning alot!

Morgan

[holeplug]

[ QUOTE ]

SO lets say I call...

The board comes Qxx, my action?
The board comes Axx, my action?
The board comes xxx, my action?



[/ QUOTE ]

Well assuming the SB checks all of these I would check and see what the betting action brings and judge from there if I think my hand is good or not.

[kmvenne]

If someone is raising or calling to 35 with a hand that has you dominated then that is sad. Axx is a nice flop. I don't see AK around raising this little or AK smooth calling this early, players online love to ram AK. Qxx isn't too bad either unless the board is ugly with QJ or QT. xxx isn't the worst too, you can act like you are a monkeyfish that hit two rags. People fear the blinds in these multiway raggy flops.

A checkraise is good if you have it big, but if you hit an A or Q, you get to lead out and can let the rest of the table let you know if you are ahead or behind. It will cost the 1/2 pot or so you lead when you find out A crap hit two pair, but when you find AJo or second pair calling you down, it allows you to continue to win chips on every street.

So the answer to your questions would be lead out on Axx, lead out on Qxx, and lead out occasionally on xxx. Check raise on AQx, or even sometimes on xyy where you can represent trip 4's because you had the odds to call with your J4s or whatever stupid pair fell. The hand is worth far more then 20 chips, make it that way.

As for myself, I might well reraise here. Screams a monster, picks up a lot of chips if your continuation bet works when you miss, and has a good chance to awakenen the monsters on the off chance they lurk. Plus you can check an A to the leftover donkeys and watch them represent it.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, whether or not you should call this bet depends on how capable you are from getting away from an ace on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a shame this response is buried so deep into the thread.

Pep.

[morgan180]

Leading out in to 3 players is probably not going to win me the pot right there, so I am definitely looking at another bet on fourth street. Plus with the pot at 165 any probe bet is going to have to be at least 90 chips which we are now looking at nearly 15% of my stack, with not too much comfort (save for the miracle flops).

I'm not being difficult, I swear, I'm just learning/analyzing.

[ChrisV]

Check. Check. Check.

You have to observe what the other players do and make a judgement about whether your hand is good enough. An xxx flop is hopeless, though.

[kmvenne]

Leading out for 90 on an Axx flop with AQ and getting called is not the worst thing that could happen. Getting raised is. Remember early players are more apt to call from behind, the sucker at the table will gladly pay more aggressive players off if you don't want his chips.

I don't see where checking gets you with a flopped hand, maybe on Qxx, but Axx is begging the preflop raiser to act, and unless you wanna checkraise that one (a marginal, not bad move), you get no information. And you'd be amazed how little most of these guys may want to do with a 853 board if you lead.

On hands like this you have to assume calling fever hit at some point and these guys are playing some insane stuff. Don't assume they all have pairs and broadway cards. A lot of these guys are gonna be drawing slim if you hit an A or Q. Plus AQ can draw, JT8 is my favorite /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]

C)With the effective position I have here I would call any suited two gapper or better in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

By "effective position" do you mean closing the action from the BB despite the fact you will have bad position on the following streets?

[sofere]

How often is QQ or AA going to raise to 35??? How often will AA just call in this multiway pot?

[Voltron87]

Folding AQ here is insane. Insane!

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding AQ here is insane. Insane!

[/ QUOTE ]

No it's not. If it was AK I'd agree with you.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Id call here but if you are a new player and uncomfortable with postflop play, its not going to kill you to fold.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]

Id call here but if you are a new player and uncomfortable with postflop play, its not going to kill you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This and the comment above about calling here being dependent on your ability to get away from an ace seem to sum it up pretty well. My only addition is that you gotta remember that early in a low stakes SNG, it's entirely possible that the raise came from somethings like ATs, and that calls came from any suited Ace or K9s+, etc. Given that, I think any non coordinated Axx or Qxx board is playable here for either a lead or C/R unless you smell monster. I've just seen too many players play AJo here like they had AK on a Axx board to want to fold...

[onthebutton]

I still have yet to see anyone explain why you think you are so far behind here. Do you think the 1 bet raise is a big pair? I can't imagine it's AA or KK. You're likely against a smaller pair, and with the overcards you have to call the ONE BET raise.

[Voltron87]

First off I have no idea what buy in this is at. But second off you are getting such good pot odds to call that it is almost a joke.

Some 2+2ers like make these extraordinary folds early pf when the pf calls are not what can hurt you, it is the poor postflop play. If you understand how to avoid playing a monster pot with this hand it is a profitable hand. You see what I mean?

[pooh74]

Axx flop is not as good as a Qxx flop just to set the record straight. First, with Qxx, you know you have the best kicker where with Axx you dont...second, Qxx leads to a less likely 2pair situation where PF calls with Ax are abundant at this level.

I am astounded by the holdouts on this debate. Id say if one folds this hand PF then why play NL at all? besides all of the ideal hands I am basically looking for Q rags much more than A rags and ready to get away from either because of that MP limp/caller who had baby pair and hits his/her set...etc...

pooh

[curtains]

Sit and gos are beatable even if you fold in this situation. (This doesnt mean that I advocate folding)

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

C)With the effective position I have here I would call any suited two gapper or better in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

By "effective position" do you mean closing the action from the BB despite the fact you will have bad position on the following streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

That, and more importantly, that the raiser is on my left and will hopefully bet most flops for me.

Also, while SNG's are beatable without knowing how to play this hand they're not beatable at higher limits, especially anywhere but Party, without knowing how to play postflop. Most of the people that advocate folding in this thread, with one or two exceptions, can't play it postflop.

[curtains]

Yeah Im referring to the lower limits.

[keikiwai]

I think you should call. If you weren't closing the action pf it would be a little more questionable imo.

A side note to people worried about playing against AA, QQ.
Why wouldn't AA or QQ have raised, unless UTG has AA or QQ? Also, you have an A and a Q, so that odds that someone else has AA or QQ is slightly diminished from the situation where you didn't have AQ. Since you're big bet, you got dealt your cards 2nd. This means that the A was out of the pack early for the 1st card dealt to you, so the others, including UTG only have 3 As to be dealt lowering their odds of AA. Then you get your Q on the second one, and if someone got a Q on their first go around, there are only 2 more Qs in the deck for them to pair up. This doesn't hold for the case of SB.

Anyway, very good hand, good pot odds, small % of your stack, chance to build a lead early, probably call.

Additionally, raising 2.x BB does not imply such a powerhouse hand from the raiser. 3, 4, or 5 BB and I would say high pocket pairs are much more likely.

my 2c

Peter. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
First off I have no idea what buy in this is at. But second off you are getting such good pot odds to call that it is almost a joke.

Some 2+2ers like make these extraordinary folds early pf when the pf calls are not what can hurt you, it is the poor postflop play. If you understand how to avoid playing a monster pot with this hand it is a profitable hand. You see what I mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Note: what I am talking about concerns lower limit SNGs.

I certainly do see what you mean. Calling can be +CEV to a good post flop player. However, there is also $EV to consider as well as the number of tables being played. Theoretically I'm fine with the claim that calling here can be +$EV, but the edge is most likely thin and not worth the trouble.

FWIW, it's not the pot odds that make calling here a good idea, IMO, it's the implied odds. The problem is that with any TPTK or TPGK type hand there are very, very poor reverse implied odds the post flop player has to deal with (especially when the flop will be played multi-handed).

I also know that I have a long ways to go with my post flop play, which helps me make this decision, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Any edge, even a thin one, is worth the trouble if you are trying to play as well as possible.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Any edge, even a thin one, is worth the trouble if you are trying to play as well as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my point is that it is *very* difficult to properly quantify whether you even have a significant $EV edge here at all in the lower limits. My guess is most players don't, especially considering how misplaying it even one time out of one hundred can completely erase any edge you may have had. Also, you can pass up edges if you will have an opportunity at a bigger edge later on.

Theoretically I'm more or less fine with your reasoning. I just don't think that it holds practically.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Was I really even really arguing anything? Anyway I understand that a lot of the people here are just trying to ensure a profit, and avoid risky situations. That's fine, and I've been in such situations many times in my life, and taken the safe reoute.

[nicholswfu]

The reason for all the debate is simple - those saying "fold" are tight players. Those saying "call or raise" are looser players. I would never fold in this situation and might even use the power of the big blind to my advantage. A raise here will worry even mildly savvy players. If the flop misses you throw it away. If a huge reraise comes in you throw it away. Its going to happen somtimes and not other times. (Its poker.) The pot odds are there. And its not like a cigarette filter(see previous post) -its logic based on math that provides an advantage in the long run. Lose a little with a call and fold but win a lot with a call and a win.

[lorinda]

A raise here will worry even mildly savvy players.

I have yet to detect the presence of such a being in the Party low limit games.

Pushing small edges is great if you want a 20% ROI.

Whether you want a 20% ROI is dependent on whether your ROI is currently 10% or 30%.

Lori

[ChipWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, whether or not you should call this bet depends on how capable you are from getting away from an ace on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if the flop comes Axx what would be the recommended postflop play?

I would lean this way
Check/Fold the following situations:
1. Bet of 1/2 pot up to T300-T400 or so. i would interpret this as somebody who wants a call.
2. Any multiway action.


Check/call:
1. Any short stack all-in representing 1/2 of my stack or less.
2. Overbet/All-in from a player that I have a strong(and I mean strong) fish read on.

Check/Raise
1. Weak minbet up to 1/3 of the pot or so. Fold to a reraise.

I'm new so this could be completely off and may illustrate exactly the type of post-flop play where you shold fold this hand.

Interested in what others have to say.

[nicholswfu]

I admit that many don't recognize the significance of position - one player commented at the table recently that position was too "subtle" to consider. (I was complementing them on their UTG raise with q,rag offsuit that went on to win - "keep that up, buddy".)
These debates are excellent and I enjoy them....however, it sometimes seem as if we debate long enough we will find the "right" answer which never loses. The closest thing to "right" would be the recognition of pot odds, which in this case he has. I say "call". People folding this are the people that I HOPE to encounter - I want my raise to have others toss the better hand away. And once I figure them out in that regard I am going to raise with a wide range of hands. Sometimes you will be burned and lose some chips. Other times you will take the pot (and sometimes take it uncontested when the raiser folds to a reraise).

[lorinda]

And once I figure them out in that regard I am going to raise with a wide range of hands

So I lose 30 chips, then I lose 50 chips, then I lose 100 chips, then I reraise you all in with rags, you fold and I pick up 600 chips.

Lori

[nicholswfu]

Needless to say its not that simple. I may call you and I may not. By that point I have enough of your chips that even if I call the all in I still have a good stack(and you went all in with rags). Even if you win, unless you radically alter your play, we will just repeat the sequence until you are out. Obviously, its very player specific. In addition, I play this way sometimes and othertimes not depending on the table. If I see someone much more aggressive than me I will often sit back and let them indimidate and knock people out and I move closer to the money by playing tight. When I finally start playing aggressively - i.e. I am close to the money and have picked up wins on the hands I played, I often get folds due to my image as a tight player(including hands like A,Q to my A,J)

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
And once I figure them out in that regard I am going to raise with a wide range of hands

So I lose 30 chips, then I lose 50 chips, then I lose 100 chips, then I reraise you all in with rags, you fold and I pick up 600 chips.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly - I fold because 90% of all of my results come with the blinds at 100 and up - and there is no need to piss away my stack in level one when even if I double up on this hand I'm not even close to guaranteed being in the money.

[nicholswfu]

You will often be folding strong hands to weaker ones - waiting on a monster. When you finally call with your kings (or even aces), you do not neccessarily win. As another point, in the long run, over thousands of hands, you will lose because the ratio of your hands greater better than A,Q in this identical situation is sure to be lower the hands A,Q equivalent or lower that were raised. thus your argument may hold true for 1 game where you finally reraise me and I fold and you get your money back - fine. But its exceedingly unlikely to work that way in the long run. Let me point out that I am also not talking about making frequent big raises on garbage.

In addition, I will raise my aces, kings etc. in a similar fashion if that is the rhythm of that game. I will not raise my aces in a way that reveals them, especially if I have been raising a variety of hands to a sufficient level. When you finally do call, sometimes you will win, other times you will call to see aces, but often you will be folding to weaker or equivalent hands. It goes back to my original point- if you fold A,Q to a medium raise you are just a tighter player than those who play it. I still argue that the pot odds are extremely important in the decision making but of course taken in context with your read on the players.

But I might add that this was a reasonable raise and not one that made you all in.

Let me stress that I am talking about low-level games - $5 or $10 SNG. People will raise those with K,8o or even worse sometimes. Its a real mix of good players and horrible players.

[nicholswfu]

After reading the original post again and thinking about our discussion - I still would call that. I wouldn't reraise it unless i knew more about the players. I just could not fold under these circumstances.
Cheers.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
Axx flop is not as good as a Qxx flop

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty common misconception that Ed Miller was kind enough to debunk for me a few months back.

Loose raiser:

Board: Ac
Hand 1: 61.0964 % [ 00.52 00.09 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 38.9036 % [ 00.30 00.09 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 58.8282 % [ 00.51 00.08 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 41.1718 % [ 00.33 00.08 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

Tight raiser:

Board: Ac
Hand 1: 51.8857 % [ 00.48 00.04 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 48.1143 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 50.3022 % [ 00.47 00.03 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 49.6978 % [ 00.47 00.03 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AQs, AKo }

[eagle]

There seems to be four conclusions that can be drawn from this thread.

1) If your playing AQ because you think it's a good hand and that "you have enough post flop skill to use the hand effectively against multiple unknown and unpredictable opponents" than play.

2) If your playing it to primarily hit QQx, AAx or a straight than the fact that it's AQ is irrelevant because you could probably play 30 - 40 % of the hands that way.

3) If your folding because you believe that letting five morons knock each other out while you wait for a better opportunity is lower variance that's okay.

4) If your folding because you do not have skill mentioned in 1) above that's okay.

So I applied this criteria to myself and came to this conclusion.

1) I'm sure right now that I do not possess the skill necessary to do this. Theoretically, I do not know if it is really possible at the low levels where you never have solid reads on the opponents.
2) I do not want to be bleeding chips like this early.
3) I accept variance for what it is and don't worry about it.
4) This is what I would do and why.

So of the four, the only one that I find flawed is number two. The other three are player dependent.


I think threads like this really help new players like myself see the concepts in relation to the mechanics which most of the time is not clear.

[SuitedSixes]

Nicely put.

[Jason Strasser]

Men are from mars, women are from venus, and some people on this forum are misapplying concepts to the nth degree. Here are some responses to some random posts.

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was that AQo doesn't play well 5-handed out of position after the flop in the first level of a SNG.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not confident in your post flop ability if you make this type of fold. That is really the bottom line. It's silly when posters say "flop is AXX you must be ready to check fold" or "you can only play QQx flops or AQx". Listen, you call preflop because you have a strong hand that is likely stronger than all the other hands with an ace or a queen in them (domination). Sure, I guess you may be up against AK or some moron slowplaying a bigger hand, but lets get real, if you know what you are doing you can make this preflop call profitable postflop, especially against clowns that are still around early in a sng.

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold. There will be plenty of better spots to get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

We all know the fish who has AJ, AT, Ax and flops top pair and cant get away from it. The chance to get in the pot with a dominating hand early getting a billion to one on your preflop call is just about as good as you are going to get.

[ QUOTE ]
Be inclined to check/fold non ideal flops - e.g. Axx, Qxx. You are playing here largely for the potential of a flop like AQx or QQx. Sometimes you will be able to contest the pot on an Axx or Qxx flop, but if you have a bad feeling about it, don't be afraid to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a forumla that I guess is a guideline for postflop? Well, I think there are way too many variables to say something like this because I sure as heck know that at this level there will be a flop like Qxx where you should be getting all your money in instantly. It obviously depends on a lot of things, thats why you play poker.

[ QUOTE ]
With AQo you are going to:
Flop 4 aces or 4 queens .01% of the time
Flop a full house .09% of the time
Flop three to the flush 4.38% of the time
Flop a straight of KJT .32% of the time
Flop a three of a kind 1.35% of the time
Flop two pair 2.02% of the time.

But flop the non-ideal Axx or Qxx 32.43% of the time.

Muck it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? How often do AA KK and QQ get played like this anyway?

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing small edges is great if you want a 20% ROI.

Whether you want a 20% ROI is dependent on whether your ROI is currently 10% or 30%.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think its safe to argue this edge is not small, and pushing it is not the difference between a 20% and 30% ROI. We are talking about 20 chips here right?

-Jason

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]
You are not confident in your post flop ability if you make this type of fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I am not confident playing this five handed from first position, which is why I chose to fold.

I feel that as a new player (I've only been playing regularly for 6 months and probably have a combined total of 300 SNGs under my belt) I would more often than not bleed chips on this if I did not hit my QXX flop.

That is definitely a short coming on my end so I choose not to play to my weakness, which I think everyone is fine with.

And I agree with your point about "is AA,QQ,KK really played that way?" Well, I have seen it often enough, but I agree, my fear was not that someone min-raised with a monster. The fear was how do I proceed against four players playing this hand from the bb in the first level of the wild west of SNGs (10+1).

I do disagree that its "only 20 chips" because it really isn't. I think a player like me that is still learning is looking more at 60-80 chips because of the uncertainty on how to handle the post-flop action, which starts to become significant, IMHO.

Thanks to all the powerhouses chiming in here, this has been a really educational thread.

I will see if I can dig up the rest of the hand, I'd be interested to see how everyone would play the rest of the streets with this hand.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Axx flop is not as good as a Qxx flop

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty common misconception that Ed Miller was kind enough to debunk for me a few months back.

Loose raiser:

Board: Ac
Hand 1: 61.0964 % [ 00.52 00.09 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 38.9036 % [ 00.30 00.09 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 58.8282 % [ 00.51 00.08 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 41.1718 % [ 00.33 00.08 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

Tight raiser:

Board: Ac
Hand 1: 51.8857 % [ 00.48 00.04 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 48.1143 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 50.3022 % [ 00.47 00.03 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 49.6978 % [ 00.47 00.03 ] { AA-QQ, AKs-AQs, AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post...but i still would disagree given the hand in this particular thread. I dont think with that many limpers and this level buy-in and BB level that that range of hands is relevant here. Your hand range for opponent is not indicative of the scenario here...however, your point is made, but again it is a narrow one...basically "AQ likes to see an A more so against a monster pocket than it like to see a Q". But your range is too narrow IMO. I think with many limpers Id feel more comfortable with a Q high flop here. Of course what makes me comfortable (cigarettes, crack, heroin /images/graemlins/wink.gif)is not always best for me so I could be wrong.

pooh

[rachelwxm]

Just curious, if we change all the chips stack into dollars and imagine we are sitting at NL ring game instead. How many people make this fold?

Sometimes I wonder if I know NL game at all.

[ddubois]

My point was not that "AQ likes to see an A more so against a monster pocket than it like to see a Q", my point is that AQ likes to see an ace more than a queen -- period. A pair of aces is, literally, better than a pair of queens. No overcards to fade, better backdoor draws, better counterfeiting possibilities, the list goes on. The only way to make Q-high flop "better" is to artificially give your opponent precisely AK, which is something you cannot legitimately do, barring some miracle read.

3,818,792 games 100.719 secs 37,915 games/sec
Board: Ac
Hand 1: 14.0546 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 13.2789 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 09.8764 % [ 00.09 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 37.6244 % [ 00.31 00.06 ] { AQo }
Hand 5: 25.1657 % [ 00.20 00.05 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

6,590,117 games 138.203 secs 47,684 games/sec
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 13.9714 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 12.6532 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 10.1067 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 36.6404 % [ 00.32 00.05 ] { AQo }
Hand 5: 26.6283 % [ 00.22 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
My point was not that "AQ likes to see an A more so against a monster pocket than it like to see a Q", my point is that AQ likes to see an ace more than a queen -- period. A pair of aces is, literally, better than a pair of queens. No overcards to fade, better backdoor draws, better counterfeiting possibilities, the list goes on. The only way to make Q-high flop "better" is to artificially give your opponent precisely AK, which is something you cannot legitimately do, barring some miracle read.

3,818,792 games 100.719 secs 37,915 games/sec
Board: Ac
Hand 1: 14.0546 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 13.2789 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 09.8764 % [ 00.09 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 37.6244 % [ 00.31 00.06 ] { AQo }
Hand 5: 25.1657 % [ 00.20 00.05 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

6,590,117 games 138.203 secs 47,684 games/sec
Board: Qc
Hand 1: 13.9714 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 12.6532 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 10.1067 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 36.6404 % [ 00.32 00.05 ] { AQo }
Hand 5: 26.6283 % [ 00.22 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

AK, but also, as i said, I feel 2 pairs are alot less likely with the Q high because AX likes to limp...maybe im overemphasizing this phenomenon, but its not that important either way...didnt mean to get bogged down in minutia.

[Scuba Chuck]

OP, I have not read any of the above thread (except one) as I am on vacation and viewing this from a 56k modem.

It is my opinion that folding here is not bad, if this is your purpose: To avoid dangerous/tricky situations in early play because it has no bearing on the ultimate success of your LT play. Specifically, folding, and not losing chips - especially if you're playing in the 800 chip starting range, ...folding is fine if you understand that middle play and bubble play is where you make your $$$.

I went through a period where I folded every single AQ I was dealt, so that I ensured I was in good position to play level 4+.

As you move on though, ChrisV's comments (below) I think are best.

"Call. Your odds are gigantic.

Be inclined to check/fold non ideal flops - e.g. Axx, Qxx. You are playing here largely for the potential of a flop like AQx or QQx. Sometimes you will be able to contest the pot on an Axx or Qxx flop, but if you have a bad feeling about it, don't be afraid to fold."