Kid Sheleen 05
02-19-2005, 11:59 PM
I ran into this situation a few times this evening. I think the same issues apply to an Ace high straight draw or any single gut shot. I am new to this and if anyone has the patience to follow my analysis and tell me if it holds water or not, I would appreciate it.
Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.
Flop: (4 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
I have broken the EV analysis into three reasonably likely scenarios to calculate implied odds: Passive (Hero check/calls), Moderate (Hero bets/BB calls), and Aggressive (Hero checks/BB raises/Hero reraises).
Passive Analysis
On the flop: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.
On the turn: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.
On the river: Hero checks, BB bets.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 2.5 BB against an expected return of 5.5BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.2:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the passive approach does not offer a positive expectancy. Hero would need 8 outs to yield a positive expectancy
Moderate Analysis
On the flop: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.
On the turn: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.
On the river: Hero bets, BB calls.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 2.5 BB against an expected return of 5.5BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.2:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the moderate approach does not offer a positive expectancy.
Aggressive analysis:
On the flop: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls.
On the turn: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.
On the river: Hero bets, BB calls.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 4 BB against an expected return of 9 BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.25:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the Aggressive approach risks more and improves the expectancy but it does not go positive.
Hidden Outs
It is entirely possible that BB has made his flush, possibly ace high, and that I am drawing dead. I cannot assume this, however, because this is micro limit poker. It is also possible that he limped in on an A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ off suit.
Although I am playing the gut shot, I might have as many as 4 additional hidden outs to improve my hand, 2 aces and 2 fives (no /images/graemlins/heart.gifs allowed), but I would have to discount these from 4 to 1 or less than that due to the foregoing risks.
Thanks to any who bothered to read this. I would appreciate any comments you might offer.
Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.
Flop: (4 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
I have broken the EV analysis into three reasonably likely scenarios to calculate implied odds: Passive (Hero check/calls), Moderate (Hero bets/BB calls), and Aggressive (Hero checks/BB raises/Hero reraises).
Passive Analysis
On the flop: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.
On the turn: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.
On the river: Hero checks, BB bets.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 2.5 BB against an expected return of 5.5BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.2:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the passive approach does not offer a positive expectancy. Hero would need 8 outs to yield a positive expectancy
Moderate Analysis
On the flop: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.
On the turn: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.
On the river: Hero bets, BB calls.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 2.5 BB against an expected return of 5.5BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.2:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the moderate approach does not offer a positive expectancy.
Aggressive analysis:
On the flop: Hero checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls.
On the turn: Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.
On the river: Hero bets, BB calls.
At the flop, Hero expects to make an additional investment of 4 BB against an expected return of 9 BB, thus yielding implied pot odds of 1.25:1. This is lower than the odds of drawing the gut shot by the river, which would be about 4.8:1. Thus, the Aggressive approach risks more and improves the expectancy but it does not go positive.
Hidden Outs
It is entirely possible that BB has made his flush, possibly ace high, and that I am drawing dead. I cannot assume this, however, because this is micro limit poker. It is also possible that he limped in on an A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ off suit.
Although I am playing the gut shot, I might have as many as 4 additional hidden outs to improve my hand, 2 aces and 2 fives (no /images/graemlins/heart.gifs allowed), but I would have to discount these from 4 to 1 or less than that due to the foregoing risks.
Thanks to any who bothered to read this. I would appreciate any comments you might offer.