Misplayed on any or every street? - 88

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

How about this one? Early in the session so no reads. I can see arguements for a different play on each street; what do you think?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Thanks for the help.

-Craig

[Grease]

PF looks fine, but if you're raising and calling down a LP or TP, that's bad. If he has aggressive tendencies, I think it's alright. It is totally player dependent. I don't like his stop-and-go. What is he betting here that you can beat?

[mdrudeen]

I am not really crazy about the flop raise. You are likely way behind here and if you do hit you are driving away all your customers.

On the turn you have to let this go. You raised the flop and the villian bet into you on the next street, with no reads what makes you think he does not have the king he is representing?

[Nick C]

Now that I've noticed that two different players bet into you postflop and have deleted my initial response, I'm going to try again.

On the flop, I would probably have folded, unless I knew UTG+2 was the "bet if checked to" type. Hands like A2 and A3 or wheel draws are possible here, as is a pocket pair like 77 or 66. But most often I think that what he'll be betting against four opponents is a king. The lack of a preflop raise does make the presence of a king somewhat less likely though, as does the two flop checks that preceded UTG+2's bet.

If you think there's a good enough chance you're ahead to stay in, though, then raising is the play, which has the advantage of possibly driving out overcards and perhaps pushing UTG+2 off a hand like TT and also maybe even pushing CO off of a weak king, in this smallish pot.

I'm not sure how to interpret UTG+1's flop bet. He did call two cold, though, and now he's betting into you, which has me concerned. You'd think the flop action with the king on the board would worry him, if he didn't have or couldn't beat top pair. But maybe he's taking a stab at the pot with something like A4 or 54. I tend to call confusing bets like the one UTG+1 makes on the turn, especially when I think the bettor would likely have gone for a checkraise with a genuine monster (and I would expect him to do that, after the flop action). But maybe I make too many calls of that sort, and one problem here is that UTG+1 doesn't actually need a monster to be beating you.

I respect the courage of your river value bet, and maybe it's good (UTG+1's river check does signal weakness), but I think I probably would have taken the free showdown instead, fearing that UTG+1 was cold-calling the flop and then betting the turn with top pair and is now once again concerned about his kicker, since you didn't fold to the turn bet.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

Nick, thanks for taking the time to write that well thought out response. Your reads were spot on. He showed K6.

I think my biggest mistake was raising the flop in such a big field. When he called 2 cold with no big draws I thought it might be a weak K. But when a blank hit on the turn and he bet out I thought he might be taking a random shot. If that's the case how about raising the turn, folding to a 3-bet and taking the free showdown on the river?

After he checked to me on the river I thought he just took a random shot and would call with a pair of one of the little cards out there. I've been trying not to miss so many valuebets ont he river but I don't know if this was the time.

-Craig

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
But when a blank hit on the turn and he bet out I thought he might be taking a random shot. If that's the case how about raising the turn, folding to a 3-bet and taking the free showdown on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I have trouble figuring out when the free showdown raise is a good play, so I don't do it very often.

Anyway, though, here are some conditions that I believe make a raise-fold line something to consider:

(1) Your opponent may have a draw that he'll call a raise with but will check-fold with on the river if he misses. I'm not sure how much that applies here, though it might if Villain holds something like A4 and is pretty certain he needs to improve to win.

(2) There is some chance of pushing Villain off of a hand that beats yours. If Villain has something like 99, then this could apply, but if he has a better pair, he did call two cold with it on the flop, so I'm not sure he's giving it up now. And I think the same is probably true of the K6 he actually had (especially since that hand picked up a gutshot on the turn, though I suspect your opponent would have called anyway.

(3) You're not too worried about getting 3-bet by a worse hand. In the posted hand, unless Villain is very aggressive, I don't think you will get 3-bet by a worse hand.

There is also some chance you'll catch a set on the river, in which case you could bet instead of checking behind, which would gain an extra bet. But the chances of catching a set are pretty slim at this point, so I don't this consideration factors in a whole lot.

With a made hand that might be best but also has a deceent chance of improving, a raise-call line if sometimes good, I think (even when your river plan is to check behind unimproved), so long as you don't really fear a 3-bet from a better hand that much, because you can check behind unimproved on the river (if Villain lets you) but bet the river instead when you do improve. On the other hand, if Villain will bet the river (if you just call the turn) even on a card that turns your hand into a monster and call a raise, then you could get your raise in on that street anyway if you improve.

The raise-call line doesn't apply in the posted hand, but I thought I'd mention it, in part because I'm trying to work out for myself when it's good to use free-showdown type raises.

And, hopefully, if I left anything significant out or got something wrong in this post, someone will correct me.

[PhatPots]

if he has a king or a queen he is going to call you. I think you should have checked that river. You lose to any hand that will call you and you will make any hand that you beat fold. Plus there is always the chance that you get check/raised.

Cheers,
Pots

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
if he has a king or a queen he is going to call you. I think you should have checked that river. You lose to any hand that will call you and you will make any hand that you beat fold. Plus there is always the chance that you get check/raised.

Cheers,
Pots

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but it's certainly not as clear cut as you make it out to be. How about A2, A3, A4, or 55-77?

-Craig

[housenuts]

i think you're done on the turn. UTG+1 called 2 cold. i would assume you're beat and check/fold. not sure if i raise this flop either, but i probably do sometimes.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
I have trouble figuring out when the free showdown raise is a good play, so I don't do it very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have trouble with that too. It's something that I probably miss opportunities to use as it didn't cross my mind until after the hand was over. What are others thoughts on a possible turn raise here or in other similar situations?


[ QUOTE ]
And, hopefully, if I left anything significant out or got something wrong in this post, someone will correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for responding; your advice was definitely helpful.

-Craig

[krishanleong]

Fold. Anyone that calls 2 cold on the flop and then leads the turn makes me want to muck.

Krishan

[sfwusc]

Flop is fine. I can see reason for it.

Turn is bad. With the flop(one of the reason for it is to see where you are) call and bet into---you are down. That screams- "I was going to check raise, but was afraid you would check through"