Irieguy
02-19-2005, 04:14 PM
Well, after finally beginning to pull myself out of a bad run the likes of which I had heretofore thought to be impossible; I feel I am as ready as ever to draft my definitive "bad run" post.
My profits are back to an acceptable level for 2005, but I must say that I had quite a bad start this year. I learned so much from 2+2 posters as I began playing SNGs regularly last year that I feel like I should "pay it forward" and share what I've learned about running badly.
To begin with, most players (especially new players) have a great deal of difficulty discriminating between common variance and a bonafide bad spell. The best way to differentiate between the two would probably be to pick some statistical thresholds and declare that anything above or below those thresholds are unlikely enough to warrant consideration for being particularly "lucky" or "unlucky" events. But running badly really has nothing to do with statistics... it's an emotional event. The fragile, twisted, neurotic mind of a SNG player cannot truly comprehend the implications of the metrics we discuss on this forum. Statistical perspective is a necessary component to a sound psyche, but it is not enough. Hopefully I can offer another type of perspective.
Running Bad
If you play SNGs regularly (at least 400 a month), there are certain things that will happen so frequently that you really will get used to them. A 100 SNG negative ROI run, for example. A 12 SNG OOTM streak. A 20 buy-in drop. These things happen so frequently that if you are able go 30-60 days without seeing at least one of them, you are lucky. So unless you are running worse than that, you really aren't running badly... you're just playing SNGs. If you exceed one of those markers, though, I think it's OK to accept the fact that you are running badly. Go ahead and post something. Cry. Break something. Yell at a loved one for no good reason. We are all human beings, so some indulgence must be taken in the name of misery. Do not torture yourself with the belief that such irrational behavior is not Zen. In fact, it is the third tenet of IrieZen philosophy (the obscure spritual fusion of rastafarianism and zen buddhism to which I subscribe):
"Let if flow. Then let it go."
But until your losing extends beyond 100 SNGs... until your losing streak surpasses 12 OOTM in a row... or until your bankroll hemorrhage exceeds 20 buy-ins, you aren't running bad. You're just playing SNGs. Just living, man. Grab a heineken, put your feet up, twist a fat one, look at your pathetic spreadsheet and laugh. Then log onto 2+2 and ruthlessly berate the newbie who authored the post "How can I lose 2 days in a row when my ROI was 47% over the past 72 SNGs?"
IT happens
Once you've truly entered the depths of a bad run, things actually ease up a bit. You've let it flow, and let it go, and you can comfortably settle into the rhythm of losing every 60-40 race for a week or so, and starting every session with a 10th place finish by getting aces or kings cracked. Then IT happens.
IT is that peculiar new level of running badly where you actually begin to develop paranormal powers. If your opponent needs precisely the 7 of clubs on the river to beat you, you will KNOW that the 7 of clubs is coming on the river. It's not pessimism, or selective memory, or anything like that. A luminous thread extending from your soul and enveloping the universe will resonate with the 7 of clubs. It's coming, and you know it. PartyPoker will pause an extra blink, as if to acknowledge the event. It's the electronic equivalent of Amarillo Slim winking at you before he slow rolls you in a low limit side game on day 27 of the WSOP.
When IT is happening, I sometimes revel in my new found psychic powers. If my wife is in the room, and my pocket kings are exposed against my opponents pocket 4's I will get her attention and say "watch, honey... a 4 will appear on this board." While my wife is pleased with the financial perks of my poker hobbie, she is much more impressed with my ability to declare the cards that will appear with 100% accuracy than she is with any ability I may have to play the right way. She doesn't beleive me when I tell her that the universe bestows upon us all brief periods of clairvoyance... she thinks it must be some form of legerdemain.
I don't know what IT is, or what causes IT, but IT happens. You no longer lose to overpairs. Your opponents will make a set at the minimum. They sometimes river quads when they don't even need it to win. You become particularly vulnerble to any hand with 2 gaps or less, because they are always live to a runner-runner straight. IT is what causes people to quit.
Which brings us to the second tenet of IrieZen philosophy:
"The universe will unfold as it should."
I'm not exactly sure what that means yet, but I think it has something to do with how you are supposed to handle IT.
That Which We Shall Not Speak Of
Then there is something so egregious, so horrifying, so odious that it shall not be given a name. I will mention it here, but I will never speak of it again.
It's origin is a simple statistical fact. If something is possible, it is possible for it to happen twice in a row.
Can a winning player have a 200-SNG stretch with a negative ROI? Anyone who's played more than a few thousand SNGs knows that this is possible. What if you had 2, 200-SNG losing stretches in a row? It gives me the chills just writing about it. This is the type of spell that can lead even the best player, with the soundest disposition into a psychological squalor from which he may never recover.
Anyways, it happens. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. The only thing that can save you is to adhere to the first and foremost tenet of IrieZen philosophy:
"Make yourself comfortable, and ride it out."
This means something different to everybody, but I will offer my own interpretation for what it's worth:
2 Dell 2001fps.
A papasan chair
A refrigerator full of Heineken
Ready access to Las Vegas lap artistry
Play the right way,
Irieguy
My profits are back to an acceptable level for 2005, but I must say that I had quite a bad start this year. I learned so much from 2+2 posters as I began playing SNGs regularly last year that I feel like I should "pay it forward" and share what I've learned about running badly.
To begin with, most players (especially new players) have a great deal of difficulty discriminating between common variance and a bonafide bad spell. The best way to differentiate between the two would probably be to pick some statistical thresholds and declare that anything above or below those thresholds are unlikely enough to warrant consideration for being particularly "lucky" or "unlucky" events. But running badly really has nothing to do with statistics... it's an emotional event. The fragile, twisted, neurotic mind of a SNG player cannot truly comprehend the implications of the metrics we discuss on this forum. Statistical perspective is a necessary component to a sound psyche, but it is not enough. Hopefully I can offer another type of perspective.
Running Bad
If you play SNGs regularly (at least 400 a month), there are certain things that will happen so frequently that you really will get used to them. A 100 SNG negative ROI run, for example. A 12 SNG OOTM streak. A 20 buy-in drop. These things happen so frequently that if you are able go 30-60 days without seeing at least one of them, you are lucky. So unless you are running worse than that, you really aren't running badly... you're just playing SNGs. If you exceed one of those markers, though, I think it's OK to accept the fact that you are running badly. Go ahead and post something. Cry. Break something. Yell at a loved one for no good reason. We are all human beings, so some indulgence must be taken in the name of misery. Do not torture yourself with the belief that such irrational behavior is not Zen. In fact, it is the third tenet of IrieZen philosophy (the obscure spritual fusion of rastafarianism and zen buddhism to which I subscribe):
"Let if flow. Then let it go."
But until your losing extends beyond 100 SNGs... until your losing streak surpasses 12 OOTM in a row... or until your bankroll hemorrhage exceeds 20 buy-ins, you aren't running bad. You're just playing SNGs. Just living, man. Grab a heineken, put your feet up, twist a fat one, look at your pathetic spreadsheet and laugh. Then log onto 2+2 and ruthlessly berate the newbie who authored the post "How can I lose 2 days in a row when my ROI was 47% over the past 72 SNGs?"
IT happens
Once you've truly entered the depths of a bad run, things actually ease up a bit. You've let it flow, and let it go, and you can comfortably settle into the rhythm of losing every 60-40 race for a week or so, and starting every session with a 10th place finish by getting aces or kings cracked. Then IT happens.
IT is that peculiar new level of running badly where you actually begin to develop paranormal powers. If your opponent needs precisely the 7 of clubs on the river to beat you, you will KNOW that the 7 of clubs is coming on the river. It's not pessimism, or selective memory, or anything like that. A luminous thread extending from your soul and enveloping the universe will resonate with the 7 of clubs. It's coming, and you know it. PartyPoker will pause an extra blink, as if to acknowledge the event. It's the electronic equivalent of Amarillo Slim winking at you before he slow rolls you in a low limit side game on day 27 of the WSOP.
When IT is happening, I sometimes revel in my new found psychic powers. If my wife is in the room, and my pocket kings are exposed against my opponents pocket 4's I will get her attention and say "watch, honey... a 4 will appear on this board." While my wife is pleased with the financial perks of my poker hobbie, she is much more impressed with my ability to declare the cards that will appear with 100% accuracy than she is with any ability I may have to play the right way. She doesn't beleive me when I tell her that the universe bestows upon us all brief periods of clairvoyance... she thinks it must be some form of legerdemain.
I don't know what IT is, or what causes IT, but IT happens. You no longer lose to overpairs. Your opponents will make a set at the minimum. They sometimes river quads when they don't even need it to win. You become particularly vulnerble to any hand with 2 gaps or less, because they are always live to a runner-runner straight. IT is what causes people to quit.
Which brings us to the second tenet of IrieZen philosophy:
"The universe will unfold as it should."
I'm not exactly sure what that means yet, but I think it has something to do with how you are supposed to handle IT.
That Which We Shall Not Speak Of
Then there is something so egregious, so horrifying, so odious that it shall not be given a name. I will mention it here, but I will never speak of it again.
It's origin is a simple statistical fact. If something is possible, it is possible for it to happen twice in a row.
Can a winning player have a 200-SNG stretch with a negative ROI? Anyone who's played more than a few thousand SNGs knows that this is possible. What if you had 2, 200-SNG losing stretches in a row? It gives me the chills just writing about it. This is the type of spell that can lead even the best player, with the soundest disposition into a psychological squalor from which he may never recover.
Anyways, it happens. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. The only thing that can save you is to adhere to the first and foremost tenet of IrieZen philosophy:
"Make yourself comfortable, and ride it out."
This means something different to everybody, but I will offer my own interpretation for what it's worth:
2 Dell 2001fps.
A papasan chair
A refrigerator full of Heineken
Ready access to Las Vegas lap artistry
Play the right way,
Irieguy