'Playing 15 Percent' by Mason

[That guy]

'Poker Essays 2' pg 97

I am sure this has been discussed before but just to revisit it for current trends (since we all have lots of hard data), is this benchmark reasonable??

My 'flops seen' is 16.9% over my last 7k hands. I feel I am too far on the tight side but I am actually above Masons recommendation... I know I am in the bottom 5 or 10% of

I know this all varies depending on who you are playing, how aggressive the game is and many other factors...

In case you don't have the book, here is the relevant excerpt:

"Against an extremely tight player in a tough game it might be correct to throw away some of the Group 2 hands such as ace-jack suited and king-queen suited... In this situation, we recommend that you play only about 3% of your hands....
Now suppose on the button in the exact same game as above, there is no raise, but there are many players in the pot... you would now be playing as many as 40% of your hands."

"observe that someone who plays as I just described does play approximately 15% of his hands."

Note that he is not talking about VP$IP so 15% is actually higher than a VP$IP number (difference being free plays from the blinds)...

[Nate tha' Great]

I'm not fully aware of the context of Mason's quote, but I think 15% is too tight in most games.

One thing I like to do is break my hands played down into VPIP categories, based on my Pokertracker stats.

I applied the following filters:

* At least 7 players at the table
* I was NOT in a blind

My overall VPIP in games that are 7-handed or more is 19%. These are mostly 15/30 Party hands, with some higher limit (30/60, 50/100) hands thrown in. My database consists of about 33K hands total; 18.5K remain after the filter (I play a fair amount of shorthanded).

The reason that I'm filtering out the hands where I'm in a blind is because the profitability conditions are different in these circumstances. You don't need to make a profit with these hands - rather, you merely want to avoid a loss greater than you would have had if you had folded. If I show a loss of 0.49 BB with 76o from my BB, that would be a marginally good result since folding would cost me 0.50 BB. I do defend from my blinds liberally, however.

I. Hands with VPIP of 75% or higher

23 hands
63% of my hands played outside the blinds
+0.82 BB per hand played (NOT per hand dealt; note the distinction here)

II. Hands with VPIP between 50% and 75%

8 hands
14% of my hands played outside the blinds
+0.32 BB per hand played

III. Hands with VPIP between 25% and 50%

14 hands
14% of my hands played outside the blinds
+0.23 BB per hand played

IV. Hands with VPIP > 0% and less than 25%

41 hands (note: a lot of these are only played as blind steals)
8% of my hands played outside the blinds
+0.46 BB per hand played

If I never played the hands in the third and fourth groups, it would take my VPIP down by about 3%, e.g. take it from roughly 19% to 16%. I am only playing these hands when the conditions are quite favorable. However, these hands are showing a very solid profit for me when I do play them. In fact, they have made me about $6,500 in the past 5 weeks or so since I started keeping a detailed database (I have played quite a lot of poker during this period). There is a good argument that I should be playing *more* hands, and scraping out additional profits.

Playing too tight costs you money. More money than you'd think.

[That guy]

just curious, excluding blind steals and blind defenses, what do you consider your loosest calls to be (or loosest raises)??? Do you raise KTo if first-in with 5 left to act? Where is the earliest you will play A9o given whatever you think of as 'normal conditions'?

which of your hands are most surprisingly +EV??

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
just curious, excluding blind steals and blind defenses, what do you consider your loosest calls to be (or loosest raises)??? Do you raise KTo if first-in with 5 left to act? Where is the earliest you will play A9o given whatever you think of as 'normal conditions'?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard for me to say since I don't really consider my style to be all that loose. I'll play ATo and KJo a little bit earlier than some people, especially in a tight game. I'll sometimes get frisky with decent suited hands and smallish pairs in early position, raising when other people might limp or fold. I'll usually cold call with small pairs after one other cold caller unless the raiser is a rock. I'll play a hand like 54s on the Button after just one limper. I'll 3-bet with something like 77 more often than I'll fold it. Stuff like that.

[ QUOTE ]
which of your hands are most surprisingly +EV??

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played T7s six times, all on the Button, and it's showing a profit of 3.17 BB/hand! My blind steals with 98o are going really well. Sample size, sample size.

[amulet]

you say that you think you are too tight. i am not sure that you can be too tight. i think the 15% is a good number, and a winning number.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
you say that you think you are too tight. i am not sure that you can be too tight. i think the 15% is a good number, and a winning number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you miss the part where I explained that I've made over $6,000 dollars in the past month by playing shitty hands?

[amulet]

nate;

1. i was answering the original poster's question. and i think my answer was solid.

2. i have no idea what you think your $6000 proves. if you won $6000 in a month with trash, you got lucky or you have a great feel for the game, probably the former. a month of poker even 10 hours per day is not a big enough sample to judge anything in poker. and for at least 99.99% of people if they start with trash hands preflop, they are guaranteed losers. but congratulations on your wins.

[mmcd]

you say that you think you are too tight. i am not sure that you can be too tight

Where can I find these holdem games with no blinds?

Are they on one of the Party skins?

[That guy]

Where can I find these holdem games with no blinds?

good point, I am sure Mason forgot about the blinds when he wrote that article... he is always doing stuff like that.

[mmcd]

That was in response to "I'm not sure you can be too tight".

As for the 15%, I think thats probably close for a 2/4 blind structure, but in a 2/3 structured game, I think 15% is a bit too tight.

[amulet]

i agree with mason that that max ev is about 15%, but when i say i am not certain that you can play too tight what i mean are;
1. very few players are really to tight.
2. with the loose middle limit games, and unaware opponents, i think a extra tight player can still make a nice profit.

[BarronVangorToth]

Things can always be taken out of context.

I think we all can agree that if you apply the lessons from SSH, you will be playing more than 15% of your hands, especially in these live lower stakes games (5/10 & 10/20) where you regularly get 6-8 people per flop.

If you only play 15% of your holdings in that game, you're leaving money on the table.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[skp]

I am told that having a 22.02% VPIP on Party 15-30 is perfect to the second decimal...heh

....although given how my Feb has gone (a whopping $42 profit after 6K hands), I probably should gear it down to Amulet's 15% (although taking a break and having a 0% VPIP is probably best).

That extra $6,500 that Nate has won of late was no doubt at my expense...that bastard /images/graemlins/mad.gif.

I posted about Mason's 15% rule about a year ago and Mason replied. I can't remember what it is that he said exactly but I think it was something along the lines of game conditions have changed since he wrote the essay etc. Presumably, he would say 22.02% percent is perfect these days....heh

[mmcd]

I'm only at 21.46. What hand should add to to my arsenal?

[Randy_Refeld]

I believe Mason has said elsewhere that that is no longer accurate. Hopefully he will see this and elaborate.

[amulet]

at the "live" lower limits i agree. but not that much more.

and ssh was not written for the bigginer. many who are still learning should not play too many hands. they do not know how to get out of trouble.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
at the "live" lower limits i agree. but not that much more.

and ssh was not written for the bigginer. many who are still learning should not play too many hands. they do not know how to get out of trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm one of those people that believes the best way to learn the geography of a new city is to get thoroughly lost in it.

[That guy]

The article is really a summary of comments from HPFAP where he discusses playing up to 40% of your hands in some conditions (unraised, multiway pots) and down to 3% when conditions call for tight play...

The article really should be something that relates your target VP$IP to the average table VP$IP rather than an absolute number like '15%'... this will clearly vary with raised or unraised pots so using just VP$IP isn't perfect but its better than using an absolute number like '15%'...

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
the best way to learn the geography of a new city is to get thoroughly lost in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... your good at this.

-Brad

[amulet]

a lot depends on the game, but of couse if you happen to play in a lot of games where you get a free play in the blinds that is different then voluntarily entering. but i can't see it being a lot more then 15% in most upper limit, aggressive games, and i can see it lower depending on your typical game selection at higher limits.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
and ssh was not written for the bigginer.

[/ QUOTE ]

couldnt of said it better myself

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
at the "live" lower limits i agree. but not that much more.

[/ QUOTE ]


I believe the same applies to even the mid limits live. My buddy regularly plays -- and beats soundly -- the 20/40 and higher games when they are offered, and he has about 25% on PP and does the same live....

Post flop play and tactical raising can be oftentimes more profitable than just playing the nuts.

HOWEVER, absolutely, for the newer player it is FAR better to be extremely tight (to the point of weak-tight) than to go into that 25-30% range where some things are "on the edge" and need to be played properly.

Regardless, in 2K5, the players are far worse than they were a decade ago, hence the adjustment in my book.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted about Mason's 15% rule about a year ago and Mason replied. I can't remember what it is that he said exactly but I think it was something along the lines of game conditions have changed since he wrote the essay etc. Presumably, he would say 22.02% percent is perfect these days....heh

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't the opposite be true? Aren't the games more aggressive preflop these days? I would think you would have alot fewer opportunities to play stuff like KJ or TJs in MP in todays games because of all the preflop aggression. The preflop aggresion is usually what dictates my VPIP, is Mason saying that because the games are more aggressive and the players are worse we should loosen the reigns and start cold calling alot more hands to get to 22% VPIP?

[TStoneMBD]

im very new to the poker world, so i dont know what poker was like ten years ago, but id assume that the games have loosened up dramatically since then, and therefore you can play multiway hands like 22 and 9Ts more liberally now then you could in the past.