I butchered this one, whats your move?

[me454555]

I thought this hand would generate some interesting discussion b/c of the turn action.

I'm UTG w/8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and limp, LP Tag raises, and calling station (50/5) calls. Sb calls, I call.

Flop 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet out, pfr folds, calling station and sb calls

Turn 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

sb bets, I......

What's my action here

[Clarkmeister]

You have to raise and knock out the calling station behind you.

[thirddan]

why not fold? you are getting about 7:1 and are probably drawing to only 3 outs and you might be drawing dead, also you don't close the action and calling station may have you beat also...plus there is a big chance that you will be 3bet...

[Clarkmeister]

I think you are being too pessimistic. I have a flush draw, a gutshot straight draw and an overpair. I can't fold. Since I can't fold, the option to raise and get it headsup seems superior to only calling as if I am in the lead it's criminal to let the guy behind me call with anything for just one bet. Plus, I can easily blow someone off something like a middling heart that is bigger than mine. The bettor very frequently has 2 pair or a straight here and I'm in good enough shape against both those to continue with 6BBs in the pot. Plus, I set myself up to possibly get a free showdown if I want on the river which has value also.

[thirddan]

i am quite a pessimist, but i think you are overvaluing some things here...

your flush draw is unlikely to make you any money if it is good...when a fourth heart comes on the river you aren't gonna get action from a worse hand so your implied odds are slight...

also, its very doubtful that your 8's are good here when sb bets out into two players (including the flop bettor) when a straight and flush come on the turn...while some players would go for a c/r, i think that many players over estimate the intelligence of many casual players. a lot of poster say that a flush or straight will go for a c/r and some will, but i think most will just bet out, you are almost surely beat here...

while i do agree that raising is better than calling i just think that under these circumstances a fold is best...especially considering that a a raise may not even knock out the calling station and we are likely to be 3bet by all hands that beat us...are you planning to fold if sb 3bets? because this is costing us 2BB whereas calling down also costs 2BB (but doesn't protect the hand)...

comment?

[Clarkmeister]

My experience is that when people bet out in situations like this they rarely have the flush. They tend to specifically have the straight. But even with a mix of made flush/straight/two pair combos, the pot is big enough that we need to continue. And we don't need to be best very often here to make folding a big mistake. If this was a game with no river card, would you call SB's bet to see a showdown right now? I'd at least consider it, which leads me to think 88 is good at least 10% of the time here. Take that 10% plus the 6-1 the flop is laying us with further chance of improvement, I just can't see folding to the turn bet.

And yes, I fold if SB 3-bets as people almost never 3-bet a straight here and there are almost no 2-card flush combos lower than my 8.

[thirddan]

[ QUOTE ]
If this was a game with no river card, would you call SB's bet to see a showdown right now? I'd at least consider it, which leads me to think 88 is good at least 10% of the time here. Take that 10% plus the 6-1 the flop is laying us with further chance of improvement, I just can't see folding to the turn bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

in a game with no river i probably would not call the turn bet, especially not closing the action, in this case even if you think you are good 10% the pot isn't big enough to justify the call...

but i think the combination of being good along with some weak draws makes seeing the river ok...if you hit a heart on the river and he bets are you gonna call, getting 11-1? how often do you think you are good in that case?

[Clarkmeister]

"in this case even if you think you are good 10% the pot isn't big enough to justify the call"

That's right, but my point is what say my 10% figure is reasonable, suddenly folding becomes very bad, that's all.

I think your next question is if I raise, and get it headsup then he bets into me again when a heart comes, how often do I think I'm good? Enough to justify calling, say 15% or so.

[thirddan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your next question is if I raise, and get it headsup then he bets into me again when a heart comes, how often do I think I'm good? Enough to justify calling, say 15% or so.


[/ QUOTE ]

that was my question, you are very wise...but i have more questions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

on the turn we had about 10% the best hand and on the river about 15%, not much has changed and we have made our best draw...but now that we have bloated the pot by raising on fourth street we have to call, so how much did we actually gain? not sure if this question makes sense or if its even relevant...

also, if we are HU on the river and make our flush and sb checks, i assume you are betting? how often do you think a worse hand will call?

[Clarkmeister]

"not much has changed and we have made our best draw...but now that we have bloated the pot by raising on fourth street we have to call, so how much did we actually gain?"

Well, a lot has changed. We have more information for one as we didn't get 3-bet, the caller folded, etc. As you are aware, this is merely one hypothetical of many.

"if we are HU on the river and make our flush and sb checks, i assume you are betting? how often do you think a worse hand will call? "

Yes, I bet. I also bet if I make a straight. As far as worse hands calling, I find that people find ways to convince themselves to call. I'd expect any two pair or better to call most of the time.

[thirddan]

thank you sir...as others have said, we appreciate you hanging out in SS lately...

[Clarkmeister]

Thanks. Watch the results, SB probably has the nut flush making me look retarded. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[thirddan]

haha, don't be results oriented /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Redeye]

I'm gonna reply to this one without looking, so ignore me if others have already said the same thing (or something completely different for that matter).

I would raise. SBs bet seems fishy, your in perfect position for him to c/r the field with a flush. He might be scared it'll check through, but I doubt it since there are two players to ace. He also may have a 5 and is scared, but I think your proabably have the best hand a fair amount.

If SB has a 5, you probably have heart outs, if SB has two pair you probably have heart outs. I wouldn't want the calling station hanging around with any overcards here and want to charge him to draw.

I'd also fold to a 3-bet. Thats probably not happening unless SB has a fairly decent made flush.

[me454555]

As soon as I finished this hand, I thought it was strait out of SSH and a perfect example of why you should protect your hand.

As you probobly guessed, I called like an idiot. As soon as I made the call, I knew I screwed up the hand. This is a clear raise situation as clark pointed out. My hand may be best right now and is very vulnerable. If sb 3 bets me, I can toss it right there. He probobly isn't likely to 3 bet me w/out a flush so I can assume that I've got some outs here if I'm behind and he doesn't 3 bet. He is also likely to bluff given the draw heavy nature of the board.

My biggest concern here w/the raise was to knock out the CO caller. He likely had some sort of live draw against me whether its overcards or a 1 card flush. Its very important for me to eliminate him b/c there are a lot of bad cards that can come on the river.

After I called the turn, CO called as well.

River came J /images/graemlins/club.gif. Sb checked indicating he was on a bluff. I bet out, CO raised sb tossed it and so did I. I feel he probobly would have folded if I raised the turn but failing to protect my hand cost me the whole pot in this situation.

[thirddan]

what hand do you think CO can have to raise that river card that he would have folded on the turn? i doubt that he would have a dry J, maybe J7 but unlikely since he wouldn't raise the river...most likely a made flush or straight, which isn't folding the turn...

but yeah, raising > folding > calling, but you know that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i guess Clark is safe from being "retarded" SB did not have the nut flush /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[me454555]

I actually thought folding was the worst option b/c there is a good chance my hand was still good on the turn. Sb might bluff here w/a lone heart, or maybe even worse if he was aggro enough.

CO might fold a strait on the turn when faced w/calling 2 cold. He might have J7 or something like that and caught 2 pair on the turn. He might have even had JJ, who knows? If I knew I was going to post it, I woulda spent the extra $6 to call his raise and figure out what he had.

[thirddan]

[ QUOTE ]
CO might fold a strait on the turn when faced w/calling 2 cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

calling station (50/5) = folding straight is unlikely...

[me454555]

He might fold overcards, or at least I get to charge him more for that. The important thing to notice here is that he could have had KJ or something weird and just called my river bet and turn over the winner. That would have been a disaster.

50/5 pf doesn't mean he's not folding when its 2 BBs back to him and he sees a 3 flush on board. He might have even had 99. I know thats not likely given his river raise but on the turn I didn't know that. If a raise here knocks that hand out, thats huge +EV for me.

[Clarkmeister]

I play goot.

[That guy]

On the one hand, the poster put 2 BB's in at the end of the day so raising and folding to a 3-bet would have accomplished more for the same price. The only problem is if you get called and bet or face a bet on the river.

Raising is best on the turn.

My issue is pre-flop, I think you have to raise it or fold it. Folding is pretty tight so I think you have to raise. I don't want to play a multiway pot with 88 unless I am limping in for set value or playing out of the blinds.

By limping, you are encouraging multiway action... then it gets raised behind you and you are stuck playing the worst situation: raised pot and 4-way (doesn't have set value and lots of ways to lose)...

comments?

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
My issue is pre-flop, I think you have to raise it or fold it. Folding is pretty tight so I think you have to raise. I don't want to play a multiway pot with 88 unless I am limping in for set value or playing out of the blinds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why you think you have to raise or fold pocket 8s from UTG. Limping is just fine. (Folding is atrocious.) You limp and see what develops. If 7 people limp behind you it is quite likely that you are mostly playing for set value. But if there are only a few callers behind you (or even a raiser for that matter) you may well have the best hand on the flop even without making a set and yuo need to play accordingly. Learning to play medium pocket pairs well in different situations is very important.

[That guy]

Learning to play medium pocket pairs well in different situations is very important.

well it is kind of a style thing... I don't like to limp in much as first one in (unless playing live). that is a core poker principle to which I adhere and I know I have company in this principle so while I admit it can be debated, I know I am not 'clearly wrong' on this. I enter pots with raises and believe this is a superior strategy for online. I want to avoid very marginal EV situations like playing middle pairs out of position in 4-way raised pots. You will likely be playing a big pot only when you flop a set, when you are way behind or when you are very vulnerable to being outdrawn. This combination makes more for gambling than it does for +EV. Often, even with raising, I will still end up in the same situation as the poster of this thread and I will still have to play these --but I feel better about getting outdrawn to someone with J9-suited vs my 88 if I made him pay 2 bets to enter the pot, short-handed... if you disagree, so be it but I DO AGREE WITH YOU that if you think it could go 5 or 6 way or more, then limping in is a superior play here. I just don't think that happens enough for that to be the default play... if you disagree, I understand that...

in later position and if the pot develops like that then great, its a clear limp.

middle pairs are inherently difficult to play in 4-way pots out of position. I just don't see 6 or 7-way limped pots (except in B&M where I see it all the time) enough for that to be the highest EV play. I think you are definitely correct if your assumption for thinking about +EV is that it could go 7-way...

[me454555]

I think you have it backward. It is more profitable to raise this in late posiition than to limp w/it. I'd rather limp in EP.

I raise 88 UTG about 25% of time, mostly it depends on table conditions. If the table is loose, I'm more likely to limp as a flop bet won't win the pot right away. If it was tighter and I could get it heads up w/a raise then I'd probobly raise.

When you play 88 UTG, your not playing for set value only. 88 plays decent unimproved and raising just elminates a lot of hands that I have pretty well dominated pf. I'm also out of position in this hand so I like raising even less.

[That guy]

raising just elminates a lot of hands that I have pretty well dominated pf. I'm also out of position in this hand so I like raising even less.

what does 88 have dominated?

I agree that interpreting table conditions is the key variable in playing 88.

If the table is playing tight, and others will view me as tight (as I am)... if I limp from UTG+1, I might as well announce 'I have 88' (ok, 99 might be as likely but same difference)...

If I see a TAG limp in UTG+1, I have a good idea what they might have (88 or 99 is a likely holding)...

If others view me as tight and I raise from UTG+1, they will put me on AA-JJ or AK -- and they will be right most of the time... By raising UTG+1 with 88-TT, I might get 99/TT and AQ/ATs to lay down... which is all good.

with 8 players to act 88 has a 20% chance of being dominated by a bigger pair. if I can get 99 & TT to lay down, then there is only a 15% chance I am dominated. If AQ lays down, I only have to worry if the board comes A or K. does AQ lay down? clearly not from loose players but TAG's probably will... JTs and QTs and T9s and A9s will all fold for 2 bets unless there are lots of cold callers... that is fine with me.

I do also limp with 88 but I am then playing for a set. Assuming it is multiway, I will only make a play for the pot if the board comes something I like. Still, if the action gets too hot in a multiway pot and the board has some texture... see ya.

If you raise and isolate 1 or 2 others, now you can play aggressively and others might lay down thinking I probably have QQ on average...

Of course, this all depends highly on table conditions.

[me454555]

I guess I have a wider range of limping hands than you. I will limp UTG w/9s, 8s, 7s, 6s, sometimes 5s and 4s if the table is right, QTs, QJs, JTs, sometime T9s and 98s if the table is right. Sometimes even Axs if the table is right too.

[ QUOTE ]
with 8 players to act 88 has a 20% chance of being dominated by a bigger pair. if I can get 99 & TT to lay down, then there is only a 15% chance I am dominated. If AQ lays down, I only have to worry if the board comes A or K. does AQ lay down? clearly not from loose players but TAG's probably will... JTs and QTs and T9s and A9s will all fold for 2 bets unless there are lots of cold callers... that is fine with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT will 3 bet, 99 might lay down or might 3 bet depending on their read. If they know I am likely to raise AJ, ATs, KQ, AQ and AK they might even 3 bet me. The hands that I was refering to were hands like A6, A5 98, 87 and so on that you have beaten and would not be correct in calling a flop bet. Also, I don't mind AQ sticking around too much b/c they are still an underdog to me and are only 2:1 to hit the flop. If they limp and the flop comes low cards, they will be making an error by calling if the pot is small say around 4 or 5 sbs.

[ QUOTE ]
I do also limp with 88 but I am then playing for a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fundamental mistake. 88 has much more than just set value. You will flop an overpair a good portion of the time and you can probobly win unimproved 20% of the time or so. By limping, I can also put more pressure on those behind me if the flop is favorable and sb or bb leads into me.

Again, a lot of this depends on reads and table conditions