Q9s in CO

[chief444]

Here's one I just played that I thought had some close decisions.

Button was tight/passive and BB is an unknown, SB very loose average aggression both pre and post flop, UTG+2 is 28/2/.81 (pretty loose - fairly passive)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero folds.

[belloc]

I think this is fine, though I might just call the turn bet from this relative position to the opener. Is this raise for value here?

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine, though I might just call the turn bet from this relative position to the opener. Is this raise for value here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt that was the closest decision. I felt it was for value with UTG+2 calling ahead of meand wasn't real concerned about being 3-bet. Plus I intended to check the river unimproved if checked to.

[runa]

Flop
With a gutshot and an overcard and 4 checks to me in position I might bet this to clean up a bit. I like the free turn card too.

Turn
I like the raise for value here.

River
Is there any chance we'll see a weaker Qx here more than 10% of the time? I'm kind of a calling station in these situations so im not sure. I usually expect a flush to try to CR, but that might be giving them too much credit for thinking/playing well.

[Cerril]

If I flushed up on the river here I'd be hesitant to check with only the turn raiser to act. Too often he'll be scared into checking behind when the scare card hits.

I'd be tempted to bet the flop as well just to try to get rid of one card flushes, and I'd hate throwing away my hand on the river but I don't see it being likely enough you're ahead.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop
With a gutshot and an overcard and 4 checks to me in position I might bet this to clean up a bit. I like the free turn card too.


[/ QUOTE ]
I thought about this. And to be honest I thought harder about the flop than the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
River
Is there any chance we'll see a weaker Qx here more than 10% of the time? I'm kind of a calling station in these situations so im not sure. I usually expect a flush to try to CR, but that might be giving them too much credit for thinking/playing well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt pretty comfortable with the fold. UTG+2 from what I had seen was very passive and predictable. Plus I was certain SB would overcall and may have me beat. But I think I call against an unknown.

[Moozh]

To chime in late, it looks perfect to me. A bet on the river from a 2% pfr indicates a fold.

If it had been checked to you on the river, I'd probably go for the bet and fold to a raise line.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
To chime in late, it looks perfect to me. A bet on the river from a 2% pfr indicates a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the 2% is the statistic that made him fold this hand.

[Moozh]

2% pfr signifies a passive opponent, that's really what I was implying by saying that.

When a passive opponent bets out on the river in this situation, I thik you can fold with confidence.

[27offsooot]

I understand what you're saying, but there is a difference b/t pre-flop and post-flop aggression. The .81 Post-flop aggression level is what made this a good fold.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
The .81 Post-flop aggression level is what made this a good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, and I believe it was. I did plan on checking the river through. I'd be interested in what anyone thinks about that assuming a blank falls.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The .81 Post-flop aggression level is what made this a good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, and I believe it was. I did plan on checking the river through. I'd be interested in what anyone thinks about that assuming a blank falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I value bet the river 100% of the time if a blank falls.

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The .81 Post-flop aggression level is what made this a good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, and I believe it was. I did plan on checking the river through. I'd be interested in what anyone thinks about that assuming a blank falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I value bet the river 100% of the time if a blank falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Top pair on a rag board. Bet and fold to a raise.

[sublime]

Button was tight/passive

raise preflop

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Button was tight/passive

raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]
I considered it. But button was like a 10%VPIP after 200+ hands so I felt I might get position anyway. And MP2 was a pretty solid TAG. Would you still raise? It was actually MP2 that made me just limp. But normally I would raise here and in hindsight you're probably right.

edit...I included the button read just to see if anyone felt I should raise preflop.

[buzzbait]

[ QUOTE ]
Button was tight/passive

raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

With what read on the button do you not raise here? LAG? Any loose?

[sublime]

With what read on the button do you not raise here? LAG? Any loose?

i guess the guy would have to be extremely loose, but on that note you could argue that the raise is for 'pure' value. the skill level of the limpers of course comes into play, but i raise this almost always. i expect at least on the blinds to come along and i have pretty good equity with a mid-large suited hand.