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JoeTable
02-18-2005, 05:02 PM
I'm not sure, but I think this is about as close as you can get to drawing dead *before* the flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1860)
BB (t1940)
Hero (t325)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1135)
CO (t1315)
Button (t880)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t325 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t525</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t880 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t355.

Flop: (t2385) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2385) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t2385) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2385

Results below: <font color="#0000FF">
Hero has Qd 9s (three of a kind, queens).
MP2 has As 9d (one pair, queens).
Button has Js Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Button wins t2385. </font>

Slim Pickens
02-18-2005, 05:19 PM
Nah... you need the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif out against you.

JoeTable
02-18-2005, 05:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Nah... you need the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif out against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, didn't see that. next time maybe.

OatmealJoe
02-18-2005, 05:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure, but I think this is about as close as you can get to drawing dead *before* the flop.

Results below: <font color="#0000FF">
Hero has Qd 9s (three of a kind, queens).
MP2 has As 9d (one pair, queens).
Button has Js Qs (three of a kind, queens).
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

According to twodimes, you have about a 6% chance of winning (EV .079):
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=778552
pokenum -h qd 9s - as 9d - qs js
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s Qd 80973 5.91 1233438 89.98 56343 4.11 0.079
As 9d 757414 55.26 584480 42.64 28860 2.11 0.562
Qs Js 476024 34.73 859421 62.70 35309 2.58 0.359


If you had something like AKo vs AA and KK, you'd have a considerably worse chance of winning (3.74%) (EV .043):

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=778555
pokenum -h as kd - ah ad - kc ks
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 51222 3.74 1301654 94.96 17878 1.30 0.043
Ad Ah 1157182 84.42 197614 14.42 15958 1.16 0.849
Ks Kc 144472 10.54 1218263 88.88 8019 0.59 0.108


Worse yet, if you didn't have a straight draw and opponents had higher cards in your suits, you are down to less than 2% of winning (but still EV .042 because of ties):
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=778586
pokenum -h qd 7s - ad 7c - qs js
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s Qd 27192 1.98 1281403 93.48 62159 4.53 0.042
7c Ad 733706 53.53 606799 44.27 30249 2.21 0.546
Qs Js 547697 39.96 785353 57.29 37704 2.75 0.413

Not a good spot to be in...

KenProspero
02-18-2005, 05:55 PM
Hey, you hit the flop, and now have two outs.

A GOOD player would win, given two outs!!!