When to fold when you know your beat

[Sir Limps Alot]

1 of the many hands I have run into over my time playing poker.

2 4 Party

K : /images/graemlins/club.gif:Q /images/graemlins/club.gif suited on the button

2 limpers to me I call (thought about a raise but want more callers with this hand)

Small Blind Raises the 2 limpers call and so do I.
4 to the flop.

Flop comes Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif rainbow
Bet,call, fold I raise small blind re-raises 1 caller I cap small blind calls, limper calls
I am putting SB on an over pair Ks or Aces or A Q and limper trapped in a hand he has no right being in.

Turn 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Check, Check I bet small blind calls, limper folds
Definite overpair on SB
River
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Small Blind Bets, I know I am beat and he has a Full house Kings full of Queens and he caught the 1 card in the deck that could beat me.
I raise even though I know I am beat is this the wrong play here or is the pot enough to make a bet here. I raise he three bets I call and I lose.

I have been in this situation where I know I am beat but due to my odds and the situation I play it aggressively and normally against my instinct.

When I play I put people on a hand and play against that hand but when the stats are in my favor I tend to fall back on the math of the game.

You would never fold this hand.
Should I just call in this situation?

[private joker]

You need to raise this hand preflop. Saying you want more callers is insane. Why? Your hand is not a monster. It's just better than the other hands. Do you want Ace-rag calling you and beating you with a pair of aces?

Nothing wrong with capping the flop. You have trips with a great kicker and you need to play it fast.

Turn is standard. I would also raise the river because you did just hit a full house. Only when Villain 3-bets do I consider he might have KK. It's just too narrow a hand range to merely call the river (i.e., only one way he can have KK).

Let's go back to preflop -- if you raise this like you should, then SB's 3-bet with KK will define his hand a lot better. But don't worry; the times you make the second nut boat and lose are few and far between. The second nut boat will win a lot of hands. Because boats are good hands. Very good hands.

If you'd played this hand properly, you would have lost another 2 small bets preflop.

[crunchy1]

If this post is serious then there are some SERIOUS adjustments that you need to make to your thinking while you're in a hand. The only other option I see is that you are being sarcastic with comments like "I am putting SB on an over pair Ks or Aces or A Q" or "Definite overpair on SB". I'm guessing this was not your intent so follow along and rethink your thinking.....

[ QUOTE ]
K : /images/graemlins/club.gif:Q /images/graemlins/club.gif suited on the button
2 limpers to me I call (thought about a raise but want more callers with this hand)

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise!! You don't want more callers with this hand it's not strong enough. Define your hand... Knock out the blinds (increasing your chances of winning)... Possibly gain a free turn card.... The list goes on and on - you have to raise here.

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...I am putting SB on an over pair Ks or Aces or A Q and limper trapped in a hand he has no right being in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why? This is an awfully small range of hands for a SB that limped PF. Sounds like the "monsters under the bed" syndrome.... I think it's much more likely for him to have a weaker Q or possibly 55...

[ QUOTE ]
Turn 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Check, Check I bet small blind calls, limper folds
Definite overpair on SB


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Again you're being really limited in your analysis - giving him two possible hands that he could be playing (although you've provided no reads on these players so it's difficult to say). Any player who would play an over pair as aggressively as SB played the flop would not have gone w/o a raise PF.

[ QUOTE ]

River
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Small Blind Bets, I know I am beat and he has a Full house Kings full of Queens and he caught the 1 card in the deck that could beat me.
I raise even though I know I am beat is this the wrong play here or is the pot enough to make a bet here. I raise he three bets I call and I lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know that you're beat??? C'mon - there is 1 hand 1 way in the deck that beats you at this point. Let's review the action:

No raise PF - most likely not a play made with KK
Heavy flop action - most likely not a play that anyone who limps with KK would make on a paired board
Turn check/call - the one point in the hand where you might think he has AA/KK if you take this one street out of context of the rest of the hand. There's no way in hell that you can determine he has KK off the play of this one street.

You just improved to a monster hand on the river. Bet, raise, cap - this is Party 2/4.

[ QUOTE ]
I have been in this situation where I know I am beat but due to my odds and the situation I play it aggressively and normally against my instinct.

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep saying you know that you are beat. How do you really know?! Are you going to check your trips down (or maybe fold them) every time you have this instinctive read across the cable/phone lines??

I'm having a hard time seeing if you posted the results in your OP - it gets kind of discombobulated towards the end. If you did lose make a note on this player describing what happened.

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When I play I put people on a hand and play against that hand

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You shouldn't be playing against one hand - you should be playing against the possiblity of a range of hands. No one - and I mean no one in the world - is good enough to consistently peg the many different players we see online day to day on one specific hand in each pot.

[ QUOTE ]
but when the stats are in my favor I tend to fall back on the math of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Use these stats and math against the range of hands. If you are putting the player on one hand and that read is wrong - then subsequently your math must also be incorrect. The case is then that not only are you making bad reads but, you are also calculating incorrect odds.

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You would never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hell NO I wouldn't!!!

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Should I just call in this situation?

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Hell NO you shouldn't bet/raise/cap the river!!!

One final note on the PF play. Had you raised PF this hand would have been extremely easier to play post-flop. If SB did have KK you would've been 3-bet PF (I'm guessing at least 95% of the time - with no read on SB). Secondly, with a PF raise SB would've given you credit for a big hand and may have dumped KK on the flop or turn to your continued aggression. IMO - Raising, accomplishes so many objectives PF, always contributes to making post-flop decisions easier.

PS. Don't post results in the original thread and use the converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi/)to make it easier for us to read.

[Etric]

SB did raise.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
SB did raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops.. missed that....

Let me link again BisonBison's Hand Converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi/)

[Joe Tall]

I call (thought about a raise but want more callers with this hand)

You've got it all wrong. We raise w/big broadway hands and suited broadway hands because we are gaining overlay on our opponents preflop. Besides the times you flop a str8 or flush draw; we'll flop top pair quite often (3:1), and when we flop top pair w/big broadway cards, our hand is going to be often good as they are going to be the high pair.

I am putting SB on an over pair Ks or Aces

Even the most passive players know to raise preflop w/AA and KK.

As for the river, it plays itself, that's poker. In the future don't put the results in your post, you'll get more responses.


Peace,
Joe Tall

[Etric]

1) Raise pf.
2) You put people on only the hands that beat you.
3) I think on the turn he has a PP, any Q would have raised.
4) If you suspect that he hit his 2-outer, call the river instead of raising.

You had the best of it through the majority of this hand, SB just got lucky.

[Sir Limps Alot]

He did raise pre flop and after flop and called my three bet
What does that type of action say to you all.
It says he has a big hand but cant beat three Queens.

Bets out on the river. Hit his card or bluffing.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

4) If you suspect that he hit his 2-outer, call the river instead of raising.



[/ QUOTE ]

No. No. Calling this river when you've just made the second nuts is very weak. You need to raise. If he 3-bets and you call and lose, you are risking 2 bets to win 1, so you need to be ahead 2/3 of the time. Now consider that there is only one way for him to have KK, and consider that he will still be aggressive with AQ or a lower boat. How many times are you ahead here? 2/3? At least. I'd say KQ is the best hand in this situation 75-80% of the time. A raise is the correct play.

EDIT: Actually, with this board KQ is the best hand 95% of the time, but the action of the hand lowers this a bit (even more so if Hero remembered to raise PF and let SB 3-bet him).

[crunchy1]

Alright so some things in my post won't make sense because SB did raise PF. That being said, I still feel that the majority of the post is valid.

-Still raise PF - being 3-bet by SB would've defined his hand to you earlier and
possibly knocked out the 2 limpers leaving you heads-up

assuming the limpers dump....

-flop probably would've played out the same way although he may have flat-called your raise - going for a stop'n'go on the turn.

-Either with a stop'n'go attempt or a capped flop - you're still betting/raising on the turn and this will get many of the weak Party 2/4 players to fold right here.

-You should still love seeing the king hit the river and bet/raise/cap accordingly. Limiting him to only KK is hogwash in the Party 2/4 game. If you're not betting/raising/capping this hand on the river you are lowering your EV for this hand. It's a nano-micro-percentage of the time that your hand isn't good here.

-Lastly - you still can't limit your thinking in a hand like you did in this situation. You will be much more successful playing against ranges of hands rather than against one specific hand....

-Did I mention the hand converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi/)?

[Sir Limps Alot]

I hated seeing the King and knew I was beat especially after he bet out on the river

[Sir Limps Alot]

It was a 1 outer I had the other king

[crunchy1]

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In the future don't put the results in your post, you'll get more responses.

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Any reads on players would also be helpful - or a statement that you didn't have any reads. Sounds like tough luck on the river - but don't let that stop your aggressive play. You will lose a little more on the few times like this when you're beat but, you will win a LOT more on the MANY times when your hand is good...

[crunchy1]

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Bets out on the river. Hit his card or bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

W/o a read this is unclear - although against most players I still raise and at the least call a 3-bet.

[Sir Limps Alot]

When does your instinct as a player dictate your play?

Should you just rely on the math of the game?

Most of us have played enough poker to understand how betting works and the structure in which betting is a tell or a map to the final result.
Through use of math and instinct you come up with a conclusion in your head before after and during the hand everchanging as the board and bets unfold.
At what point do you use instincts over mathmatics or do you ever?

[Nick C]

Limping on the Button with a hand as good as KQs isn't a very good idea, in my opinion. You probably have the best hand, and there isn't much to hope for in terms of additional callers. If no one raises, the SB can complete for 1/2 of a SB, and the BB can check.

I think you should make them call a raise to play instead.

I raise KQs UTG, actually, but I like raising with it when the action has been limped to me on the Button even more.

[Joe Tall]

He did raise pre flop and after flop and called my three bet

Opps, I do see that now. But the it doesn't change the river much as you'll see a lessor Q, AK, 99 or something else enough to make your river raise profitable.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
When does your instinct as a player dictate your play?

[/ QUOTE ]
When I think of instincts - I think physical reads - so in terms of instincts dictating actions in online play - Never.

If you are referring to instincts as in betting patterns - then yes they dictate my play to the extent of putting someone on a range of hands given the statistics I have on them from the play in previous hands/sessions. If I have someone pegged as a rock and they raise UTG I'm putting them on AA-TT, AKs, AK, and AQs (maybe AJs) and my post-flop play adjusts accordingly (if in fact I have a hand worthy of playing PF - which in this case will almost always be a 3-betting hand). If I have someone pegged as a LAG and they raise that range of hands becomes almost infinite - and my post-flop play adjusts.

The key is that I think betting patterns end with a range of hands - because so many hands can be pattern-bet in the same way it has to be a range. There is few if any players that will ONLY raise PF with AA. These players will raise with a range of hands such as I decribed for the rock above.

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Should you just rely on the math of the game?

[/ QUOTE ]
Math is your best friend when you're playing online.

In regards to the math on this hand - you're seeing it through to the end. The pot is simply too big to ever fold your hand - especially when you improve on the river. If you're dead set in your read of the SB having KK (and to be that dead set you really need to have a few hundred hands and lots of notes on SB, IMO) then you call - but I agree with Joe (and it's the point of my 'range of hands' discussion) that many times weaker hands to yours will play this hand in a similiar fashion and not raising the river here is missing bets.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
He did raise pre flop and after flop and called my three bet

Opps, I do see that now. But the it doesn't change the river much as you'll see a lessor Q, AK, 99 or something else enough to make your river raise profitable.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]

Even when Villain check/called the blank turn?

-d

[GailMI]

[ QUOTE ]
When does your instinct as a player dictate your play?

Should you just rely on the math of the game?

Most of us have played enough poker to understand how betting works and the structure in which betting is a tell or a map to the final result.
Through use of math and instinct you come up with a conclusion in your head before after and during the hand everchanging as the board and bets unfold.
At what point do you use instincts over mathmatics or do you ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the others here as far as the river goes. I agree that you should have raised pre-flop. I also agree that you should have played absolutely as aggressively as possible at the flop and turn. BUT--since he backed off on the turn (checked and called), and THEN bet out when the K came on the river (after you had already put him on an overpair), I would have just called. He either HAS the pocket kings or is representing them. Why risk a re-raise, thus losing two extra bets when you feel it's a strong possibility that you're beat?