55 from the button, underpair on paired rag board

[meep_42]

Hero is on the button with 55 (suits unimportant)

Two unremarkables limp (UTG+1, MP2), hero calls, both blinds call.

Flop (5 SB): 799 rainbow (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls

Turn (4.5BB): 9(997)r (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls

River (8.5BB): 4(9997) (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP2 fold, Hero calls

I think I needed to toss a raise in here somewhere, but I can't for the life of me figure out where i'd have done it. I thought I was likely good here the whole way. Should I raise the flop, bet the turn, then check the river?

-d

[Nick C]

Without a read on SB, I think I would have folded the flop.

He could have a straight draw, and I guess he could be taking a stab at the pot with just overcards against four opponents. But he could also have a 7 or even a 9. And if he has a pocket pair, it could easily be bigger than yours. Also, an OESD with T8 would have 17 outs against you, an OESD with 86 would have 13 outs, and a gutshot with J8 would also have 13 outs. So if SB has a piece of the flop, you're either way behind or have lots of cards to dodge.

Also, there are the two callers to worry about, who could also have you beaten and in any case most likely hold hands that give you additional cards to dodge, and you aren't really in a very good position relative to the flop bettor to try to protect your hand, even if it is currently best.

[meep_42]

I have no shame.

-d

[Shillx]

The best place to raise is the turn. With the callers in there, your raise doesn't have to be correct as often as if it were HU. Also, if you do have the best hand you get the most value at this point since overcards are going to call for another bet. If they fold, they will be doing so wrongly which also helps your cause. If you get 3-bet, you are drawing dead and you fold.

Brad

[runa]

I like popping it on the turn since I expect everyone to call looking to hit their 3-6 outs for a nice overlay, and I believe I currently have the best hand. They probably won't call a raise on the river without pairing up, thus making you lose even more money when they hit and getting nothing when they miss.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I like popping it on the turn since I expect everyone to call looking to hit their 3-6 outs for a nice overlay, and I believe I currently have the best hand. They probably won't call a raise on the river without pairing up, thus making you lose even more money when they hit and getting nothing when they miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

That 9 on the turn was a pretty good card for Hero, and if Shill says the turn is the place to raise, I'm not going to object. (The flop call was loose, in my opinion, but I think reads can justify it.)

But the 3-6 outs estimation for Hero's opponents on the turn is technically inaccurate. Heads-up with Hero, anyone with A6 (for instance) has 8.5 outs. There's a field, so unless someone has Hero crushed or everyone folds, it's entirely possible no one is doing quite that well. But I do think it's important to realize how vulnerable Hero's hand is, if best, on both the flop and even on the turn.

If Hero raises on the turn, what he wants is folds (though a single call from something like 33 would be okay).