40/80 commerce hand

[geormiet]

Somewhat toughish 40/80 game at Commerce. We are 8 handed. I'm just there for the free dinner (or a $2400 dinner, as it turns out...:))

I raise in mp with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

A tightish player cold calls to my left in mp, and both blinds come along as well.

The flop comes 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 8 small bets.

The small blind, who is fairly loose aggressive leads into me, I raise, mp 3 bets, sb calls, I call.

The turn is the 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. 8.5 big bets.

sb checks, I bet, mp calls, sb folds.

River is a J /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I check very quickly. mp thinks for about 30 seconds, and then bets, and I call.

I do well online, but my live results have been somewhat disastrous after maybe 100 hrs. This stuff is standard for me online...should I be playing differently live?

[Clarkmeister]

I'd bet the river for value, but checking is ok in that game because inducing bluffs works far better than it should. The rest is fine.

[TStoneMBD]

i dont like the river bet. 3 bet on the flop vs a tight player; shouldnt that usually mean a draw, a 9, or an overpair most of the time? what hand could he possibly have except for maybe 77? rest looks good.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhat toughish 40/80 game

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[ QUOTE ]
I raise in mp with A 8 .

A tightish player cold calls to my left in mp

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I think we've identified the problem.

[SmileyEH]

I think you played this well. All I can see MP having is TT or big spades. I like the river check because I cannot see a lot of worse hands calling, but many will bet on the river ie; busted flush draws. I think you probably lost to a rivered jack or TT.

By the way, were you planning to fold the turn or river if MP raised your turn bet?

-SmileyEH

[andyfox]

After the guy thinks that long on the river, anybody like a check-raise here? Sure looks like pocket tens and if he's indeed tightish . . . Or is this about as good as my pocket queens river check-raise loser?

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we've identified the problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, don't understand...this is sarcasm? I said the game is toughish...doesn't mean there aren't a few soft spots.
[ QUOTE ]

After the guy thinks that long on the river, anybody like a check-raise here? Sure looks like pocket tens and if he's indeed tightish . . . Or is this about as good as my pocket queens river check-raise loser?




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So brilliant! 48 hours after the hand, and maybe 6 hours after I posted it here, I also thought of checkraising. His delay bet often translates to "marginal value bet," and he was certainly capable of folding to a river c-r.

I suspect this is one area where live play differs significantly from online play - river bluff bets, raises, and check-raises probably have a higher success rate in live play.

And yeah, he had TT.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played this well. All I can see MP having is TT or big spades. I like the river check because I cannot see a lot of worse hands calling, but many will bet on the river ie; busted flush draws. I think you probably lost to a rivered jack or TT.

By the way, were you planning to fold the turn or river if MP raised your turn bet?

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, very easy fold on the turn to a raise.

[haakee]

When people think this long on the river I'm often tempted to check-raise as long as it's an insta-check-raise[tm]. I think it's not a bad idea even though I usually find myself called and beaten like a red-headed stepchild.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
After the guy thinks that long on the river, anybody like a check-raise here? Sure looks like pocket tens and if he's indeed tightish . . . Or is this about as good as my pocket queens river check-raise loser?

[/ QUOTE ]

hi andy,

the hand you speak of is different IMO.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I do well online, but my live results have been somewhat disastrous after maybe 100 hrs. This stuff is standard for me online...should I be playing differently live?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi geo, we've played together at the commerce 20/40 game remember? but from what i saw you seemed a bit loose IMO. but can't say for certain.

anyhoo, i think you played this hand well for what its worth.

[andyfox]

"I usually find myself called"

Ok, but this guy took thirty seconds to decide whether to bet his tens. My sense is if one bullet-raised (and the thirty seconds would have given one the time to plan this), he'd bullet fold. It's $160 to win $460, and since poster was planning to call anyway, there's a sense in which it's only $80 to win $460. This play seems to work often enough against the right opponent when the river is an overcard to the board.

[geormiet]

Hey chris-

I am *somewhat* loosish, (more so in live play because it's hard to adjust from 4 tabling online), but I also seem the recall being run over with the deck on that particular day /images/graemlins/cool.gif

You play at commerce often? Or anywhere else in LA for that matter? (i also like hustler...)

[geormiet]

It's my guess that a checkraise would have worked around 1/4 of the time. I like the situation because his range of hands is so narrow - TT, JJ, or a busted flush draw.

This guy was tight, and he was also stuck, down to maybe $500 by the end of the hand.

Would this fact make him more or less likely to call the c-r?

[SmileyEH]

I've decided that I hate a checkraise and its results-based thinking that is causing us to consider it.

We can agree that calling the river is +EV, therefore checkraising the river must have a greater EV than simply calling. Now the only hand where checkraising is betting than check calling is when your opponent has exactly TT. I am almost certain he is calling with anything better (ie; a jack), and folding anything worse.

I doubt you can be accurate enough in your read that he has TT, and even if he does have it he must fold it better than 25% of the time for checkraising to be a better alternative. Going through the 30 second routine almost makes it more likely that he will call a checkraise. Hes going to know you sense weakness therefore you will exploit that yada yada yada.

-SmileyEH

[andyfox]

I'd be less inclined to consider a river check-raise if I thought there was a chance he had a busted flush draw. But tightish guys don't 3-bet their flush draws agaisnt two opponents on the flop, and they don't take thirty seconds to consider betting a busted flush draw on the river. No, thirty seconds and then a bet from him means a hand of some value. I'm not a great reader, but I said "pocket tens" as soon as I read your thirty seconds sentence. The reason why I consider it might well work is that his hand seemed so clearly to be pocket tens: no 3-bet pre-flop, a 3-bet with an overpair on the flop, and just a call when the 9 pairs on the turn. Then a long, hard thinking
before betting for value.

As for being stuck, I think, in general, it makes tightish guys tighter, and loosish guys looser. He wouldn't have needed the thirty seconds if he wasn't stuck. And only a tightish guy would consider down $500 (at the end of the hand) as being "stuck" in a 40-80 game.

[andyfox]

"Now the only hand where checkraising is betting than check calling is when your opponent has exactly TT. I am almost certain he is calling with anything better (ie; a jack), and folding anything worse."

It's just so unlikely he has anything else. Pre-flop, he 3-bets with a big pocket pair. Being tightish, he likely fold J-Ts. I suppose he might have quad nines (what a terrible phrase, sorry Mason), but he might have slow-played a set on the flop, draw-rich as it was.

I see the argument against the check-raise, but I don't think it's results based thinking. His hand fairly screams out pocket tens. And that's to me the first time I read it, and I'm not great at this.