First hand of a $10+1 on Party

[lastchance]

I get AcKc on button. CO-2 and CO limp, I raise to 100. BB, CO-2, CO call.

Flop comes Jc, 4c, 6h.

BB checks, CO-2 checks, CO goes all-in.

I'm getting about 3 to 2 on my call.

With 2 overs and a flush draw, combined with how bad I think my opponent's holdings could be, I call, right?

[willperkins]

I fold. You are probably behind right now, which means you probably have to hit one of your 15 outs. You are getting 1.58 to one pot odds and you are 2.13 to one to hit one of your outs. The blinds are still very low, you still have lots of chips. I let it go.

IMHO

[lastchance]

I don't think I'm 2.13 to 1 to hit one of my outs, am I? (counting the overs, which I think are good 60-70% of the time)

[Awful]

He accidentally ran it for 1 card to come (32 losses over 15 wins). His odds are correct if it's the turn. 9 absolute wins plus 70% of 6 outs is 13.2 outs, making you even money to hit and win in the next 2 cards.

[microbet]

15 outs 2 times.

What are your chances of missing
32/47 * 31/46 = .459
chances of hitting
1 - .459 = .541

expressed as odds
1/(X + 1) = .541
X = .848

I'm pretty sure about the .541 part, and if I'm right about the odds part you are .848 to 1 to hit or about 5 to 6 if you like round numbers.

edit: I took too long doing the math and got beat to the punch. I was just taking the 15 outs and doing the calcs. It is certainly better to just use a fraction of the outs.

[Jman28]

I'd call. You should almost always be a favorite here. Might even be up against a worse flush draw.