Rockets river top set, but villians go nuts??? [Archive]

View Full Version : Rockets river top set, but villians go nuts???

MisterKing

02-17-2005, 10:09 PM

I thought I was ahead for sure when the flop fell... though the cap by MP1 put me on check/call fearing a set (probably 7's or 9's). Nonetheless, AK was a real possibility, as were a few goofy draws, so I didn't feel folding the turn was a solid option.

My question - what's your line on the rivah?

When the Ad fell on the river, I thought I'd made a winner for sure, and would be paid for it as well. Thus the cap. In retrospect, I think a call may have been highest EV. MP3 clearly LOVED his hand, whatever it was, and MP1, being the aggressor on the flop and turn, didn't seem to be going anywhere. Nobody was folding to my cap bet at this point, so it was purely for value.

So I'm stuck with whether I was in fact getting good value on a 4-bet. There are a few hands that beat me, including straight (possible) and backdoor flush (less likely), and these will never fold. The QQ, KK, 99, and 77 hands probably call down, and KQ/AK are coming along as well. There are more hands that I can beat that are calling than beat me, and the ones I beat seem to be more likely as well. This means capping was right, yes?

If you're not capping the river here, I presume you're calling. Comments on all streets welcome/appreciated. Reads were: MP1 34% VP$IP, 6% PFR, AF-TOT of 1, MP3 new to the table but apparently quite LAG-gy.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets,Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 25.50 BB

Buck_65

02-17-2005, 10:26 PM

I don't think I cap this river, but maybe that's too weak. Either way, this is a fairly rare situation. The difference between just calling the river 3-bet and capping will make just about no difference in your long term results.

I'm not trying to disregard your hand as irrelevent, that certainly is not my goal here. I just think you would be better off finding hands that are representative of common situations. You do have far more posts than I do, so perhaps you just don't have any questions about the more common scenarios with less insane action.

Nice hand, though.

Harv72b

02-17-2005, 10:41 PM

It's tough without more of a read on MP3.

The problem is that if he is LAGgy, it's very possible that he backed into the nut flush after flopping top pair with KXs. It's far less likely that he has the straight as he would have made that on the turn, but didn't raise there. It's also relatively unlikely that he only rivered aces up, simply because you can account for all 3 of the other aces (not impossible, of course, but pretty unlikely).

I can definitely see the c/r (although I'd be more apt to bet out, as a lot of players would freeze up with a smaller set or 2 pair after seeing a third diamond hit), and folding isn't even remotely an option. But I'd also have just called the 3-bet.

Hulk Hogan

02-17-2005, 11:19 PM

I'd call a 3 bet but be almost certain I was a loser on the river. The A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes the two big draws.

me454555

02-18-2005, 12:22 AM

Whats up w/the flop checkraise? Just bet out. I like capping here but then again I can see calling the 3 bet too.