99 bluff attempt vs. PFR...advisable?

[Harv72b]

My first orbit at the table. UTG+1 is an LP-P buddy. MP1 I have no history against, but his play against me a couple hands earlier suggested that he could be intimidated into folding a decent hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero bets, intending to fold to a raise...

[Freakin]

I would raise or fold preflop, and probably fold the flop.

[Nate tha' Great]

3-bet preflop.

This is the wrong sort of flop to make a play at. The raise is spewing.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise or fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd normally do the same. I was caught in a weird spot here, as I knew that UTG wasn't going to fold whatever he was playing whether it was 1 more or 3 more back to him, and I had 4 players yet to act behind me (including the blinds) who could overcall &amp; provide me with set value.

I probably should still have 3-bet rather than cold call; I froze up a little on the hand, as I don't think I've ever been in this particular situation before.

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
I knew that UTG wasn't going to fold whatever he was playing whether it was 1 more or 3 more back to him

[/ QUOTE ]

How sure are you of this read? Cause the raise is for value &amp; isolation, IMO, which loses some of it's effect if you are confident that you will have another caller. If you are that confident in your read, then you've got a great buddy.

Freakin

[Harv72b]

This is based on a relatively small sample size (~90 hands at the time of this one), but UTG+1 has a VPIP &gt; 80, and I can't recall ever seeing him fold to a PFR after limping in first. So maybe not enough to be certain, but enough to make it probable that he'd call 2 more cold if I 3-bet.

[WillMagic]

3-bet preflop or fold...cold-calling is weak.

Fold the flop, please...your raise is atrocious.

Will

[Harv72b]

As it turned out, MP1 did check/raise the turn, and I did fold it right there.

My thinking on the flop raise: If UTG+1 didn't catch a piece of the flop, he'll probably fold there for 2 more (with an underpair he'd probably call, with something like a backdoor straight draw it's iffy). MP1 I was still feeling out, but I thought it likely that he would fold the turn if he was still holding an unimproved AQ or ATs, or possibly fold AJ, TT or QQ under the same conditions. But I honestly didn't know--my gut was just telling me that this play would work.

I did know that I definitely had a pair of nines and a backdoor flush draw, I didn't want to fold, and I did want it heads up if another diamond came on the turn. So it clearly seemed that raising&gt;calling, even if folding looked like the obvious choice.

FWIW, I later saw MP1 show down an A8o that he raised first in from UTG+1. I tend to believe that I actually did have the best hand on the flop here.

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
..his play against me a couple hands earlier suggested that he could be intimidated into folding a decent hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would have been a truly great sentence had it read, "his play against me a couple hands earlier intimated that he could be intimidated into folding a decent hand.

Having said that, raise preflop. Fold flop.