Stealing with a medium stack against a short stack and a big stack

[ilya]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t3300)
Hero (t1310)
SB (t660)
BB (t2730)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.


An interesting spot. How would you decide what to do?

ICM only goes so far in this hand, I think.

[zaphod]

I have recently made a bunch of 4'th places so don't listen to me.
Here is how i would think while playing:
"What, a pocket pair: I have to push. Why is BB thinking.. Hope he is not calling.. Opps he called with AK suited. Well, i dont have to loose a coinflip every time. Opps, he got his Ace or King/Flush/Straight and I finished 4'th position again. Hey, why is short stack laughing of me!! , ok i win it back in the next SNG..."


Seriously though i think you have to push here, you only hate it when somebody calls with an higher pocketpair.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I have recently made a bunch of 4'th places so don't listen to me.
Here is how i would think while playing:
"What, a pocket pair: I have to push. Why is BB thinking.. Hope he is not calling.. Opps he called with AK suited. Well, i dont have to loose a coinflip every time. Opps, he got his Ace or King/Flush/Straight and I finished 4'th position again. Hey, why is short stack laughing of me!! , ok i win it back in the next SNG..."


Seriously though i think you have to push here, you only hate it when somebody calls with an higher pocketpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm all for being aggressive, some have even called me wreckless on the bubble. But no way in hell am i pushing vs big stack when I have 3x BB w/ a small pocket pair, and SB has 1.5x BB. Is the BB going up in the next 3 hands? If not, i think u wait for a PREMIUM hand, and maximize EV by letting small stack get blinded away.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have recently made a bunch of 4'th places so don't listen to me.
Here is how i would think while playing:
"What, a pocket pair: I have to push. Why is BB thinking.. Hope he is not calling.. Opps he called with AK suited. Well, i dont have to loose a coinflip every time. Opps, he got his Ace or King/Flush/Straight and I finished 4'th position again. Hey, why is short stack laughing of me!! , ok i win it back in the next SNG..."


Seriously though i think you have to push here, you only hate it when somebody calls with an higher pocketpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm all for being aggressive, some have even called me wreckless on the bubble. But no way in hell am i pushing vs larger stack when I have 3x BB w/ a small pocket pair, and SB has 1.5x BB. Is the BB going up in the next 3 hands? If not, i think u wait for a PREMIUM hand, and maximize EV by letting small stack get blinded away.

[/ QUOTE ]

edit: I defineteley think it depends on your read of the players, and buy-in. But i play the low buyins where people WILL call you push w/ T9s, Q9s, and other CRAP cards. Also, if the big stacks are getting careless against one another, then i definetely try and sneak into 2nd. What level is this?

This brings up a point which i always debate in my haed, would i rather go up against SB calling me w/ AK/T9s or big stack w/ AK/T9s? T9s is a favorite against 66 btw... I would think SB because i'm still alive if he beats me... However, if i beat the big stack, i'l actually have a shot at first... but my intuition may be incorrect...

After messing around w/ ICM, i see that if u push and beat larger stack u go from 22% to 32%... And if u beat small stack u go from 22% to 30%... The significance of this? I dunno... now i'm starting to ramble, somone please chime in

[se2schul]

You didn't say what UTG did.

[ilya]

Obviously it's a fold if UTG plays.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t3300)
Hero (t1310)
SB (t660)
BB (t2730)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.


An interesting spot. How would you decide what to do?

ICM only goes so far in this hand, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya,

Ok, let's see. You are in a poor position to steal b/c the SB is liable to call you at any point either now or in the future. The blinds are so big you aren't really guaranteed 4th at all. Plus, it's probably in the other stacks' interst to keep the short stack alive so they could even just give him some blinds to keep him alive. I think pushing here is a good move. You have some FE to just pick up the blinds and your hand runs quite well against the range of hands the SB may call with (runs decently vs. the BB range of hands too I'd imagine). I'm not sure you'll have a better opportunity to take a shot at the blinds and/or double up to give yourself a shot at first. However, I may be underestimating how likely it is the SB will call your push and/or how likely it is the SB witll push and be called by the BB.

I'm curious as to what play you have in mind here and why you want to make it.

Yugoslav
(I can even see an argument for calling, but....I'm not sure it's convincing enough)

[BigDave]

Push this and be happy to steal the blinds. SB can be thinking I have good odds I should call this, or could be thinking "My hand is crap, hopefully BB calls and I sneak in".

I personnaly would not mind SB calling. If they wake up with a hand, so be it. I am ahead more often then behind.

I wouldn't mind having both call me. If I win the hand, I pick up a huge pot, and I am back in it to win it. If BB wins the hand, I am in the $$. BB will probably have good cards if he gets involved, so that will help taking out SB. If SB wins and I beat BB, I will win 1300 chips, about the same that I started the hand with.

Sometimes BB will wake up with a hand, or you get outdrawn, or just lose to both and you get fourth doing it. You will steal 600 often, and it looks and feels real good on your stack.

I think this is one of those playing for first type of hands. This is a big oppurtunity to get back into the game, by stealing the blinds, by doubling through BB, by winning a huge 3200 pot, or by at least beating one of them if they both call. Include in this that sometimes you will lose the hand but still get in the money, and I think it is worth the risk.

[BigDave]

If you call, you hope SB pushes, BB calls, and then BB checks it all the way down if you don't improve. Some BB will do this, others will try to push you off the hand.

This is interesting though. If I was willing to push and get all my chips in, I could almost guarantee getting SB all in and BB involved. Unless SB doesn't complete (I just don't see this happening), this would work out pretty good. If SB does push and BB puts me all in pre-flop or during the hand, I would call no matter what.

This also opens the door for a Mr HangerOnner guy special, in which he also calls, BB pushes, you call and he folds his hand, watching you bust. Going out like that can sting a little bit more then usual.

The worst thing about calling is that you give up a chance to pick up 600 chips uncontested, which is pretty big this late in the game. I still would push here.

[The Yugoslavian]

Yeah, I had a lot of the same thoughts evaluating a call. I also just don't think it's that great in the final analysis though. Of course, if I'm missing just one piece of the puzzle it could easily become a much better play.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Im allin here and I don't think its close. There is no guarantee whatsoever that the SB comes in 4th if you don't play this hand.

[ilya]

My calcs seem to show that it IS close, although even I am not sure I like my assumptions.

Fold, SB folds:

3300

1310
460
2930

0.2283

Fold, SB pushes, wins pot:

3300

1310
1320
2070

0.1971

Fold, SB pushes, loses to BB:

3300

1310
0
3390

0.2727


Let's say if I fold, SB pushes 60%, always gets called, and wins about 50%

0.4*0.2283 + 0.6*0.5*0.1971 + 0.6*0.5*0.2727 = 0.09132 + 0.05913 + 0.08181 = 0.23226




Push, win blinds:

3300

1910
460
2330

0.2727

Push, SB calls, BB folds, I win:

3300

2370
0
2330

0.3218

Push, SB folds, BB calls, I win:

3300

2820
460
1420

0.3274

Push, SB calls, BB folds, I lose:

3300

650
1720
2330

0.112

Push, SB calls, BB calls, I win both:

3300

3280
0
1420

0.3606

Push, SB calls, BB calls, pot goes SB>me>BB:

3300

1300
1980
1420

0.1949

Push, SB folds, BB calls, BB wins:

0.00

Push, SB calls, BB calls, pot goes SB>BB>me

0.00

Push, SB calls, BB calls, pot goes BB>SB>me or BB>me>SB

0.20


Let's say SB will fold 80% of his hands, hoping that the BB will bust me...and the BB will call with the top 20% of hands also

Let's say if the BB has a top 20% hand and the SB calls, the BB will also call anyway. This will happen 20% of the time that SB calls

Ok, so the SB will call 20% of the time
The BB will call 20% of the 80% of the time that the SB doesn't call, and 20% of the time that the SB does call.
So, one of the two will call 0.2 + 0.2*0.8 = 0.36 = 36% of the time.
They will both call 4% of the time, or 20% of the times that SB calls.

Folding equity is 0.64*0.2727

Equity against SB only is 0.20*0.8*x*0.3218 + 0.20*0.8*(1-x)*0.112, where x = win% against SB's hands/100

Equity against BB only is 0.16*y*0.3274 + 0.16*(1-y)*0, where y = win% against BB's hands/100

Equity against SB and BB is 0.20*0.2*z*0.3606 + 0.20*0.2*s*0.1949 + 0.20*0.2*b*0.20, where z = win% of beating both, s = % of SB>me>BB, and b = % of BB>me>SB + BB>SB>me

So, let's do this for top 20% of hands

Equity against SB only for 66:

0.20*0.8*0.496*0.3218 + 0.20*0.80*0.504*0.112 = 0.0255 + 0.0090 = 0.0345

Equity against BB only for 66:

0.16*0.496*0.3274 + 0.16*0.504*0 = 0.0260

Equity against SB and BB is:

0.20*0.2*0.33*0.3606 + 0.20*0.2*0.17*.1949 + 0.2*0.2*0.33*.20 = 0.005 + 0.001 + 0.003 = 0.009

Total equity is:

0.64*0.2727 + 0.0345 + 0.0260 + 0.009 = .2440

[curtains]

Does this ICM take into account who will pay the Blinds first when both players are short stacked?
btw it may technically be close, but I know for sure that I'd move allin. However if I had like 900 in chips I'd fold and try to grovel.

[ilya]

I see your point, but it's not like I MUST play on my next BB...I'll have 2xbb after posting. Plus, there are no big stacks between me and the other short stacks, so the danger of him getting his blinds back is decreased.

[curtains]

I wasnt making a point actually, I just noticed that it doesnt take that into account, and it does sometimes matter.

[ilya]

i think my position is decent actually. yes i have to pay the blinds before him but he's the one who has to push through/into the big stacks if he wants to steal.

[curtains]

Yeah really that comment had nothing to do with the current hand. I just think its funny that if you do an ICM calculation and put the players as 4999-4999-1-1, the 1's both have the same % share, but we know that whoever is blind first is underdog.
This is an extreme example but this stuff happens frequently where one player is in charge because they are blind last.

[The Yugoslavian]

Ugh. I've had too long a day to try and decipher any more of that drivvle.

Ok, so I think the SB calls your allin more than 20% of the time.

I also think the BB here will be a bit tighter than top 20% when the SB folds.

I think this will improve your push $EV.

I think the chips you accumulate may be worth more than ICM gives them credit for.

But, perhaps the most important thing is:
I *definitely* don't think the BB calls the SB push every time, that's ridiculous (and inflating your fold $EV #s).

Yugoslav

[curtains]

BB should call SB push every time, its only like 240 more right?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

BB should call SB push every time, its only like 240 more right?

[/ QUOTE ]

What should happen and what will happen are two separate things. There is *no* way you'll see BB call here 100% of the time. 90% *maybe*. Frankly, I think it's very likely even lower.

Plus, the thinking BB would also at least consider the EV of chips he can steal by prolonging the bubble (he has good stealing position relative to the small stack).

But, I'm tired and not in your league.

In your opinion, what makes pushing here *clearly* better than folding? Especially if you perhaps think the SB will be called *every time* he pushes (which he will a very large % of the time).

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I dont know, I just think it's right. BTW I don't believe that ICM is 100% accurate all the time. There are more factors than that.
If ICM is so accurate than why do I bother entering any tournament? My EV is exactly $200 from the $215 buyins!! I'm just giving away 15 bucks!