Flopped set, turn play?

[Allan]

Here is a hand I watched last weekend from a 5-10 kill game.

Hero is first MP with TT and reraises UTG+3 to to get it heads up. UTG+3 is generaly a tight-aggressive player and hasn't played a hand in an hour and a half. Everyone folds including blinds and UTG+3 only calls. Heads-up to flop with 7 sb in the pot.

Flop is Ah Jc Td. UTG+3 bets out MP raises UTG+3 reriases MP 4 bets.....

Turn is [Ah Jc Td] Qs. UTG bets out....

How are you playing the remainder of the hand?


Allan

I would raise. Even if the guy caught a straight, it is almost certainly with AK or KK, and you have many outs. Additionally, a raise represents a made straight (he'll put you on AK), and he may dump a set of queens to a bet if the river brings a blank. If you are re-raised, call and hope for the board to pair. AQ will call your raise and then dump if no A and no Q show up. AJ will do the same, though AJ is less likely here. If you do run up against a made straight and fail to make your outs, you still get advertisement points, which may be worth the 3 bets over the course of the session. To me, a raise seems to be a pretty straightforward decision.

[Paul Talbot]

I would call it down from here, even if I made full as I could easily be up against a bigger set.

Regards,

Paul Talbot

You think our opponent would bet into a board like that with a set? Unlikely, but if he does, perfect! A *raise* tells him you have a straight, which is what you want him to think, while a *call* tells him he probably has a better hand and you are meekly trying to chase. I believe that calling is the worst move in this situation, weaker than folding. If you call, there is nothing the river can bring (short of the case 10) that leads you to believe you've got a better hand. Since you're planning on calling the river anyway, put that raise in on the turn. He might dump right there. He might be set up to dump on the river. He might diligently call you with AQ 2-pair, in which case you got more value. There are a million reasons to raise, and no sufficiently good reasons to call.

[Uston]

Allan-Let's discuss UTG+3's possible holdings.

AA-Bad news. You have one out and he's not folding.

KK (or any hand containing a king)-Of all the hands he could be losing to, this is the best scenario for MP. Raising the turn is only going to result in having to pay two extra bets to see the river.

JJ-Bad news. You have one out and he's not folding.

AQ, AJ-This is the only situation where you'd like to raise, especially if he'd make an incorrect fold, which I doubt he would.

AT-Similar to AQ and AJ, but in this case, folding to a turn raise would be more likely and more correct.

So I say "call."

[Daithi]

If he hasn't played a hand in as long as you say then I would put him on either AA, KK, AK, or AQ. With all the reraising on the flop I doubt it is AQ. So, at this point our hero is behind, and a raise will most likely accomplish nothing more than losing another big bet.

Based on the money in the pot I'd call and take a look at the river card. I'd probably be making a crying call on the river as well.

Uston, if he has:

1) AA, QQ, JJ - do you really think he would three-bet if he was raised? Think about it. He would believe he is up against a made straight if he was raised with a board like that. This is a fairly tight player, which in low limit generally means weak-tight. Most importantly: he might dump his set if the river brings a blank! AA, QQ, JJ would call your raise and then check to you on the river unless they made a boat. This way you're paying the *same* two bets to play out the hand, except in a situation more favorable to you.

2) AQ, AJ - if you can pin him on this hand, bet the farm! He has only 4 outs to win, plus 4 more kings for the chop.

3) AK, KK - this is what he has if he re-raises. Call to see if your outs come, and if they do not, call or fold to a river bet depending on your confidence in your assessment of this guy. Remember, this is a low-limit game; a 3-bet re-steal on the turn is extremely uncommon! If you were re-raised on the turn, and then bet into on a blank river, I might fold and save a bet.

[Uston]

There are a million reasons to raise, and no sufficiently good reasons to call.

Incorrect and hyperbolic is a bad combination. Would the possibility of his opponent having a king be a sufficiently good reason to call? Would the fact that most players will (correctly) not fold a set in a head-up pot be another sufficiently good reason? If his opponent isn't going to bet a set into this board, what will he bet with?

Now that I think about it, he does not have AA. AA would have 4-bet pre-flop, and so would KK. He just called. He most likely has AK or AQ.

The question is: if he *does* bet a set, and is raised, will he re-raise? My answer is emphatically "no". He will call and then check the river, opening up a possible steal opportunity. I know the steal is unlikely to succeeed. Either way, if you merely *call*, then there is a big chance that the only hand he will bet on the river will be a hand you can't beat. He will check/call AQ & AJ.

/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif I think TT is in deep trouble. There are many hands that will beat pocket-TT at this point. I would not put him on a two-pair hand (AJ, AQ, AT) I think he holds a higher set, or AK. Lots of money in the pot though /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif , but calling down is questionable. /forums/images/icons/confused.gif Raising would be an over-play. Laying down a set is hard, but with so many ways to be beaten here, and every one being very possible...I think I will fold. (not happy about it though /forums/images/icons/mad.gif )

[Allan]

Since it is heads up he might not 4 bet preflop hoping to gain extra bets on the expensive streets....just a thought....

Allan

[Allan]

you are a 39:18 dog to be against a hand that currently beats you, if you are beat you will be reraised and against 9 of these hands you are drawing to 1 out. This guy hasn't played a hand in number of orbits and the pot is HU and enormous. There is no way this isn't going to the showdown.

Allan

[bad beetz]

I think AQ, AJ, AT are out of the question given post flop behavior. I think KK would have been 3 bet preflop, I think that is unlikely. AA may have smooth called as a deceptive heads up play. People this tight/weak don't 3 bet the flop with a set given that board.

I put him on KQs

[Clarkmeister]

Sure smells like AJ to me, with an outside shot at AQ or AK. Regardless, calling seems to be the better play, simply due to the fact that you really don't want to pay 3 bets to see the river, and that is guaranteed if he has a king. In addition, if he got cute and limped with AA or JJ, he isn't folding that either. Call the turn and river, with the intention of betting the river if checked to.

[Jim Roy]

The tight-aggro didn't reraise preflop. I've noticed that a lot of (weak) players play AK this way. Maybe AQ, AJ, KQ?

After a 3-bet preflop, and a capped flop, and a board of AQJT, I would think the man betting into you (who hasn't played a hand in an hour and a half) has a damn King.

The best play is to call the turn with the full house draw (and gutshot straight draw /forums/images/icons/ooo.gif ). If the board pairs, bet/raise. Otherwise, if the player is fairly predictable (and reasonable) I would fold. If I'm not sure (say the player has maniacal tendancies and might play two pair like that), I'd make a crying call.

[Allan]

[Clarkmeister]

[Allan]

my post isn't crystal clear, it should seem that UTG+3 open raised by the amount of bets in the pot preflop.....


Allan

[Allan]

If anyone is interested the river was a brick, something like the 3c.

UTG+3 showed AKc beating heros TT

Questions:

1) Are you pushing your AK this hard on that flop?
2) When someone you know to be generally tight and aggressive open raises from later EP with his first playable hand in 5 or 6 orbits or so, are you playing your TT against him?


Allan

[Jim Roy]

1) Are you pushing your AK this hard on that flop?

Yes. Runner clubs, gutshot nuts, not to mention top pair nut kicker. I'd play it pretty hard. If I had the AK I would play it the same way (not preflop), and also bet into the opponent on the turn.

2) When someone you know to be generally tight and aggressive open raises from later EP with his first playable hand in 5 or 6 orbits or so, are you playing your TT against him?

Yes. I have no problems playing TT vs anyone, especially in position.

In that particular hand, TT had way the best of it. The first player raises and then only calls the re-raise (a weak play with AK imo). At this point the TT player has a general idea of where EP is at (around AK or AQ usually) whereas the EP has no idea of what the TT player has. What is the first player going to do in the 2/3's of flops where he doesn't flop a pair? Donate a bunch more bets bluffing off chips? And how about the actual hand? TT flops a set and gets the AK to put in 4 bets on the flop with only the gutshot to hit (minus the full house redraw too). Yeah, I'll play TT heads up in position no problem.

Question: are you, then, prepared to dump your 10-10 and your entire pre-flop investment (could be a couple small bets) if the flop brings a Q, K, or A? That is, without any funky flop situations like JQK or AKQ suited? What are the chances of the flop showing A, K, or Q?

[Daithi]

Any pair against AK is a slight favorite (according to Doyle Brunson's Super System). So if I have a pair I will often raise to get HU against an early raiser. I then feel pretty good about my chances as long as there isn't an A or K on the flop.