AA on the button. Fold this river?

[Grease]

I just got Poker Tracker working, so no reads other than they weren't loco or playing every hand. This was my first orbit.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 folds, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

[brettbrettr]

Nope, I call. I expect to lose, but I expect to win enough to call.

[Fat Nicky]

call

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[MyssGuy]

In order for folding to be correct, you'd have to be right over 90% of the time (you're getting 13.25 to 1 to call). I'd call this hand.

[Redeye]

I think this is definately a call. Sometimes when the board pairs on the turn or river you see players betting out taking a stab at the pot, in these situations I almost always raise unless I know the player is tight-passive. In a situation like this where the top card pairs on the river and someone bets out its almost always because he's afraid of it checking through. If it were the 8, or 2 pairing and it were HU and the player bet out I would probably have raised and folded to a 3-bet, although I don't know if thats always correct.

[QTip]

I would say folding this river is a bad leak.

[Grease]

I mean, it seemed pretty obvious he had a 10. I called expecting to lose, but I realized that if he had a 10, he may very well have gone for the c/r, so that along with what everyone else said convinced me to call. He had J10, MHING.

[brettbrettr]

It doesn't matter that its not good here. What matters is that more than 1/14 times some yahoo will bet the scare card, and his friend will call with the 8.

[QTip]

Grease:

I don't want to assume anything because I haven't really spoken with you much. So...if you already know this, don't take it as an insult. I just learned how to judge types of calls about 3 weeks ago. This pot comes to you 13.25BB and you close the action for 1BB (closing the action is valuable because you don't have to worry about a raise). The only this I don't like is 1 overcaller already. However, with AA, I'm not too worried about 1 overcaller.

Anyway. 1/13.25 is 7.5% You only have to win this scenario 8% of the time to show a profit. Do you think that 8 times out of a 100 you're good here (i.e. someone doesn't have a T, rather top pair or bluffing)? I do.

[Grease]

I realize how small of a time I have to be correct here in order for it to be +EV. This was a "just making sure" kind of post, as I was fairly confident it was correct, but I took a month long break while I figured out how to work PartyPoker on terrible Scottish computers and wanted to make sure my game is still solid. It's cool bro, no offense taken.

[QTip]

good deal..

[spydog]

It's tough to swallow when doing the correct thing means you are wrong 90% of the time, but that's just poker.

[syphlix]

i think i mite call this just about every time... esp against passive players... but don't think i wouldn't be grumbling under my breath as i did so /images/graemlins/blush.gif

against an player w/ high postflop agression, i *mite* try for a raise... since i think most agressive players who hit top pair on the flop woulda popped me for a C/R on the flop then led the turn, or at least the c/r on the turn...

well... yea... i guess i mean that it's read-dependent.. for me at least... though it's more often a call than a raise... and it's ALMOST NEVER a fold for me...