Key Bubble hand

[Elem100]

Hello, since this is basically my first post forgive me if i've broken some etiquette I dont know about yet etc and dont flame ta /images/graemlins/tongue.gif (In a sentence, I play 10 and 20$ 6-way sngs on UB, studying maths at college). Please let me know what you think of this hand: (Havnt got the converter yet, soon)...

20$ sng, 3-way now. BB is t100 (what does the t stand for?)
Hero in sb, t3200
Villian in bb, t1800
Player-x on button, t1000

Hero has Ad Qc

Button folds
Hero raises to 300
Villian pauses for 2 seconds, then calls.

Flop: Qd Jc 9c

Hero bets 400
Villian thinks for about 5 seconds then goes all in for 1500

Hero? (I folded after much deliberation).

In my mind the argument for calling:

-Villian may be raising thinking my underpot bet displays weakness.
-Villian is an aggressive player
-Unlikely he has the nuts, he has always slow played them.
-A10,Q10,J10,10-10 all likely
-To him, it probably looks unlikely I can call.
-It doesnt feel like he wants a call.

On the other hand:

-I will still have 2500 if I fold, and I feel I am better than the other 2 players, and can afford to wait for a safer chance. The button in particular is predictable.

-He could well be on a open ended straight and flush draw, which, while, I would still have odds to call (especially with Qc), I feel I can outplay him in other hands and dont want a coinflip.

-Once or twice before, I've underbet the pot then raised all in when someone raised, and I had the best hand, he might have noticed this.

-He has only gone all-in once or twice before, and every time he had a strong hand. So 99, JJ, (QQ), KK seem plausible. In particular 99 feels consistent with his pause preflop.

In the end I folded. Now I'm wishing I'd called, if only to see what he had to learn something from it. Does anyone have a better idea than betting 400?

[jskills]

Three handed poker - you have top pair / top kicker, back door nut straight, back door flush, even a straight flush draw, plus you have him well covered in chips. You have 700 in the pot already.

All the reasons you list for calling are very valid.

This to me, is an easy call. Even if you lose, you're still in second place and would be back on top with one double up.

Let's think about his hand. Yes 99 is possible and you'd be in trouble if he had it. However, he might reraise preflop if he held it. This would certainly be true if held held JJ or QQ no? Would he call the preflop raise with KT? It would be an extremely tough call.

You're in too good shape to fold here.

So did you win the tournament? At least you were in the money already ...

[johnnybeef]

welcome elem

[ QUOTE ]
(what does the t stand for?)

[/ QUOTE ]

tournament chips...instead of $


regarding your play...if you feel strongly that you can outplay the other two, an all in will leave you with 1400. you will still be in 2nd place. against an aggro this is a pretty easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone have a better idea than betting 400?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. i like a pot size bet. this puts the villain in either a fold or push position which is win win for you. on one hand he will fold and you will take down a decent sized pot . if he pushes, you will be getting 9:1 on your call which if you will lose you will still be in 2nd.

[Elem100]

Tournament chips!!! I spent ages trying to work that out /images/graemlins/smile.gif


Thanks for the replies guys. I wasnt in the money already actually (6-way pays 2). I finished second losing a coinflip with 10-10 to overcards to the same villian (which just goes to show I should have accepteed fate on this hand, taking the bubble on 5:1 chip ratios heads up would have been a sure thing). I think I should have bet pot now I like that play of yours johnny, make my decision easy if he pushes.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
Three handed poker - you have top pair / top kicker, back door nut straight, back door flush, even a straight flush draw . .

[/ QUOTE ]

and don't forget the back-back-BACK door runner-runner river quads, either.

[iMsoLucky0]

Another thing to consider here is that if you call and win you have a very good chiplead vs the other player. The blinds aren't exactly small compared to the stacks (average of 20x BB), so there isnt' really alot of room to outplay anyone, unless you just plan on running over them when the blinds get bigger.

I think that your equity against his range of hands here is definitely +40% (and I would say closer to 50-60%), which makes it an easy call.

You also would still have a considerable amount of chips left if you call and lose, and that should also not be discounted.

On a side note, I have a question. What are the payouts in these 6 max top 2 get paid tourneys? I.E. what % for first and what % for second?

[Elem100]

70% and 30% respectively.

So for a 10 dollar tourney 1 rake the gain is +31 for first, +7 for second, -11 for 3-6th. So losing the heads up is a big screwup, which is why I spend as much time playing heads up as I do sngs. (The blinds are typically 50-100 with stacks of 3k at the last two).

[curtains]

easy call because your hand is too strong.