Pot Equity

[QTip]

I also posted this in the probability forum..but I don't know how many of you check that forum, so I wanted to post it here as well....hope no one minds.

I just download PokerStove, and I'm starting to mess with it. I found this statement at their website.

"The values generated are all-in equity values. This is not the chance that a hand will win the pot. Rather it is the fraction of the pot that a hand will win on average over many repeated trials, including split pots. The equity for a hand is calculated by dividing the number of 'pots' that the hand won by the number outcomes considered."

I thought when we talked about pot equity, it was the number of times I'm good in the hand...looks like I many have this wrong.

So, if I have 75% equity in a hand, I can't say I'm going to win 3 out of 4 times? If not, I'm not sure how to apply pot equity to a hand.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
So, if I have 75% equity in a hand, I can't say I'm going to win 3 out of 4 times? If not, I'm not sure how to apply pot equity to a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what pot equity is. You will win 75% of hands with X flop against opponents with Y range of cards, assuming you go to showdown. It also means that you have an "ownership" in 75% of the bets that go into the flop on that street.

Have you read SSH yet? Pot equity is covered in quite good detail in it.

Rob

[QTip]

Read SSHE? I've memorized it. It's applying the concepts I've memorized that's hurting me /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I only remember about 2 pages on this topic talking about how it can help to better decide when to call or raise as opposed to pot odds or implied odds helping to call or to fold.

However, what's this PokerStove website talking about then?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Read SSHE? I've memorized it. It's applying the concepts I've memorized that's hurting me /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I only remember about 2 pages on this topic talking about how it can help to better decide when to call or raise as opposed to pot odds or implied odds helping to call or to fold.

However, what's this PokerStove website talking about then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a slight difference, but one that doesn't make a huge difference in application.

What pokerstove is saying is this:

When the hand results are run over thousands of times, you will win 75% of the bets that go into the pot. Since some of the time you will split and you will win a portion of the pot in those instances, you get a certain ownership in the pot from that that doesn't necessarily relate to your chance of winning the whole pot.

Does that make sense?

Rob

[chief444]

It's saying that if all of the hands went to showdown (which they obviously won't always), you have X amount of pot equity against that range. So yes, it's saying exactly that if you have 75% pot equity if you show down against all of the hands/ranges entered you will win 75% of the time. That is pot equity.

[DMBFan23]

basically, it calculates your equity if you see all 5 cards. it won't be totally accurate for hands like pocket pairs which will often have to check fold when they don't hit a set on the flop and would have hit a set on a later street. you'll play hands much differently than some pokerstove equities would lead you to believe, but it's still a good tool.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
So yes, it's saying exactly that if you have 75% pot equity if you show down against all of the hands/ranges entered you will win 75% of the time. That is pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. It's saying you'll win close to 75% of the time, but the extra money going into your pocket when you split will help bump your "pot ownership" to 75%.

For all practical purposes, you can say that you'll win 75% of the time, though, I think.

Rob

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
basically, it calculates your equity if you see all 5 cards

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, pokerstove is virtually useless in calculating pre-flop pot equity percentages for limit holdem. It is more useful in flop and turn equity percentages.

[chief444]

I guess if I'm going to try to explain something I should be more careful with the teminology. You're right, there is a difference between "winning 75% of the time" and "having 75% pot equity". Thanks for clarifying Entity.

[QTip]

Ahh...this is starting to make sense.

So..how do you generally calculate your pot equity when you're in a game (obviously don't have time to pop open pokerstove). I guess you would only do this on the turn or river.

Take the number of card that you're safe having land on the river and divide by the # of cards left?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
So..how do you generally calculate your pot equity when you're in a game (obviously don't have time to pop open pokerstove). I guess you would only do this on the turn or river.

Take the number of card that you're safe having land on the river and divide by the # of cards left?


[/ QUOTE ]

yep, it's as simple as that to get a close enough figure.

[DMBFan23]

games are usually too fast paced to do it at the table...it's easiest on the turn, when there's only one card to come. I think that's why detailed analysis away from the table helps so much, it makes the table decisions easier.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
yep, pokerstove is virtually useless in calculating pre-flop pot equity percentages for limit holdem. It is more useful in flop and turn equity percentages.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you are confusing your terms here. PokerStove is excellent at calcuating preflop pot equity. It his horrible at calculating preflop expected value. Which is what I think you were trying to say.

- Andrew

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStove is excellent at calcuating preflop pot equity

[/ QUOTE ]

It is excellent, but there is not much use to this in limit holdem.

[QTip]

No...that's not what I was trying to say because I don't know the difference between PF equity and PF EV...any help?

[droidboy]

PokerStove is excellent at calcuating preflop pot equity

It is excellent, but there is not much use to this in limit holdem.

I never said otherwise. I was just correcting your terminology mix-up. Equity and expected value are two very different things. PokerStove computes equity, not expected value. Expected value is what you need to know in order to make the correct play, not equity.

- Andrew

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Expected value is what you need to know in order to make the correct play, not equity.

- Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume your talking about PF play and not turn play here...