AK turn nuts slowplay?

[QTip]

OK...just need help seeing if I might the correct choices here. I'll give my thought processes as we go along.

CO and BB are 2 of the big reasons I'm sitting in this game, fish calling stations. MP1 is the only other TAP in the game. I know he knows I am too. (Don't know if Jack_Sarang is a 2+2er, but if so, Jack...shut your trap at the table. Talking about pot odds and critizing the fish's play...ruined the only table that was worth playing at this morning). Anyway...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Jack bets into me on the flop, so I'm thinking he limped in with KJos and wants me to protect for him, I oblige because I want the button, buy some out and a possibly a free card. I was afraid of 2 things:

1. Getting three bet; however, I didn’t think Jack would do that with a pair of Jacks.
2. The calling station doing what he does….cold calling and not giving me the button.

Calling station doesn’t give me the button…darn
I get 3 bet…darn

That sucked…

I now put Jack on maybe TJs…or just making a mistake still with Kjos…

Turn: (12.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Man…did I just get lucky! I have nuts at this moment. I started to think about slowplaying so that BB and CO give me more money. They would be in with any straight draw or even T2os….perhaps that Q gave them a low straight and they’ll raise, and I can then reraise. The only thing that I didn’t like about this play was that the pot was big, and it might be smart to protect here. However, the only draw to beat my straight was 2 pair or current trips. ..I couldn’t see anyone folding that, so I decided to just call and hope for someone else to raise….just callers, I don’t mind.

River: (16.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Jacks checks…I’m pretty sure he’s got KJ now and is afraid that one of us has a queen. Of course, I’m not letting this get checked through…However, if he bet, I was just going to go for overcallers anyway. Again, we don’t generally want overcallers with a big pot, but I this point, I had the nuts. If I raised, I could see the fish and Jack folding.

Your thoughts…

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

[Spidy]

Slowplaying is wrong here,

if an ace or a king falls, you can probably split the pot, if somebody has already a set (and I think that's the case with 3 callers (CO and BB cold calls)), then you have to drive out the remaining opponents (CO and BB), according to that: RAISE

[QTip]

Well...let me consider this because I thought the same thing to...protect! However...

On the turn, the pot is 15 BB when it gets to me. I raise and make the pot 17BB giving the callers 17/2 (1/8.5) odds.

Let's say someone has pocket 5s, they have 9 outs to a full house..3Ts, 3Js, and 33s and 2 outs to quads for a total of 11 outs or 1/3 odds to improve on a/8.5 pot odds...man...I'd raise if I were them...

Some has two pair, they have 6 outs to their full house for 1/6.5 odds..they're still good for a call.

I can't get them to make a mistake!

If they only have a pair, I want them to catch their 2 pair or trips.

So...maybe this was just smart play and not slowplaying at all.

Thoughts on this line of thinking?

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
Slowplaying is wrong here,

if an ace or a king falls, you can probably split the pot, if somebody has already a set (and I think that's the case with 3 callers (CO and BB cold calls)), then you have to drive out the remaining opponents (CO and BB), according to that: RAISE

[/ QUOTE ]

He is right. Raise. You are unlikely to get any action out of anyone on the river unless someone fills up or counterfeits your straight. Raise and let them call. You never know, someone might 3-bet you and then you can really start a party.

[bakku]

Gotta raise the turn.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]


Some has two pair, they have 6 outs to their full house for 1/6.5 odds..they're still good for a call.

I can't get them to make a mistake!

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they can't make a mistake. However, letting them pay 13:1 to see the river instead of 6.5:1 is your mistake!

[QTip]

Bear with my spydog and others here because I really want to understand this. If I'm wrong here, then I'm really missing an important concept (and since, so far, I'm all alone, I'm probably not understanding something). Let me give you my reasoning (which is not the original reasoning I used in this hand…I was slowplaying for customers but now I think the play was a good one for other reasons)

Let me refer to TOP page 71 (perhaps I’m misapplying the concept here..not doing so to prove any point)

I only gain when my opponent folds with correct odds to call. If he calls and has the correct pot odds, I lose in the long run even if I happen to win that pot. Over the long run his call has positive expectation. It will end up costing me money. I believe this applies no matter the odds I give him…if it’s +EV, it’s +EV, and I will lose money in the long haul.

To me, it appears that the correct play is to only call and not spew chips. If the board doesn’t pair on the river, I can go to war profitably.

[spydog]

Assume that $1000 fell from the sky and landed in the middle of the table before you started to play a hand. Stakes are 2/4. Everyone will have the correct odds to see the flop because of all that cash in the middle. 72o must see the flop. You are dealt AA. Do you just call because even if you raise everyone has the odds to call, even the guy with 72o? NO. You raise because each additional dollar going into the pot makes you money.

In your hand the pot swelled large enough to give people the odds to call. However, each additional dollar going into the pot on the turn is making you money because your equity is higher than anyone else.

Someone else can probably explain this better. It's an extremely important point that you must know!

[DMBFan23]

forget protecting, MP3 has shown us that either he

a) wants to go multiple bets on all streets
b) was raising a straight draw, and it's time to charge him.

in either case, I'm going to oblige him on the turn by raising. also there are backdoor flush draws that I need to make pay and possible slowplayed sets that will go nuts with me too.

[QTip]

Thanks for staying with me here as I try to grasp this...

I don't have a firm grip yet on equity and equity edge. I have a couple of posts in my favorites to understand this.

In this hand, would you agree with the statement that I only gain when my opponents fold to my turn raise? (if we knew that they had 2 pair or a set)

[QTip]

Thanks for the response Kev...would you please join spydog and I's conversation here. I'd like your comments as well.

Thanks.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
In this hand, would you agree with the statement that I only gain when my opponents fold to my turn raise? (if we knew that they had 2 pair or a set)


[/ QUOTE ]

QTIP,
you gain when they call your raise. My guess is that your pot equity is at least 60% at this point and that's being pessimistic. For every bet that goes into the pot, 60% of that $$$ is yours. Also, the pot is big so you don't mind winning it right now. The important thing to understand is you have an edge is equity, push it. If they call, you gain, even if they have the odds to call. If they fold you are that much closer to a nice sized pot.

[QTip]

I’ve been thinking about this, and now I’m really confused. I don’t understand TOP page 71 at all now.

I’m the best hand on the turn. Villain must improve to beat me. If he has trips, he will do so 1 out of every 3 times. How do I lose money in the long run since he’s calling +EV? How is this +EV to him? This doesn’t make sense to me…It seems like I could sit here and play this hand from the turn all day long and clean up. What is Slansky talking about on page 71 of TOP? Dude…this sucks…I hate being confused.

[QTip]

Thanks for the reply FatNick...

I think what I'm missing if the equity edge concept. There's only a small section of that in SSHE and I don't really see anything on it in TOP.

The strongest draw on me is trips, and I'm good 2 out of 3 times..does that mean I have 66% pot equity?

What if we knew 1 opponent had trips and the other had 2 clubs. Now I have several other cards to dodge. Does that hurt my pot equity?

Where can I go to learn about pot equity?

If this answer to this hand is based on pot equity, why would this seem to contradict my understanding of TOP page 71...?

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
The strongest draw on me is trips, and I'm good 2 out of 3 times..does that mean I have 66% pot equity?


[/ QUOTE ]

If someone has trips your equity is about 78%. 36 out of 46 cards in the deck that favor you.

[ QUOTE ]
What if we knew 1 opponent had trips and the other had 2 clubs. Now I have several other cards to dodge. Does that hurt my pot equity?


[/ QUOTE ]

Of course this hurts your pot equity, the more cards that can come on the river to beat your hand, the less pot equity you have.

From pokerstove:
Board: Jh Td 5c Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 58.3333 % [ 00.55 00.04 ] {AdKc}
Hand 2: 21.4286 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] {TsTh}
Hand 3: 20.2381 % [ 00.17 00.04 ] {AcJc}

In this example, one player has trips, the other has a flush draw, you're equity is 58%. Still favorable.

[ QUOTE ]
Where can I go to learn about pot equity?

If this answer to this hand is based on pot equity, why would this seem to contradict my understanding of TOP page 71...?

[/ QUOTE ]

from the top of my head all I can tell you is to re-read the pot equity section in SSH. I will re-read the section you speak of in TOP when I get home from work tonight.

[DMBFan23]

Qtip,

let's say there is set and a flush draw out there...the flush draw does indeed hurt your chances to win the pot, but since he is drawing, he'll also be putting money into the pot for you as well. the net result is that your relative chance of winning will probably even go up relative to the payoff - the flush draw will only hit one in 5, and some of his out are the set's outs anyway.

both he and the set are +EV to call because there is an amount in the pot that allows them sufficient overlay to make up for all the times they call and miss. if there were no money in the pot on the turn, calling would be incorrect for them.

but that's just the pot odds. they'd rather get free cards, because they are losing money on the bets that go in on the turn. they just don't lose enough to make calling incorrect (as they potentially could in no limit). so if you played this situation from the turn a billion times, you'd make money raising because they pay you for the right to draw out on you. they'd make money calling because they have odds from the pot that you all would start with if you started this from the turn. it's that magical pot that you guys would start with on the turn that would make this +EV for all three parties. but, you want money going in on the turn, even if they're right to call it. a large portion of that money that goes in on the turn goes into your pocket, and a large portion of what is currently in the pot is also yours.

it's hard to estimate pot equity sometimes, you may have 100 percent pot equity here, you may have something less vs. a flush draw and a set, or you may have a lot vers two sets of two pair. playing around at www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com) really helped me out.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Qtip,

let's say there is set and a flush draw out there...the flush draw does indeed hurt your chances to win the pot, but since he is drawing, he'll also be putting money into the pot for you as well. the net result is that your relative chance of winning will probably even go up relative to the payoff - the flush draw will only hit one in 5, and some of his out are the set's outs anyway.

both he and the set are +EV to call because there is an amount in the pot that allows them sufficient overlay to make up for all the times they call and miss. if there were no money in the pot on the turn, calling would be incorrect for them.

but that's just the pot odds. they'd rather get free cards, because they are losing money on the bets that go in on the turn. they just don't lose enough to make calling incorrect (as they potentially could in no limit). so if you played this situation from the turn a billion times, you'd make money raising because they pay you for the right to draw out on you. they'd make money calling because they have odds from the pot that you all would start with if you started this from the turn. it's that magical pot that you guys would start with on the turn that would make this +EV for all three parties. but, you want money going in on the turn, even if they're right to call it. a large portion of that money that goes in on the turn goes into your pocket, and a large portion of what is currently in the pot is also yours.

it's hard to estimate pot equity sometimes, you may have 100 percent pot equity here, you may have something less vs. a flush draw and a set, or you may have a lot vers two sets of two pair. playing around at www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com) really helped me out.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said

[QTip]

Pokerstove...I've not used a tool like this yet. I need to start..dude...you guess equity at 60% and was like 1% off...that's impressive. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Thanks for this example.

I'm excited to hear how you reconcile this concept and page 71 in TOP.

Thanks man...really appreciate the help.

[chief444]

Not raising the turn against MP1 who obviously likes what he has and two calling stations on a TJQ board is a pretty significant mistake in my opinion.

[youngin20]

your equity is through the roof. im no math whiz but its probably like a billion percent or something. you only slowplay if you can get more bets through overcalls which is unlikely considering the big pot, or your hand is weak and you will be better off to a scare card. RAISE. this is a key idea. at this point pretty much everyone is seeing the river. for god sakes raise. I also dont see how you can justify raising the flop as a better place than the turn. he bet into you after three betting, im pretty sure he is gonna 3bet again.

[QTip]

I'll say...thanks for the help guys...

OK...I've just reread a couple of pages in TOP. There are a couple of things that I missed that answer this question even though I don't understand one of his statements on page 71. Here's quotes from page 72.

"Therefore, when the pot is large - even though you are offering your opponents favorable odds - it's always correct to bet with the best hand."

"However, unless you have the pure nuts, you should give your opponent every opportunity to fold and make it as expensive as you can for him to call, even when by calling he is still getting favorable odds."

DARN IT!! I should have raised the turn!! Frickin idiot!!

Anyway... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Wtf is this all about on the previous page?

“But even when your hand is the best hand, you generally prefer that your opponent fold rather than call when the pot is large. The reason is that when you bet in a limit game and the pot is large, your opponent’s hand, though second best, is rarely so much of an underdog that he is not getting good enough odds to chase you. Hence, his calling you with good odds is a profitable play for him in the long run. Since he is correct to take the odds, you do not gain when he calls. You gain only when he folds and turns down those odds. When he calls, you lose even if you happen to win that particular pot; for over the long run his call has positive expectation. It will end up costing you money.”

[QTip]

for god sake, can I go back in time!?

I should have raised!!

DARN IT! Only God knows how many BB I passed up!

[chief444]

Every bet that goes into the pot is making you money.

Him calling is +EV for him because of the pot size. You would win more if he folded is all. But it doesn't mean you're losing money by betting.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Since he is correct to take the odds, you do not gain when he calls. You gain only when he folds and turns down those odds. When he calls, you lose even if you happen to win that particular pot; for over the long run his call has positive expectation. It will end up costing you money.”


[/ QUOTE ]

I think, and I highlight I think, he means that your hand loses value if they call, but if they do call, it is still not -EV, just a loss in some +EV.

I don't know though. That paragraph has confused me as well.

[chief444]

QTip,

As I said above, they're just saying that you would prefer him to fold as opposed to call. It doesn't mean that you're losing money by betting.

If you have 75% pot equity and he has 25% pot equity and you bet and he calls you will win an additional:
.75*2 = 1.5 BB's, 1.5 - your 1BB bet = +.5 BB's additional.
And he loses .25*2=.5, .5-1BB call = -.5 BB's.

But because the pot is so big he's clearly correct to call with 25% pot equity. But you're still making an additional .5 BB's on every bet you both put in. But if he folds incorrectly then you win 100% of a big pot instead of 75% which is way more than .5 BB's. Understand?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since he is correct to take the odds, you do not gain when he calls. You gain only when he folds and turns down those odds. When he calls, you lose even if you happen to win that particular pot; for over the long run his call has positive expectation. It will end up costing you money.”


[/ QUOTE ]

I think, and I highlight I think, he means that your hand loses value if they call, but if they do call, it is still not -EV, just a loss in some +EV.

I don't know though. That paragraph has confused me as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I see what you're saying. So...let me see if I can interpret.

"you do not gain when he calls" - It's better if he folds because sometimes he'll take some of you're money.

"It will end up costing you money" - not that you will lose money on your plays, but that you will not make as much as you normally would if he just folds all the time.

The villain's +EV or -EV call is interesting here. It would seem that if he has a -EV call, no matter how slight, you gain (as in make more money than when he folds)when he calls even though he may outdraw you a certain number of times.

Whereas, if it's a +EV call, you still make money, but not as much as if he folded all the time...so he costs you some money with his call but your still good. It's interesting and confusing how you're both right here and both should make money. I guess this is because of all the dead money that the other player have contributed.

I think I finally understand, and i really don't like the wording of that page.

Fellows, if I have this, and I think I do, this has been a very valuable lesson for me.

I'm indebted...but don't expect an interplayer trasfer of funds! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[QTip]

I think I do chief...please check out my last post and see if I'm on it.

Thanks so much...I love to understand. Next time I'll make the right play.

[lmbree]

That is exactly what I think about that paragraph. Obviously with a very large pot, you just want to win it with the bet or raise, because who you are playing against is making a mistake by folding...

Let me say, this thread was great for me to read. Damn, you guys know a lot and I have a lot to learn. Thanks.

[QTip]

You know what really makes this interesting...

Imagine the trips decide to fold this just every now and then, which happens (by some frickin streak of luck) to be the times when he wouldn't have outdrawn you. You play 30 hands and he gets all 10 correct.....wouldn't it be great!!

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Just a thought...

[QTip]

I knew party was rigged!!

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Fat Nicky]

Your explanation seems ok to me.

Just simply remember, that even when your opponents have the odds to call, you're still winning money when they do call correctly, but you would like it better if they folded.

[krishanleong]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned, but raising opens the possiblity for a 3-bet and cap. The chance to cap with the nuts is another reason to raise.

Krishan

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if anyone has mentioned, but raising opens the possiblity for a 3-bet and cap. The chance to cap with the nuts is another reason to raise.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3-bet while you are holding the nuts in a multiway pot is some hot hardcore action.

[QTip]

The more money the better...

[QTip]

So...it boils down to what I read in a post from Ed Miller the other day...

"When you can't protect, bet for value"

Sometimes you hear things, and just don't have the background understanding to make sense of it.

I started looking at this hand earlier and was like "Hey! That was really a great play!"...LOL!!! What an idiot! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Well...I'm moving on now..

Thanks everyone.

[DMBFan23]

QTip,

I would interpret the ToP passage about large pots to mean that there is an "inflection point" if you will where the amount of the pot he forfeits by folding is greater than the 2 bets needed to call. this might happen anytime he passes up drawing to a 5 outer or whatever because he fears your hand is stronger than it actually is, or when he folds a gutshot getting 10-1 because there's a flush draw on the board, and he doesnt know that no one holds clubs.

that's the best I can make of it.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
The villain's +EV or -EV call is interesting here. It would seem that if he has a -EV call, no matter how slight, you gain (as in make more money than when he folds)when he calls even though he may outdraw you a certain number of times.

Whereas, if it's a +EV call, you still make money, but not as much as if he folded all the time...so he costs you some money with his call but your still good. It's interesting and confusing how you're both right here and both should make money. I guess this is because of all the dead money that the other player have contributed.


[/ QUOTE ]
You got it.

[QTip]

Just downloaded Pokerstove....very cool! Thanks man!

[jediael]

Never ever slowplay in big pots.
You risk the entire huge pot just in order to maybe get an addtional bet? It's not worth it