TPTK laydown

[MaxPower]

In this hand the BB is slightly loose and very aggressive (28/15). UTG+1 is an ultraloose calling station. MP1 is a very tight and aggressive (13/7). I have played a lot of hands with him and he never gets out of line - a very solid player.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.33 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds

I was not worried about the BB - I put him on an ace with a lower kicker.

Did I read too much into the tight player's actions? Since he cold-called twice, I assumed I must be drawing dead or to 3-outs. There is some chance that I am ahead, but it is not high. Is there another line I should take?

Thanks.

[jfunk]

I think you have to bet the turn. MP may have TT or 77 but what if he has AQ? If you bet the turn this distinction becomes quite clear. If he just calls again he probably has AQ. If he raises, he most likely has a set of 7's, since he would probably 3-bet TT preflop.

[jfunk]

by the way, it's probably obvious but two pair is not an option for MP

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet the turn. MP may have TT or 77 but what if he has AQ? If you bet the turn this distinction becomes quite clear. If he just calls again he probably has AQ. If he raises, he most likely has a set of 7's, since he would probably 3-bet TT preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, if he's got a monster, he might very well wait for the river to make his first bet. He has a calling station behind him and a tight player in front of him. He knows that you should lead out for him every round whether or not you have a hand, but you might fold if raised. Why risk scaring the calling station at this point.

Now, there is no reason to assume that you are screwed. perosnally, I don't like the raise from the calling station, that always scares me, but who's to say that your tight player has not yet given up on his QQ/JJ? Why not AQ? You raised PF, do tight players call raises with 77? TT, maybe, but you can't automatically put him on that hand.

I lead the turn, perhaps check/call the river. Leading the turn prevents all those second best hands from feeling proud of themselves.

CSC

[jfunk]

I dont think QQ or JJ are possibilities. They would have definitely been three bet preflop. And such a tight aggressive player isnt going to cold call two bets with either of these hands on the flop. But regardless it is agreed that you should lead out on the turn. I also agree with check calling the river in most cases.

[Nate tha' Great]

I could see a player with these stats also playing another AK this way.

[amulet]

i lead out on the turn (plus you said your not to worried about BB). you may be beat, a set of TT's could be correct (77 is less likely from the player you describe). if your raised you can reevaluate. you hit the flop, and your reading another players call on one bet as knowing you are beat, and folding top pair top kicker. you better know your opponent enought to be certain. it is hard to be that certain. i think you misplayed this.

[MaxPower]

Here is the range of hands he could have

Hands I'm splitting with
AK - 6 ways

Hands I'm dominating
AQs - 2 ways
AJs - 2 ways

I'm drawing to 3 outs
ATs - 2 ways

I'm drawing dead.
TT - 3ways

A7s and 77 are possibilities, but I am taking them out.

When I work out my EV for each of these, factoring in the chance that I beat the cold-caller but lose to the Big Blind and the chance that I improve to the best hand, it is clear that I should call and probably see a showdown.

However, I don't think that each of these hands is easily likely given the way he played his hand. I think the chance that I am drawing dead is much higher that 3/15. But even if I make it 6/15, I probably still have a positive expectation.

Still, when do I just throw all of this out the window and go with my read, since I was at least 75% sure that he had pocket tens at the time. Since coming to the 2+2 forums I have stopped seing monsters under the bed, but I feel like I have swung too far and sometimes I cannot see my hand in front of my face. In the past few years, I have hardly ever laid down any decent hand. Lately I feel like I've been making much better reads and I've laid down some hands even in big pots. In every case I was right, but I wonder if I am taking this too far.