Big pot, I have a set

[brettbrettr]

CO is a tag, over 90 hands at least. Umm, can I slow down on the turn? Can't see slowing down on the river.


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (29.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 37.50 BB

[private joker]

Yikes. With only one way to have QQ, it's tough to slow down on this river. But I can't think of any other hand he would play this way on the turn. On the turn it looks so much like QQ that I'm likely to give him credit for it even when the river makes it improbable.

If he had AA or KK, his turn cap is absurd and you should change his read to LAG. Same with 77.

(Just realized he could also have A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif but that's still a ballsy turn cap).

[Jules22]

just because hes a tag doesnt mean that he isnt prone to overplaying strong, but not monster, hands. this said, it really does look a lot like he has qq, but what are you supposed to do, just call the river raise? this looks like a spot where, as funny as it seems, maybe going for a river check raise and calling a 3bet is a better line then betting out and getting capped. tough hand

[adamstewart]

That's a preflop fold, btw.



Having said that, pedal to the medal this whole hand and don't slow down.

Raise, re-raise, and cap whenever possible. Only hand you're losing to is QQ (and QT on the river, but that'd be a mighty stupid may to play QT).

[Other possible hands for CO include AA, KK, AQ (especially A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif), 77]


Edit: may not want to 3-bet the river. As by now, a villain with AA or KK probably wouldn't have raised you. And you are now behind to QQ *and* QT. I think this outweighs the possibility of villain overplaying AQ.



Adam

[Clarkmeister]

"That's a preflop fold, btw. "

C'mon now. That's really not an option in a multiway pot with some money already in the pot and a the 6th best hand in holdem.

[Clarkmeister]

"Umm, can I slow down on the turn? Can't see slowing down on the river."

You have it backwards. You can't slow down on the turn because the guys in the middle compensate you for the times you got cold decked. Once its headsup on the river, you should really just call the raise and not 3-bet.

[bisonbison]

nice hand.

I don't have a problem with the river 3-bet but I'm rusty.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
"That's a preflop fold, btw. "

C'mon now. That's really not an option in a multiway pot with some money already in the pot and a the 6th best hand in holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]


What would Ed Miller do here preflop? Seriously?


Personally, this is the way I look at it: Your position sucks. Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set. You're likely just a little ahead, or WAY BEHIND. You are very susceptible to overcards.

I REALLY respect your opinion, but I think this is a fold preflop.


Adam

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
"That's a preflop fold, btw. "

C'mon now. That's really not an option in a multiway pot with some money already in the pot and a the 6th best hand in holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the button, easy call. In the SB, I'd fold.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm, can I slow down on the turn? Can't see slowing down on the river.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. If you were behind on the turn, you are now destroyed on the river.

[PokerBob]

The beauty of online (at least in this case) is that it is capped at 4-bets. I'd slow down on the river after he 6-bet. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
On the button, easy call. In the SB, I'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[cjromero]

I don't see folding this preflop. Given that UTG raised initially and MP1 and MP2 already cold called the first time around, they will certainly all see the flop. That's almost 8 to 1.

If you don't hit a ten on flop and overcards come, it is a hand you can easily get away from.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adam, count the pot and count how many bets you need to make up postflop.

[chief444]

You're position doesn't suck so much when you flop a set.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm, can I slow down on the turn? Can't see slowing down on the river.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. If you were behind on the turn, you are now destroyed on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is a dumb comment--and its aleady been pointed out that it was dumb. Thank you for reminding me /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

When I intially said it it was just that he was solid, and I didn't expect him to overplay AA/KK like that. 77 or AQs are hands I could see him cold-calling with pre-flop, but not 3-betting, not with the cold-callers.

Felt like I was facing QQ on the turn, so I wanted to slow down, or at least I figured I was behind. Then the river makes the queen's less likely, which is why I said what I said at the time I said it.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adam, count the pot and count how many bets you need to make up postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 players apparently commited when it's 3 bets (actually 2.5 bets) to our Hero. For a set, Hero needs 7:1, so needs to make at least 17.5 small bets. Four players times 3 bets equals 12. So, no, 5.5 small bets doesn't seem like a lot to have to make up.

However, Hero runs the risk of REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS when he gets beat by SET OVER SET.

Further, a large amount of the time this will get capped preflop. So, Hero is actually putting in 3.5, and must make 24.5 small bets. 4 players times 4 bets equals 16. So it's actually an 8.5 small bet deficit most of the time.

Again, though:

Reverse implied odds. Domination. Slightly ahead, or WAY BEHIND. Crappy position....


Fold preflop.

Edit: Sorry, didn't take into account Big Blind's small bet, which may be dead or active. Either way, there's a lot pointing towards this being a fold

Adam

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adam, count the pot and count how many bets you need to make up postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 players apparently commited when it's 3 bets (actually 2.5 bets) to our Hero. For a set, Hero needs 7:1, so needs to make at least 17.5 small bets. Four players times 3 bets equals 12. So, no, 5.5 small bets doesn't seem like a lot to have to make up.

However, Hero runs the risk of REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS when he gets beat by SET OVER SET.

Further, a large amount of the time this will get capped preflop. So, Hero is actually putting in 3.5, and must make 24.5 small bets. 4 players times 4 bets equals 16. So it's actually an 8.5 small bet deficit most of the time.

Again, though:

Reverse implied odds. Domination. Slightly ahead, or WAY BEHIND. Crappy position....


Fold preflop.

Edit: Sorry, didn't take into account Big Blind's small bet, which may be dead or active. Either way, there's a lot pointing towards this being a fold

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

On the average, I think making up 7SB's postflop is about right. It will get capped some of the time but not 50% of the time (and certainly not "a large amount" of the time), given the range of UTG raising hands to UTG capping hands.

The case for reverse implied odds isn't nearly as strong as the case for implied odds, as set over set in multiway pots only happens once in ~167 times. That's not a significant deficit; on the average, when you make your set, you'll be dealing with &gt; 75% equity in the pot. I simply don't think reverse implied odds have as large of an effect as you seem to think.

Rob

[Entity]

Article on set over set happenings in multiway situations. (http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/)

Rob

[Munga30]

Hey everyone, it's Jim Brier!! Welcome back, Jim.

Just kidding, Adam. But worrying about the reverse implied odds of set over set is silly. The extra bets you collect (above the 5.5) the many many times you do not suffer a loss to a higher set much more than compensate for those times you do.

[meep_42]

The pot is large, the board is drawy, does anyone not lead the flop and try to c/r the pf 3-bettor to better protect your hand?

I call the river raise also, as unlikely as QQ is.

-d

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
However, Hero runs the risk of REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS when he gets beat by SET OVER SET.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can count on two hands the number of times I've been involved in set over set out of 120K online hands. I think your time is better spent worrying about prostate cancer, which will occur with 100% percent certainty if you live long enough.

[Clarkmeister]

"What would Ed Miller do here preflop? Seriously?"

He'd call. Seriously.

"Your position sucks"

My relative position is great. Plus I get a discount on my call.

"Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set"

Of course it does. Fortunately there are 4 opponents and this is online which tends to be very aggressive postflop, which is very condusive to our hand.

"You are very susceptible to overcards. "

So? I'm about 40% to flop an overpair or set. That's pretty dang nice. You folding AK here?

Lets assume it gets capped and the BB folds. We have to call 3.5sbs in a 17.5sb pot. I'd say you need about 8-1 here. Sometimes you flop a set and lose, sometimes you flop an overpair and it's good. Don't discount the idea that you have the biggest pair, it's going to be the case more than I think you are giving it credit for.

Anyways, going with 8-1, you need to make up 5.5BBs postflop (28sbs vs the 17.5 that the pot is offering you when the BB folds and it gets capped). Frankly, in a situation like this, that's a piece of cake. Plus, it might not get capped and you need to recoup even less postflop.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is large, the board is drawy, does anyone not lead the flop and try to c/r the pf 3-bettor to better protect your hand?
-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that 5 players called 3 bets pre-flop, I thought at the time that even a flush draw would have the odds to call 2 cold. I also didn't think the the CO TAG would need to have hit to flop to raise my bet, so I hoped I'd be able to 3-bet when it got back to me. Yes, it seems risky and assumes a hell of a lot, but I was hoping to protect my hand AND get more $ in the pot with my set. It worked perfectly in this case though like I said it assumes a hell of a lot.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your time is better spent worrying about prostate cancer, which will occur with 100% percent certainty if you live long enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this is incorrect.

While the chances of developing Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) dramatically accumulate with age, the correlation between age and prostatic "cancer" (i.e. adenocarcinoma) is not nearly as strong.

For example, 40% of men 40-49 years of age will have BPH and 90% of men over 70 years of age will it. (This, I believe, is what you were referring to)

The incidence of prostatic cancer does increase with age, but I very much doubt that it would approach a 100% correlation. (Keeping in mind that BPH is *not* a risk factor for prostatic cancer).

Regards, /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Adam

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
"What would Ed Miller do here preflop? Seriously?"

He'd call. Seriously.

"Your position sucks"

My relative position is great. Plus I get a discount on my call.

"Calling 3-bets kills your implied odds even when you do hit a set"

Of course it does. Fortunately there are 4 opponents and this is online which tends to be very aggressive postflop, which is very condusive to our hand.

"You are very susceptible to overcards. "

So? I'm about 40% to flop an overpair or set. That's pretty dang nice. You folding AK here?

Lets assume it gets capped and the BB folds. We have to call 3.5sbs in a 17.5sb pot. I'd say you need about 8-1 here. Sometimes you flop a set and lose, sometimes you flop an overpair and it's good. Don't discount the idea that you have the biggest pair, it's going to be the case more than I think you are giving it credit for.

Anyways, going with 8-1, you need to make up 5.5BBs postflop (28sbs vs the 17.5 that the pot is offering you when the BB folds and it gets capped). Frankly, in a situation like this, that's a piece of cake. Plus, it might not get capped and you need to recoup even less postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thank you very much for your detailed and thoughtful response. This has cleared things up for me.


Adam

[sfer]

Ni han. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Ni han. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks... must be the medical student in me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Adam

[meep_42]

Gutshots got correct odds to call every bet the way you played it. I don't think it's a big mistake (if it's a mistake at all), i'm just wondering if the added protection of facing the field with 2 cold would be advantageous.

I also think there's about a 0% chance this flop gets checked through.

-d

[MRBAA]

Clark plays good. Yeah, it's a pretty easy call with multiway action preflop -- TT is a nice hand. And yeah, you pound the money in on the flop and turn multiway and slow down hu on the river (although I'd probably have kept raising as the poster did in the actual hand).

[Borodog]

Am I the only one who wants to know how the hand turned out, or did I miss it? I'm assuming the TAG had QQ?

[Big John D]

[ QUOTE ]
"That's a preflop fold, btw. "

C'mon now. That's really not an option in a multiway pot with some money already in the pot and a the 6th best hand in holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually would have thought seriously about capping PF with all those guaranteed-to-call-anythings in the pot PF.

Would that have been OK here?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who wants to know how the hand turned out, or did I miss it? I'm assuming the TAG had QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even remember what he had.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't even remember what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you won the hand?

You put the hand history into the converter, but you don't remember what he had?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[brettbrettr]

I'm kidding, jeez. He had QQ and MHING.

[Borodog]

My apologies. It was non-obvious to me.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
"What would Ed Miller do here preflop? Seriously?"

He'd call. Seriously.



[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's a genius post-flop.

I've been sticking to his book recommendations and then going off-book based on reads. He writes that against a raise and a 3-bet preflop, you should dump TT. If the players I'm up against are rocks, I can assume I'm facing AA-JJ such a large number of times that flopping an overpair does me no good, and I'm reduced to hoping for a set. But when my opponents are loose, aggressive, or non-thinking, I'll call here and outplay them post-flop if I can.

[Shillx]

You have to consider the action as well.

If you are on the button and the action goes UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, all fold to you on the button then yeah fold. This is a no-brainer.

If it goes UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 3 coldcallers then you better not be folding any pair on the button. Calling 3-bets cold is situational with pairs and it usually depends on how many coldcallers take the plunge. Getting mixed up with TT in a 3-way pot with EP raisers isn't wise though. Throw in coldcallers and I'm calling all day long.

Brad

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting mixed up with TT in a 3-way pot with EP raisers isn't wise though. Throw in coldcallers and I'm calling all day long.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Throw in coldcallers, and I'm calling with any pocket pair.