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View Full Version : Coin flips and fear


Goodnews
02-16-2005, 06:34 PM
On Sunday Feb. 13, I played a tournament and got blinded out on the first level. The main cause was one pot where I aggressively bet out from mid position with my AKs, only to get reraised all in by the button. I had a read on the button already and hes not the brightest type, and was probably holding low to mid pocket pairs. It was a coin flip for all my chips. I folded.

Later that day I was playing on one of the NL side ring games and won back my tournament buy-in when AKs comes to me again in late position. I had one caller in mid-position and the rest folded to me, again I followed my standard line of raising aggressively. It was folded to the mid position caller and he re-raised me all in for more or less all of my stack. I put him on low to mid pairs because of his attempt to limp so that he might spike one on the flop. I also put the possibility that he was playing a line from SS by limping with AA or KK and hoping for a raise preflop. But threw that one out the window the second I remembered him not seeing his hand of AA22K turn into AAKK2... Another coinflip. I fold.

So today I was in the can thinking about an earlier post of logic and instinct and how one particular player had the urge to push pocket tens when he had a read of cowboys or rockets on the other player. Except in this case, my instinct is more cautious. Am I losing money by being pushed off my coinflips when I already have something invested in it?

I understand in the long run I will break even, and that's all it will ever be, even. What worries me is my short term, since I move alot of money around and it is often tied up during withdrawals from different sites and busting out in certain situations means I can't play for a couple of days.

Am I losing on the long run by not taking coin flips in which I am already 'committed' to. Which incidentally is saving on the short run.

I don't understand what to do in those situations, the way I reasoned it out was that I decided to save my money so I can play a hand where I have a definite edge in. Is this logic better or worse than being able to take the risk of busting out?

TStoneMBD
02-18-2005, 02:53 AM
if youre worried about bankroll, you shouldnt be playing.

push your ev to its maximum extent. if you are getting a 30% pot odd advantage on a 50/50 coin flip, and fold, its because you estimate that you have a 31%+ rate of return over the long haul against the tournament competition.

if you dont understand this concept then reread this paragraph over and over until you do, because its necessary.

jskills
02-18-2005, 10:41 AM
AK is the type of hand to get all your money in before the flop. Recently finished reading Slansky's Tournament Poker - there is a section that talked about that.

It's always best if you're the one pushing in first of course.

Kaz The Original
02-18-2005, 01:08 PM
He is talking about tournament play, your post is not correct. In tournaments, survival is sometimes more important than EV.

Awesemo
02-18-2005, 02:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Am I losing money by being pushed off my coinflips when I already have something invested in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the reason why they are called coinflips is because there is enough dead money in the pot to justify both players going allin.

pokerrookie
02-18-2005, 02:45 PM
One was a NL sidegame.

Pov
02-18-2005, 02:51 PM
I'm not much of a tournament player just yet so I'll leave that alone. As another poster already stated, staying alive in the early stages may be higher EV depending upon whether you think you'll have enough future profitable situations to make up for passing on the coin flip, but in the ring game you may be making a big mistake because you have already raised and you're ignoring your pot odds.

Your AKs is roughly 48% to win against a hand like 99 so you're definitely behind if your read is correct and he has a middle pair, but unless your stack is deep compared to your preflop raise before being put all in you may well have the odds to call here. If there were other limpers who have now dropped out you would be even more likely to have the odds.

Let's say you are playing $1/$2 blinds and you have exactly $100 before the hand starts. The MP player limps in for $2 and you make it $10 to go (how much *did* you make it to go?). The blinds fold and the MP player puts you all in. There is now $15 of dead money in the pot between the blinds, the limp and your initial raise. The $90 you have to put in to win $105 means you only need to win 46% of the time to come out ahead so folding is incorrect *if* your read is true.

Obviously you'll have some high fluctuations with this move so maybe you want to fold it for that reason and the size of the rake compared to the dead money you're fighting for is a big consideration as well, but assuming you have the bankroll you could be making a mistake here and it's definitely worth some extra thought.

If anyone sees any flaws in this analysis, please rip me a new one as I don't want to be making this mistake if I am wrong here. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Apologies if you're more interested in the tournament aspect.