98s late

For some reason I keep getting 98s in the blinds late in tourneys.

So I would like peoples thoughts.
1st, what odds would you want to play them head ups?

Now for the most recent situation.

$12 buyin limit hold em. About 105 people. Down to two tables, 18 left. Final table pays 10. Tourney ends with 4 people left, but their is a high probability of chopping around 8 people left.

Blinds are 2000-4000, next hand it goes up to 4000-8000

I'm in the BB with 7000 left after posting.
UTG raises, he has around 15K after the raise.
All fold to me.
He does not appear to be a maniac, but I just got moved there.
So if i play my last 7000 i can win 24000.
Also the blinds are going up so if i don't play my next hand i'll have 3000 left.

I called. J32 rainbow, none of my suit.
I checked and folded to his bet.

I think i should have called after the flop hoping he was just on an ace of smaller pp.

I know it was positive EV on my call preflop. But with the much higher value of chips with so few left, I think I should have folded and waited for an ace or pp to play.

Thanks

SD

I got no responses so I guess it was a tough question.
Or else Ignatius and Fossilman either don't like this format or have been busy of late.

Well, I did some analysis on it and determined it was pretty much a tossup.

Given his situation I hypothesized he had either AJ-AK or pocket pairs of JJ or better, maybe TT.

I was getting about 2.5:1 odds and had a little better than that % chance of winning. With the extra value of my chips remaining compared to value of those i could win, I think I should have thrown them away, but was very very close.

Then for my last 3K in chips as I called, i was getting 7.3:1 odds. With the likelihood of hands I had about 13.5% chance of winning, which is about 6.5:1.
I think my last 3K of chips goes down in value at this high blinds level as I would need to triple up or survive my big and little blinds to make it through.
If I win the long shot I make the final table and have a current above average stack. Making it worth the 6.5:1 shot.
But not by a lot.

So I think I made a small error calling the flop.
And I small error not betting/calling post flop (no way he was going to fold though. i was hoping he'd check then i'd bet the turn, but he'd have to suck for that too).

If anyone is interested in how I did these calculations let me know. It was pretty much the way A bit of maths articles are done in Poker Pages then I used that twodimes site for calculating chance to win.

SD

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Your second post is right, I don't like this new format. All the bells and whistles are more an annoyance than a benefit, and it's harder to look at this format and know at a glance what's going on.

Also, the registration process takes time, and so some folks have probably not done it. I almost just quit, and still might, as I've been kind of looking for an excuse to spend less time here.

Anyway, to your question.

You posted over 1/3 of your money in the blind, and will not make the money by merely folding your way around. That means you must win a pot, so it might as well be this one. I think that folding is out of the question. So, I would call preflop, and then bet all-in at that flop, hoping that the UTG player might fold. I don't expect him to do so, but he might, and since you're not going to fold, you might as well give him a chance to do so.

The real problem here was more likely one of the last few hands that you folded before posting the blind. If there was any realistic chance that everyone would fold to your raise, then you should've made one, even if your hand was garbage. For example, if your previous hand, when you were UTG, was Q5o, and there was maybe a 20% chance that everyone would fold to your raise, then you should've raised then.

Don't be afraid to "play bad" in a tourney when short-stacked. Sometimes you're really playing good.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

first i hate that i can't get the email for my temp password so i can't use my sdplayer name.

i really really hope you don't leave fossilman. i can understand why you would.
but the amount i have learned from you has been just huge for me. honestly no way i take 2nd place at my last NL tourney without the knowledge i have gained from your posts.
if you do leave, if there is any possible way i could email you with a question time to time, i would be most appreciative. if not, i totally understand.

now back to the hand. yep, i wussed. i knew i should have done exactly what you said. especially with the limits going up i had to call.

i had no opportunity to raise before. i found JJ once in MP. but UTG called with a good stack i had a good read i was in trouble. i was right, KK.

since this was just a $12 buyin, it was by no means a tight tourney. so very very likely to get called on an early raise. so couldn't risk $11K to get $6K unless i thought i could win. Any pair, A or K7 or better or Q9 or better and i would have gone for it, but i got all garbage.

From you past posts I already have learned not to wait to get blinded, so I go for it with anything decent and have done very very well with that strategy.

Thanks as always. I've been agonizing on this hand mainly because I know similar ones will occur in the future. The money was minor. But i'm looking forward to some vegas NL tourneys next month on my trip there.

SD

[Ignatius]

As usual, Greg is right on target here - with the new format, as well as the play of the hand.

Remains to be said that if you knew that UTG is extremly tight and would only raise with AA-TT, AK and AQs then you are better off mucking. As soon a he would always raise with AQo, calling would be slightly +EV. You might still consider to muck in that very case b/c next hand, the tight player will be in the BB and might fold to a steal raise after you called all-in.

cu

Ignatius

Greg - I agree with you - the new format is not as easy to use and makes following threads seem more complex. If you know of other sites, please let me know. In any case, please keep in touch with this site as your input has helped me become a better player.